We call this headache weather for a reason.
New models just went off in different directions, all with different possibilities. Right now it's trending north by only 5-10 miles on average but that changes the forecast drastically as far as type of precip is concerned. The mixing lines for each model are now:
GFS: 5 miles NORTH of NYC/LI
NAM: straight through NYC/LI
EURO: 10 miles south still
As you can see above, if you compare that with the picture of the storm in the prior post you'll see that red line now ABOVE NYC/LI instead of 10 miles below it. SO because of the fact that the line is closer to the point forecast area, we will need to change the forecast. The problem is that each of the following locations: (Central Park, JFK, LGA, Newark, Islip) will have a DIFFERENT forecast. Here we go:
KNYC (Central Park)
1PM-9PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.30-0.50" - snow 3-6"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - freezing rain (.10-.15" ice) & sleet 1-1.50"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-7" snow before mix, another inch of snow after
KJFK (JFK Airport)
1PM-10PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.05-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 2-3"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.50-0.70" - sleet 0.50-1.00", mixing with freezing rain 5-6AM and 12-2PM <.05" and mixing with rain in between 8AM-12PM 0.35-0.50"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid .25-.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
totals: 2-4" snow before the rain/f.rain/sleet mix, another inch of snow after
KLGA (La Guardia Airport)
1PM-9PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.30-0.50" - snow 3-6"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - freezing rain (.15-.30" ice) & sleet 1-1.25"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-7" snow before mix, ~.20" ICE with sleet, another inch of snow after
KISP (Islip/McGarthur Airport)
1PM-10PM - liquid trace - snow <0.10"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.03-0.07" - snow 0.25-0.75"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 2-3"
6AM-11AM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - snow ~.50" then sleet ~0.50", both mixing with rain 0.45-0.55"
11AM-5PM: - liquid 0.15-.0.25" - sleet 0.50-1.00", mixing with freezing rain 0.06-0.13"
5PM-9PM: - liquid .25-.75" - snow 0.50-1"
totals: 3-5" snow before mixing with rain, then w.mix, then another inch of snow after
KEWR (Newark Airport)
1PM-9PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.07-0.12" - snow 0.75-1.25"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.30-0.55" - snow 3-6"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.70" - freezing rain (.15-.30" ice) & sleet 1-2"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-8" snow before mix, ~.20" ICE with sleet, another inch of snow after
-Mike Merin
New models just went off in different directions, all with different possibilities. Right now it's trending north by only 5-10 miles on average but that changes the forecast drastically as far as type of precip is concerned. The mixing lines for each model are now:
GFS: 5 miles NORTH of NYC/LI
NAM: straight through NYC/LI
EURO: 10 miles south still
As you can see above, if you compare that with the picture of the storm in the prior post you'll see that red line now ABOVE NYC/LI instead of 10 miles below it. SO because of the fact that the line is closer to the point forecast area, we will need to change the forecast. The problem is that each of the following locations: (Central Park, JFK, LGA, Newark, Islip) will have a DIFFERENT forecast. Here we go:
KNYC (Central Park)
1PM-9PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.30-0.50" - snow 3-6"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - freezing rain (.10-.15" ice) & sleet 1-1.50"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-7" snow before mix, another inch of snow after
KJFK (JFK Airport)
1PM-10PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.05-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 2-3"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.50-0.70" - sleet 0.50-1.00", mixing with freezing rain 5-6AM and 12-2PM <.05" and mixing with rain in between 8AM-12PM 0.35-0.50"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid .25-.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
totals: 2-4" snow before the rain/f.rain/sleet mix, another inch of snow after
KLGA (La Guardia Airport)
1PM-9PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.30-0.50" - snow 3-6"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - freezing rain (.15-.30" ice) & sleet 1-1.25"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-7" snow before mix, ~.20" ICE with sleet, another inch of snow after
KISP (Islip/McGarthur Airport)
1PM-10PM - liquid trace - snow <0.10"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.03-0.07" - snow 0.25-0.75"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 2-3"
6AM-11AM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - snow ~.50" then sleet ~0.50", both mixing with rain 0.45-0.55"
11AM-5PM: - liquid 0.15-.0.25" - sleet 0.50-1.00", mixing with freezing rain 0.06-0.13"
5PM-9PM: - liquid .25-.75" - snow 0.50-1"
totals: 3-5" snow before mixing with rain, then w.mix, then another inch of snow after
KEWR (Newark Airport)
1PM-9PM - liquid 0.01-0.03" - snow 0.10-0.30"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.07-0.12" - snow 0.75-1.25"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.30-0.55" - snow 3-6"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.70" - freezing rain (.15-.30" ice) & sleet 1-2"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.25-.0.75" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-8" snow before mix, ~.20" ICE with sleet, another inch of snow after
-Mike Merin
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