Models are starting to agree that the low will redevelop around southern NJ instead of just above NYC, meaning that the chance for snow and freezing rain will still remain on Sunday night into Monday. The EURO/NAM both show this and call for low temps on Sunday night to be 26-28° with Monday highs only reaching 29-30° maybe 31° locally, but the GFS is still calling for Sunday night lows to be 28-30° with Monday highs reaching all the way up to 33°.
The problem is that the GFS is still places the low in south-central NJ so the temperature readings should be 1-2° lower in line with the EURO/NAM so it may be in the middle of correcting itself. Tonight's run or possibly tomorrow's run should help with consolidating all the data.
As it stands, the more south you go the greater chance of seeing rain on Monday vs. mixed precip, however again 5-10 miles with this storm north could mean more rain and 5-10 miles south could mean more snow and freezing rain. More certainty will come tomorrow.
Today into tonight and Sunday the precip will stay mostly north but there's still a slight chance of a passing rain shower, or snow shower mixed in if you're on LI.
Current timeline:
NYC
Today: 37° high
no precip
Tonight: 34° low
20% passing rain shower after 7PM
Sunday: 40° high
20% passing rain shower
Sun. night: 28° low
20% rain until 9PM
9PM-12AM increasing to 70% mix of rain and snow
12AM mix of rain and snow, f.rain possible as well
Monday: 30° high
100% precip, .15-.20" liquid falling
north half (N.Manhattan/Queens, LGA, Bronx) 0.50-1.50", <.01" f.rain, rest rain
south half (S.Manhattan/Brooklyn, S.Island, JFK, NJ) <.50" snow, <.01" f.rain, rest rain
subject to change if storm moves N/S as stated above.
Mon. Night: low 26°
100% --> 20% by 3AM, mix of snow and freezing rain (<.50" snow, .02-.06" ice)
Tuesday: High 38°
no precip
Long Island
Today: 35° high
no precip
Tonight: 33° low
20% passing rain or snow shower after 9PM
Sunday: 39° high
20% passing rain shower
Sun. night: 28° low
20% rain until 9PM
9PM-12AM increasing to 70% mix of rain and snow
12AM mix of rain and snow, up to .10" f.rain possible as well
Monday: 31° high, 34 south
100% precip, .15-.25" liquid falling
north half 0.50-1", <.01" f.rain, rest rain
south half <.25" snow, <.01" f.rain, rest rain
subject to change if storm moves N/S as stated above.
Mon. Night: low 25°
100% --> 20% by 3AM, mix of snow and freezing rain (<.50" snow, .02-.06" ice)
Tuesday: High 37°
no precip
The problem is that the GFS is still places the low in south-central NJ so the temperature readings should be 1-2° lower in line with the EURO/NAM so it may be in the middle of correcting itself. Tonight's run or possibly tomorrow's run should help with consolidating all the data.
As it stands, the more south you go the greater chance of seeing rain on Monday vs. mixed precip, however again 5-10 miles with this storm north could mean more rain and 5-10 miles south could mean more snow and freezing rain. More certainty will come tomorrow.
Today into tonight and Sunday the precip will stay mostly north but there's still a slight chance of a passing rain shower, or snow shower mixed in if you're on LI.
Current timeline:
NYC
Today: 37° high
no precip
Tonight: 34° low
20% passing rain shower after 7PM
Sunday: 40° high
20% passing rain shower
Sun. night: 28° low
20% rain until 9PM
9PM-12AM increasing to 70% mix of rain and snow
12AM mix of rain and snow, f.rain possible as well
Monday: 30° high
100% precip, .15-.20" liquid falling
north half (N.Manhattan/Queens, LGA, Bronx) 0.50-1.50", <.01" f.rain, rest rain
south half (S.Manhattan/Brooklyn, S.Island, JFK, NJ) <.50" snow, <.01" f.rain, rest rain
subject to change if storm moves N/S as stated above.
Mon. Night: low 26°
100% --> 20% by 3AM, mix of snow and freezing rain (<.50" snow, .02-.06" ice)
Tuesday: High 38°
no precip
Long Island
Today: 35° high
no precip
Tonight: 33° low
20% passing rain or snow shower after 9PM
Sunday: 39° high
20% passing rain shower
Sun. night: 28° low
20% rain until 9PM
9PM-12AM increasing to 70% mix of rain and snow
12AM mix of rain and snow, up to .10" f.rain possible as well
Monday: 31° high, 34 south
100% precip, .15-.25" liquid falling
north half 0.50-1", <.01" f.rain, rest rain
south half <.25" snow, <.01" f.rain, rest rain
subject to change if storm moves N/S as stated above.
Mon. Night: low 25°
100% --> 20% by 3AM, mix of snow and freezing rain (<.50" snow, .02-.06" ice)
Tuesday: High 37°
no precip
 |  |
As for now, the current surface map is deceiptively quiet. There's light flurries ahead of the front, but they should dissolve by the time they reach NYC and even moreso towards Long Island.
-Mike Merin
-Mike Merin
RSS Feed
