STORM NO. 1 - BELTED THE NORTHEAST YESTERDAY AND BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6" FOR NY METRO AND SOUTHERN CONN/ L.I. WITH MANY PLACES GETTING 6-8"...AND SOME SPOTS UP TO 9". THAT'S GONE. STORM # 2....YOU CAN SEE ON SATELLITE BELOW THRU OHIO VALLEY (BLUE). IT WILL SPLIT INTO 2...AND THAT MAKES FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR MAJOR CITIES OF NY AND PHL. CHICAGO GETS 5-6" OUT OF THIS..NEW ENGLAND GETS 6"-12"....NYC.....LONG ISLAND.....2"-4" - MORE IF CHANGE TO RAIN IS SMALL......LESS IF CHANGE TO RAIN IS LARGER.
INLAND NJ - LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO SOUTHERN CONN...EASILY
ANOTHER 6" OR SO WITH ICE. THIS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY ROUGHER THAN STORM NO. 1....STARTING LATE TONIGHT ....ENDING
LATE WEDNESDAY.
INLAND NJ - LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO SOUTHERN CONN...EASILY
ANOTHER 6" OR SO WITH ICE. THIS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY ROUGHER THAN STORM NO. 1....STARTING LATE TONIGHT ....ENDING
LATE WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE....MAP FOR WEDNESDAY. YOU CAN SEE THE SPLIT SYSTEM...ONE NEAR PITTSBURGH, PA...OTHER OFF DELAWARE...AND THE RAIN SNOW LINE (PURPLE) CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN N.J.
THRU SO. CONN. SYSTEM NO. 3 IS ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES.
THRU SO. CONN. SYSTEM NO. 3 IS ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES.
ABOVE...GFS MODEL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWS A RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW OFF THE COAST WITH SNOW COVERING THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THIS ONE. AS ONE THE EXPERTS SAID FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAID.....THIS COULD BE A ROBUST STORM OR NEXT TO NOTHING..... UNDECIDED....YES ! BEFORE I SHOW MAP DEPICTED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. FOR SUNDAY....WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS BANKING ON A STORM.....I WILL TELL YOU THAT I STILL THINK THIS WILL BECOME A CLASSIC NOR'EASTER AND I WOULD BANK ON HEAVY SNOW HITTING MID ATLANTIC - NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MODELS WILL COME AROUND TO THIS THINKING BY LATE WEEK. WE ....AS FORECASTERS....HAVE TO REMEMBER...THAT THESE MODELS OFF "GUIDANCE"....THEY ARE NOT THE WEATHER BIBLE.
WE TAKE OUR KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE AND APPLY IT TO WHAT WE SEE. SOMETIMES IT WORKS...OTHER TIMES IT DOES NOT. TRUTHFULLY...I HOPE I AM DEAD WRONG BECAUSE ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. BELOW..PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP YOU POSTED...BE CAREFUL TNTE AND WEDNESDAY. LATER.
MONDAY. MODELS WILL COME AROUND TO THIS THINKING BY LATE WEEK. WE ....AS FORECASTERS....HAVE TO REMEMBER...THAT THESE MODELS OFF "GUIDANCE"....THEY ARE NOT THE WEATHER BIBLE.
WE TAKE OUR KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE AND APPLY IT TO WHAT WE SEE. SOMETIMES IT WORKS...OTHER TIMES IT DOES NOT. TRUTHFULLY...I HOPE I AM DEAD WRONG BECAUSE ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. BELOW..PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP YOU POSTED...BE CAREFUL TNTE AND WEDNESDAY. LATER.
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