First off if you're south of central CT, there won't be any snow for you to shovel! The bad news for those north of that line though won't be the snow as much as it will be the wet ground freezing into ice. So for those of you seeing rain during the day and snow during the night, just be careful of black ice on the roads and for any ice hiding under the snow.

The surface map may not look like much, but the radar tells another story.

The north will have frigid temperatures with highs in some areas only at -10°F and the wind chills will be even worse with -40°F widespread but -50°F locally. Lows will be in 30° to 40° below zero as well.

New Years at midnight for many areas will be quite cold as well, and Times Square will be around the mid 20's so not too bad (last year was around the same within a few degrees).

After today's the wet day we'll be in the clear until Thursday when the temperatures will drop even more and many areas will see snow showers. Make sure you have your umbrellas at the ready for today though.

-Mike Merin

The trends in the models are bringing the storm system through the northeast at a faster pace, and also centered further north, thus resulting in a warmer situation, and much less snow likely throughout sections of New York and New England.

The Infrared imagery from this Saturday afternoon shows the storm in the southeast with plenty of moisture and it will retain all of it and more as it traverses up the eastern seaboard Sunday.

The GFS models form midday today bring the Low right across Long Island by 7 pm ET. The center may be travel bit slightly further north but the overall path is northeast, into the night.  Even portions of Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire & southern Maine will be susceptible to a decent amount of rainfall to wash away any threats of a major winter storm.  In the more mountainous regions further north and the mainland of Maine is where the threat for major snow accumulations will be.

After this passes, the Arctic High that will bring many negative temperatures to the upper Midwest on Sunday & Monday will bring 10's and 20's to parts of the Northeast to finish off 2013.

- JL

Quite the disparity in the US in the upcoming week. As you work your way out from Minnesota and the Dakotas, it'll start off incredibly cold and then slowly look like Summer temps as you go Southeast and the fall elsewhere. It's hard to believe that the shortest day of the year was yesterday with these temps.

Much of the nation will see record highs today, some beating it by as much as 5-10° in areas like NC and Delmarva. It's areas though like the northern plains that would make most people want to stay inside as lows will drop well into the negative 20's with wind chills in some spots at 40° below zero, ouch. Tomorrow's lows will be even lower for those states, with negative 30's for temps and as low as -50° wind chills.

As far as the current precip though, the strong Low is still sitting between the Great Lakes and the Atlantic with plenty of moisture strewn about it. From Chicago through the US/Canada border will see a wintry mix with a widespread area within it seeing dangerous freezing rain and even ice storms. As you follow the cold front itself you'll see the heaviest bands of rain bringing areas of flash flooding, with even thunderstorms in Kentucky that will make its way through the central states.

Yes that's right, concentrated strong and severe thunderstorms in December. It's supposed to be Winter right? I'm not complaining though, after all you don't have to shovel rain.

-Mike Merin

The stories for this weekend are the record high temperatures hitting the Eastern US, but also the storm that is accompanying all that warm air.

The national IR map shows the center of the low pressure system in the general Texas area and the extensive distance the associated fronts with it covers (all the way through to Maine and further northeast.

The flow can be seen also by looking at the 500 mb plot by observing the wind barbs, dipping down west of the Rockie Mountains and flowing back up through Texas & the Gulf of Mexico. The red numbers next to each plot represents 500mb heights or thicknesses in decameters (dm). The height values in the southeast are reaching 5700 meters (decameters x 10) and higher, values you do not tend to see on the first day of winter but much earlier in the Fall, and we can associate these values with warmer air temperatures. These are producing record highs today in many areas and will continue to do into Sunday.

This system is a very complex one and will take time to move out, producing severe weather in the southeast, but tame rain showers in the northeast... By late Monday and into Tuesday morning, the cold front will have passed on and the frigid air will return once again just in time for Christmas Eve and subsequently Christmas Day on Wednesday.

While some light snow activity could be seen Tuesday off of the Great Lakes, conditions for Christmas for right now in the Northeast appear to be dry, cold and not quite a "White Christmas".



- JL

For two days we've seen a winter storm hurl itself across the nation, and last night the NY metro area said hello to it. Though NY escaped with only a few inches of rain and minimal ice before heavy rain helped out, starting from West Chester and going north, into central PA, even parts of the region closer to NYC such as Northern NJ was a different story as you can see from the 2-day snowfall map below.

This is only part of the story though as many areas experienced freezing rain for numerous hours with the temperature inversion. Places in SE PA saw up to .3" of ice accumulations ON TOP of the snowfall, while parts of southern central MA and northern CT saw up to an astonishing .4"

And even for those who didn't receive any freezing rain, last night the snow partially melted during the night as temps rose as high as 34°F before refreezing once again as the temperatures suddenly dropped below 32°F. This caused nightmares on the roads as black ice formed in many plowed areas, and even worse in unplowed areas (as I can see out of my window now).

There's still more snow in the forecast for today, but it's all north of Boston with Maine still getting hammered:

Now this is different than sleet which is only partial melting of the snow and results in slushier (temps are usually slightly above 32°F). You can see in the graphic below how each of these look.

So with this storm over and done with for the NY metro area, the next low pressure system moving through will be on Tuesday. For NY it'll be rain, but as you go North there's another chance of snow in the morning/night with rain during the afternoon to break it up, but North still will be all snow.

Careful on the roads tonight as temperatures will dip well below freezing again and all the snow that melts today may become black ice. Keep an eye out and be safe.

-Mike Merin

The amount of moisture that this system houses along with its size are both quite remarkable. The snow has been moderate to heavy for much of Pennsylvania, and scattered in both frequency and intensity through New York, and southern New England. The rain-snow line will start to shift north slowly though as the low pressure system moves through the Mid-Atlantic states and just south of Long Island, and then northeast past Boston into tomorrow.

The forecasted track of the system has not varied much in the past couple of days and continues to stay rather true to what we've been expecting. Freezing rain will be more of a concern inland (such as the Bronx, central Connecticut, and northeast New Jersey, as opposed to directly on the coast. This will cause issues to both road conditions and tree limbs and power lines.

Expected snowfall totals in the NY metropolitan area are as follows... Upwards of 6" in the NYC Metro area and much of Long Island (though lesser amounts along the east end of Long Island), Just north & west of New York City, 4"-8" with higher amounts towards northern Orange and Putnam counties and into northern Connecticut, southern Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. Up to a foot or more is possible in much of Pennsylvania, and into New Hampshire & Maine.

Conditions turn try for most areas late Sunday and could see a bit of sunshine as well, especially throughout Monday, both quite windy days.

***It is highly recommended that you do not travel this evening unless absolutely necessary and be extremely cautious if you must as weather like this can prove to be very hazardous to the roadways.***

- JL

Saturday has been a rather quiet day across the country. The big story for this Saturday has been the cold air across the central US that would be abnormal for the middle of winter. Temperatures as south as Texas are in the 10's while many areas in states along the Canadian border did not even crack -10 F today.

Today we'll take a look at the Water Vapor to look at where all the moisture in the atmosphere is situated.

A defining pattern of flow can be seen here from southwest to northeast. This pattern will continue as Low pressure will surge along the Gulf coast and up the eastern seaboard to finish off the weekend.

By early Monday, there will be 2 centers of low pressure, one in the Great Lakes region, the other just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The secondary low will produce the bulk of the moisture that will range from snow showers late Sunday, to a mix with sleet & freezing rain in many areas of the mid-atlantic states overnight into Monday. Along the interior of this region, more snow is expected with colder air but accumulations are still expected to be rather light, an inch at most for many areas... The main concern will not be snow accumulation but rather the amount of mixed precipitation that falls as sleet and freezing rain cause even more problems. Closer to the coast, rainfall is expected most of Monday and will erase the aftermath from the Sunday evening event.

Much more will be specifically known tomorrow morning in terms of how spread out the mixed precipitation will be so check back for Mike Merin's discussion tomorrow.

- JL