Satellite - radar shows cold front over Great Lakes with showers headed for Northeast Saturday. Showers southern Plains. Wet weather pushing up to Florida...tropical disturbance there . Below....animated maps for the next couple of days. .....not changing much from above.
Below - rainfall projections for the next 7 days......looks like Florida hits the jackpot with over 5" of rain....and more to come.
Below - tropical Atlantic Basin. System from Cuba could become Nate...and it could bring heavy rains across Florida during next week. Track for that disturbance also included.
Finally - look at high temperatures for next Thursday. A complete flip-flop from this weekend's scheme of things. Be safe.
Maria moving out to sea and will join up with Lee and head for Spain.
A tropical disturbance will haunt Florida next 5 days. Cool weather across the North. Below...animated maps for the next 2 days.
Below - look at the tropical Atlantic Basin.
Below - high temperatures for this Sunday....compared to projections for next Thursday.
Lastly - amounts of rain over next 7 days....sorry Florida . Be safe.
Aside from Maria moving into the Atlantic now....a cold front from Great Lakes to Texas will move east and bring fall weather to the East by this weekend. Something is also trying to form south of Cuba and it may bring wet weather to Florida. Below...animated weather maps for the next 2 days followed by chance of severe weather today in dark green.
Close up satellite views of Maria and Lee - in the Atlantic and he too...moving away.
Lastly....track of Maria. Be safe.
Above...satellite - radar depicting Maria off N. Carolina....cold front in Midwest. Below - track of Maria.
Below- animation of maps for next 2 days. Cold front in Midwest moves east and will bring an end to the record summer weather in the East by end of week. Following...risk of severe weather today.....in dark green.
Below - current warnings for East Coast.....then rainfall outlook for the next 5 days.....which indicates most of the nation to be dry. Be safe.
Jose continues to hit Cape Cod with wind and heavy rain. That may not improve until late weekend as Jose is nearly moving. As drier air continue to move into his circulation...he will continue to weaken. Below..Maria....which looks to be weakening on satellite pictures...but still a strong Cat 2 hurricane. Her tracks follow.
Below...animated maps for the weekend. Heaviest weather will extend across The Plains with a stalled front producing heavy rain and storms.
Some places will get over 4" of rain over the next 5 days. Maps will show where the severe risk is today...and rainfall projections next 5 days.
Thought I would diverge a little since the tropics have been "the Weather"...most models showing quite a change by next weekend. Right ow the GFS model leads the pack as being most aggressive. It should quite a storm for The East next weekend along with significantly cooler temperatures. A look at that map below...for now...have a safe weekend and welcome to Fall.
Maria is back to a major hurricane with winds up to 125 mph. She heads across the Eastern Bahamas and then north. Most of the models take her through the Atlantic and away from the EastCoast...nevertheless...needs to be watched early next week. Below...track of Maria.
Below - satellite/radar showing Jose off Cape Cod and weakening while doing a loop. Following....amounts of rainfall for next 5 days.
Below- animated maps for the next 2 days followed by threat of severe weather in dark green.
Maria's eye on satellite pre-dawn Wednesday - near St. Croix - headed for Puerto Rico with 160-200 mph winds. Below...track of Maria and amounts of rain predicted.
A look at Atlantic basin. New disturbance in Atlantic could become Nate. Right now - he is expected to move north in the open Atlantic. Maria...still needs to be watched as she heads north off the East Coast next week.
Below - satellite shows Jose off New England and his track which will be anything but text book like.
Finally - todays risk of severe weather...followed by animated maps for the next 2 days.
Hurricane Maria - A Cat 4 - with 155 mph winds raked across Domenica overnite..heads for Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and tonight. Below..track..model tracks..amounts of rain.
Satellite- radar - shows front in Midwest with showers...Jose off Mid Atlantic Coast. Below...track of Jose...Wind and Surf Projection maps. The heaviest rain and wind from Jose...over Cape Cod.
Below - animated National Map for the next 2 days...+ severe outlook for today in dark green and yellow. Be safe.
The eye of Jose will remain 200-250 miles away from NYC as it approaches but will veer away to the east. An outer band of precipitation will first hit Tuesday morning around 5AM, at 5PM it will approach and weaken before moving East, Wednesday at 5AM it will be closest to Montauk, Wednesday 3PM closest to Cape Cod, then over the following 72 hours will stall off the coast and circle around itself.
Here's an update on Jose for the NY metro area:
Rain and wind timeline
NYC | Islip | Montauk
Rain: .10" | .20" | .35"
Winds: 15-18MPH | 17-22MPH | 23-28MPH
Rain: .20" | .45" | .50"
Winds: 18-22 MPH | 22-25MPH | 30-33MPH G44
Rain: .20" | .45" | .55"
Winds: 22-24MPH | 25-32MPH G44 | 33-35MPH G47
Rain: .45" | .90" | 1"
Winds: 21-24MPH | 31-32MPH G44 | 34MPH G47
Rain: .15" | .35" | .80"
Winds: 24 => 18MPH | 32 G44 => 23MPH | 34-36MPH G46
Rain: <.10" | .10" | .30"
Winds: 18 => 14MPH | 23 => 17MPH | 34 => 25 MPH
20-30% after, winds 10-15 | 10-15 | 15-20 until Friday
Average totals: 1.2" | 2.5" | 3.5"
Jose is moving more northward now and this trend should continue. He is still not going to be an easy storm to forecast ...so the track will be changing through the weekend and again...residents from Mid Atlantic to New England have to keep a close eye. Looks like rain and wind from Jose could affect this area by Tuesday. Whether that is a fringe or hit...hard to say. Below....tracks of computer models.
Below - Atlantic basin showing 2 more systems...one of which is already a depression near The Azores. That one looks to be a tropical storm already....if so...will be given the name Lee. The other could be given the name Maria. Following the Basin...a close up of new tropical depression.
Below - animated maps for the weekend....followed by threat of severe weather for today and finally - latest satellite - radar. Be safe.
Jose is still east of The Bahamas...getting stronger with 80 mph winds.
Cannot be trusted. Models won't have a grab on him until over the weekend....and while The East Coast needs to watch him...New England..even more so. Below...his track by hurricane center and models...good luck.
Below - Atlantic Basin - 2 more disturbances....one could become Lee in the days to come.
Below - animated maps for the next couple....followed by severe risk for today....dark green and yellow - and finally - amounts of rain over the next 5 days. Be safe.
Jose is a minimal hurricane north of Puerto Rico...but is now moving south. He will then turn west..then north. He needs to be watched because next week he can do some strange things. Below...close up satellite of Jose....expected track...and tracks of the various models.
Below - national satellite and radar. Irma is nothing but a swirl of clouds and some showers. Below that - animated maps for the next 2 days.
This satellite of Jose shows rapid deepening as the storm stalls east of The Bahamas. The storm will do a loop and then turn north and northeast out to sea....so say most of the models. Keep an eye on him. Below - satellite and radar showing the rain shield with Irma.
Below - satellite image of the Atlantic Basin..still busy. Animated weather maps for the next 2 days followed by amounts of rainfall for the next 5 days.
Below - track of Jose. Be safe.
Above...Irma...on radar....showing a defined center near Crystal River, Fla still with winds gusting over 80 mph and heavy rain. She will weaken to a tropical storm by this evening over SW Georgia. Below...the various maps on Irma. Not much to tell since observations have been down due to electrical outages throughout the state.
Above...today's risk of severe weather in dark green and yellow. Below..animated maps for the next 2 days.
Below- map of Atlantic basin. Jose still packing 100mph winds + will spin around himself and then move north. No model knows where he will be going even though they take it northeast out into Atlantic. I have said this last week that we need to watch him....and that's what we will do.
Below...rainfall for the next 5 days. Be safe.
Even though Irma's sustained winds have come down a little...155mph..she is still a very destructive Cat 4 hurricane and will likely hit S.Florida at that intensity late Saturday nite into Sunday. Track shows eye going to west of Miami...Lauderdale..W.Palm & Boca Raton....which puts those populated cities in the worst part of the hurricane. Tornadoes will be likely as well as life threatening storm surge. Rainfall will exceed one foot in many places. The storm will pass into Georgia Monday...still causing many problems there. After that it should rain itself out over the Ohio Valley. Below...the usual maps....all dealing with Irma.
Below - Jose - 125 mph winds - Cat 3- hurricane - will likely hit Leeward Islands again. After that - it should turn out into Atlantic....but keep an eye on him...not to be trusted.
Above...rainfall forecast. Below - animated maps for weekend. Be safe.
Irma passing north of the Dominican Republic and slamming the Southern Bahamas today - tonight. Still a fierce Cat 5 hurricane. She is likely to make more than 1 landfall is we believe the Euro model. First in Southern Fla...then she moves up the coast and makes landfall between Savannah Ga...and Wilmington N.C. .....which can take a harder hit due to storm surge. After that..she should rain herself out over the Central Appalachians and bring some rain to New England Wednesday. Below..track of Irma....expected wind.
Below...satellite picture showing not 2 but 3 hurricanes at the same time. Katia will move into Mexico....and Jose ...needs to be watched....do not write him off yet. Another system off Africa could become Lee. Following that map - animation map for next 2 days.
Be safe...updates during the day.
You don't need to be a meteorologist to look at this picture and know this is Dangerous! Cat 5 Irma - 185 to 200 mph winds moved across Barbuda and now the Northern Virgin Islands then Puerto Rico. There is still some question as to what she will do when nearing Florida. Most models place the emphasis on Florida's east coast...but staying just offshore and then making landfall over So. Carolina coast. We think Thursday's models will be able to nail the track better...but meanwhile...preparations have started. Below....track of Irma....wind projections.....rainfall projections.
Not to forget - Tropical Storm Jose....in back of Irma...55 mph winds. Below..his track...but again....watch this guy....I do not buy the guidance and I think this may become a player in our weather...although not major.
Finally - today's threat of severe weather in dark green....followed by animation of maps for next two days. Be safe.
Irma is packing 145 mph winds and will wallop the No. Leeward Islands first. After that...computer guidance is increasingly convincing that she will hit Florida. Always a chance she could move a bit further south...and it is one week away....otherwise anyone reading this...residing in Florida or having friends and relatives there - especially southern half....should have an emergency plan in place now...do not wait. Below - track..and wind projections.
Below - computer model tracks. Notice how they are all pretty much in agreement even at this long range standpoint. Following that...a look at the hurricane basin...and Jose and Katie may not be far behind....but one at a time for now.
Below - current satellite and radar showing cold front moving into Northeast. This front will dump heavy rain Northeast and Mid Atlantic...and some will think it is because of Irma...IT IS NOT. mAPS FOLLOWING....Risk of severe weather today - dark green and yellow...current surface map and animation for next couple of days. We will continue to update Irma as information changes.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.