Map above for late today. Weak low brings grey/damp weather to Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Lingering showers in southeast. Rainy for No. Plains and Rockies. West coast is dry except for Pacific Northwest.
Satellite shows front along East Coast with clouds and some rain. Powerful system in Plains...will head east and reach the East Saturday followed by a touch of fall for all.
Map above shows front along east coast for Saturday a.m. Cool air floods much of The Nation. Below...high temperatures expected for Sunday. Be safe.
System near Bermuda will bring rain and wind to Bermuda..but tropical development will be slight. Hurricane Rachel off Baja...will spin around and slowly weaken. Front in East will bring some unsettled weather there.
Hurricane Rachel still looks healthy with a good outflow. Winds of 75-80 mph...but she should weaken and just meander before moving west.
Map for late today...shows front over Great Lakes...bringing some showers from there to Northeast. Old front in southeast will cause showers there. Fronts in Rockies and west will bring bands of showers....all of which will march eastward this week. No big deal. So September should go out and October should come in on a seasonable note. Be safe....later.
October starts next week and reaching 80 degrees will soon start to become a statistical improbability. This last weekend of September however will see a few areas reach over 80. A tall ridge across the Eastern US brings sunshine and warm air through the weekend from the Northeast, out to the Midwest.
On the infrared image above, the air flow through the jet stream can be seen moving down the west coast, and up north through the Rockies into the southern Canadian region and continuing eastward into the Atlantic. High pressure along the eastern part of the jet will be settling in for the next few days, resulting in the aforementioned sunny & warm weather.
In the Southeast, another wet weekend is on tap with moist, unstable air along the Gulf Coast moving east-northeast through the weekend. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible along the immediate Gulf Coast today and will shift into Georgia and the Carolinas for Sunday and Monday before drying out mid-week.
Out west, temperatures are expected to heat up a bit as a ridge moves in behind the trough currently building out in the region. In Southern California, 90's could be reached late week with areas along the San Francisco bay area reaching over 80 to start October.
Above...satellite of Rachel south of Baja. The expansion of "black" indicates intensification...so expect hurricane center to "up" her strength later this a.m. Below...expected track of Rachel...which could pose a threat to Baja again.
Map for late Saturday showing high pressure covering much of The Nation. Wet weather Rockies...Gulf coast.
Above...you can clearly see the jet stream flowing across the Northwest. The other jet is along east coast...and in between...nice and warm.
Above...satellite of the tropical Atlantic. Disturbance in the bottom right is being watched for development. Weather or not...have a nice safe weekend.
Band of rain along east coast will push offshore tonight. Much of the rest of the nation except Northwest will be fair and warmer right into the weekend.
Tropical Atlantic is quiet....but there is a couple of disturbances that bare watching but not promising.
Tropical Storm Rachel - south of Baja, Ca. moving west. Looks very healthy but should stay away from land areas.
Low pressure along Mid Atlantic will bring rain and move out tonight. Showers will continue Pacific NW....and Florida.
The above map shows how nighttime temperatures will average for the next week. Remember...these are overnite. 10 to 15 above the average.....so many of us will not have to turn the heat on. Stay safe....later.
Satellite shows conveyor belt of moisture moving from Fla., to Mid Atlantic....this rain should reach southern New England Thursday. Powerhouse storm east of Vancouver, B.C. will bring wind and wet weather to The Northwest,
Early morning Wednesday radar shows rain over Carolinas marching north. This will give the Mid Atlantic heavy rain...and they can use it.
The map above for late Thursday....shows the low along Mid Atlantic coast with rain. Unsettled in Northwest and southern Texas.....rest of The Nation...no problem.
Above...amounts of rain which will fall thru Thursday. The brown indicates 1.50"....which I think is a bit much and this could be overdone for those areas...nevertheless...first significant rain in some time for those places.
Above...high temperatures expected for next Wed., Oct. 1st. Notice how cold it is in the Rockies....a sign of things to come ? Be safe. Later.
Above....blue streak along East coast....moisture that could turn out to be heavy rain for mid Atlantic...but only a glancing blow to southern New England by Thursday. Strong storm off west coast of Canada will change the pattern and produce warmer weather for Eastern half by weekend.
Map for late today: low off Georgia could be the troublemaker for Mid Atlantic mid week. Elsewhere...not bad.
Amounts of rain Wednesday into Thursday. Notice....southern N.J. thru Delaware - 1- 2" of rain while NYC will see less than 1/4". Interesting ?
Map above shows how temperatures will average from this weekend into early next week. Map below...continues that trend thru most of next week.
Tropics are quiet on both coasts....but don't think that's it for the season. Be safe....later.
While Fall arrives around the same date each year, the weather doesn't always comply. This is the same for both the meteorological Fall (first of the month) as well as the seasonal Fall (22nd-23rd). However by sheer coincidence today weather-wise we actually are seeing a complete change in the seasonal weather as relative humidity will be dropping into the 40-50% range and temperatures dropping in similar fashion.
Again, there is a difference between a normal (astronomical) season and meteorological seasons. The normal Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter that many people know coincides with the movement of the Earth around the Sun and falls on the 21st, 22nd, or 23rd of the month depending on the year. It's different because of the extra quarter day that we experience every year, fixed by what we know as leap years and. During these normal seasons, the Summer and Winter solstices the Earth's axis faces the sun and either the northern or southern hemisphere's axis faces the Sun, and the Spring and Fall equinoxes they're perpendicular to the Sun.
While that has to do with cycles of solar body revolution, meteorological seasons deal with the cycle of annual temperature cycles, hence why they start 20-22 days earlier. However this has to do with global variations and as such may not actually coincide with regional average temperature cycles.
So which one should you follow? Personally I always go with the normal seasons as weather is always in flux and their deviations rarely coincide as well with the cyclical definitions. That and climate is changing so much that it may not be accurate any more.
The map above is a bit misleading as it will change dramatically to the east as the day goes on. Why? This:
That left-most cold front is the key in the temperature change. It will be making its way through the Northeast and the Atlantic Seaboard throughout the day. That being said, much of the center of the nation is still in the path of sunshine and will continue to see that as well throughout the week. In fact if you look across the entire US for the next 5 days and average out the chance of precip it would be a tiny 4% chance, cloud cover only reaching into the 20-30% range.
Finally a look at the current tropics. While the Atlantic has been very quiet this entire season with only 5 named storms and 4 of those hurricanes, the Pacific has been stealing the show with 17 named storms, 12 of those hurricanes and 8 of those being major hurricanes of category 3 or higher, 5 category 4 and the strongest Hurricane Marie a category 5 with 160 mph winds. In fact it's been so busy that at one point there were three hurricanes active at once, all within 2000 miles of one another.
Right now however we have Tropical Depression Polo, once a category 1 hurricane, that is moving offshore and slowly dissipating. Another storm though is currently south of Mexico and has a 60% chance of forming into a hurricane over the next 48 hours, and a 80% over the next 5 days. That one is slated to be named Hurricane Rachel once it intensifies.
The Climate Prediction Center did in fact call for a below normal season, and on average across the board there were predictions of 12 named storms, 6 of those hurricanes and 2-3 of those major. Right now we're just under halfway there for total storms and 2 away for both regular and major hurricanes.
The Pacific was of course higher for the average of predictions with 15 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes and 3 of those major. Again right now we're WELL above that average so that deserves a look at the record high activities:
In 1992 we had 28 named storms, 16 hurricanes and 10 of them major. At 17, 12 and 8 we're close to breaking that with still more time left in the season.
The Autumnal Equinox is this upcoming Monday, September 22 for the the United States (officially September 23, 02:29 GMT). Conditions will be nothing short of perfect following this weekend which could see showers on Sunday as a cold front moves through.
For today, high pressure is in control of the Northeast, though is being pushed offshore by the aforementioned trough into Sunday.
The trace of the cold front can be seen in the clouds dipping through the western Great Lakes region this morning through Chicago and into Missouri. In the Southeast lies another disturbance that is bringing the threat for rain and breezy conditions to the coastline. This weak low will move north and mesh with the trough that moves by on Sunday and continue to bring showers mainly over the ocean waters.
Following the cold front, high pressure takes full control through the week with dry weather for much of the country into next weekend as the air starts to get a bit chillier each night with October not far away at this point.
You don't have to be a meteorologist to see the powerful jet stream off the west coast. This may be the first sign that a pattern change is underway. It would result in wet stormy weather for Pacific Northwest and warmer weather east. The blue/green in Dakotas is a cold front which will pass ff the east coast Monday.
The map above reflects the upper air for late next week. It shows the jet stream along the west coast and then a ridge or high pressure over the East. So as fall comes in..things will get warmer east and cooler west.
Map above is for Late Saturday. Cold front pushing thru Great Lakes may result in some severe weather there. Watch low off Southeast coast...it could mess things up as far north as New England with low clouds...fog...drizzle.
Yellow area above indicates area threat for severe weather on Saturday.
Above...Atlantic tropics...quiet...with one disturbance off Africa. Below...a close up look at that disturbance....does not look too organized now. Have a nice weekend...be safe.
Satellite shows moisture associated with ex storm Odile over N.Mexico and Texas. Elsewhere ....lots of dry air dominates.
Tropical Storm Polo....off Mexican coast....should stay south of Baja Ca.
Map for late today shows High Pressure over the East.....nice weather. Lots of wet weather in the south.....just scattered showers in the west.
Map above shows how daytime temps will average right thru next Thursday. Again blue = cooler...red = above. Stay safe....later.
High pressure keeps much of The Nation high and dry but cool. Very wet weather for Arizona and New Mexico....due to ex hurricane Odile.
You can see by this satellite that the wettest weather is over the southwest and off the southeast. Rest of the nation....quiet.
This is a picture of Hurricane Edouard in the Atlantic....turning out into the ocean.
This picture shows water temperatures. Orange is warm...blue is cold.....notice the warm sea temps in Gulf Of Alaska.....that builds a ridge in the west....forcing cool air down from Canada over the central and eastern states.
Above map shows rainfall expected today.....amounts are in centimeters. Be safe...later.
Hurricane Edouard is a dangerous hurricane but in the Atlantic and will stay that way. He is at least a Category 3...even a 4. Will be a menace to mariners.
Tropical storm Odile moving up The Baja Coast...the strongest ever to be recorded for this area. It has 65 mph winds but a very large storm and will bring more flooding to Arizona and New Mexico.
Satellite shows jet stream from Western Canada to Northeast...keeping them fair...dry and cool. Humid and wet for much of the Southern third of our nation.
Today's map showing the cool dry air flooding much of the nation....and the moist air (green) over the south. No changes is this pattern until late weekend.
Amounts of rain expected thru this Sunday. If you are in the blue to purple...don't plan a bar b-cue.
Above...map shows how high temperatures will average thru Sept. 25th. Be safe...later.
Hurricane Edouard in Central Atlantic with 85 mph + winds
will only threaten marine interests.
Hurricane Odile - Southern Baja Ca., with 120 mph winds. Will move north and slowly weaken but will bring wet weather to the southwest.
Aside from the tropics.....a cold front over the Great Lakes will bring a few showers from The Lakes east to Northeast over the next 24 hours. Another front in Central Canada will bring a re-enforcing Canadian air mass to same places late this week.
Map valid for late today shows those 2 fronts....and not much else. Not complaining.
This map shows how daytime temperatures will average for the next week. Blue = below....red - above....purple = near normal. Be safe.
Satellite shows one cold front off east coast....next one over Midwest...which will work east with showers....reaching east Saturday and then offshore.
Map shows fronts for late Saturday. One exiting off the east...taking the clouds and showers with it. Showers for the southeast....thru the weekend.
Above - amounts of rain for Saturday into Sat. nite. Think this is overdone in Northeast. Amounts should be less than .25" there...elsewhere...mainly dry.
Tropical Storm Edouard was born last nite...should stay in Atlantic. Disturbance near Florida will wind up in Gulf...while system off Africa is many days away.
Left screen....Edouard......center - new disturbance.
Canadian Model for next Saturday...showing a potent tropical system near Cape Hateras N.C. Below...Euro Model for the same time. Interesting ? Be safe.
Map above to late today...showing cold front moving to east coast with showers and thunderstorms. Some snow continues of Rockies ( *). Very chilly from Rockies thru Plains and into the Great Lakes.
Satellite shows cold front over Ohio Valley....elsewhere lots of dry cool air ....but it will be heating up on west coast.
This map shows how daytime temperatures will average thru this Sunday.
Weak disturbance in Bahamas will give Florida heavy rains. System in Atlantic will become Edouard....but should stay in the Atlantic.
Things are popping off Africa....thee place to watch this time of year....so look for the tropics to become increasingly active. Florida ....watch out. Be Safe.
Canadian cold front resulting in large area of rain and thunderstorms in Midwest now - moving toward the east coast tomorrow. Snow for the northern Rockies...while it stays toasty in the south.
Map above to late today. Cold front moving thru Gt.Lakes...ahead of it and behind...wet. Notice the symbols in Montana....(asterisks) that's snow.
The yellow area above represents today's threat of severe weather.
Above...disturbances that are being tracked by hurricane center. One in yellow should not intensify into anything.
Above - track of African disturbance by various models. Below...satellite picture of African coast. Be safe. Later.
Satellite shows arctic cold front from Montana to Central Canada. Front will drop south and east and bring snow to Northern Rockies...while severe storms break out in Midwest today and head for Ohio Valley Wednesday. Front along east coast will tease Northeast with some rain or drizzle.
Map above for late today. Weak low along mid Atlantic coast bringing damp weather there. Cold front in Plains bringing snow to Northern Rockies and storms in Midwest and Plains.
Map above - shows risk of severe weather in yellow for today and tonight.
This map shows how daytime temperatures will average thru this weekend. Notice...15 to 20 below normal in Plains and Rockies.
Amounts of rain expected from today thru Sunday.
Above - hurricane center watching this disturbance off Africa. Below..satellite picture of it...but notice the "black" that is dry air....do atmosphere not the greatest. Be safe.
Trailing frontalong east coast could bring some pesty rain to Northeast next few...while heavier rains possible over Mid Atlantic. Spiral moisture over Bahamas should be watched. Lines of blue over Southern Canada is an arctic cold front that will plunge south and bring some snow to Rockies. Chilly air for East by weekend.
Today's weather map shows front on East coast....arctic cold front dropping out of Canada. While front on east coast will bring heavy rain to Mid Atlantic...that arctic cold front will be the big weather maker this week.
Rainfall expected Wednesday ....all associated with Arctic cold front. The strip of moisture in The Rockies could be snow.
Satellite shows you what is left of Norbert off Baja California. Lots of dry air in The Pacific (orange) destroying the storm's structure.
Map above is for Saturday coming. High pressure sprawled out over the center of The Nation....cold to chilly from Rockies to East coast.....except Florida. Be safe.
Lots of things to look at on this satellite. Down at the bottom....looks like the next tropical system heads for the Yucatan. Norbert off Baja California..spreads rain into the southwest. Cold front stretches from Great Lakes to Rockies. It will be the focus for severe weather as it moves east this weekend.
Map above is valid for late Saturday. Cold front along east coast will bring gusty thunderstorms. High pressure in center nation brings great late summer weather there.
Expected rainfall for Saturday. Heaviest - Maine....NE Florida....New Mexico.
Hurricane center only highlighting disturbance off Africa....but flare up in Central America should be monitored.
Here you can see disturbance off Africa coast as well as another one over Africa....both must be watched.
Disturbance Central America will bring heavy rains there. Below...outline for severe weather on Saturday in yellow. These potential storms could have damaging winds.
Be safe and have a nice weekend.
Lots of dry air seen on satellite. Storms in the Dakotas will head east to affect the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. Tropical storm Norbert will head up The Gulf of California and bring wet weather to southwest early next week.
Cold front over the Great Lakes pushes east and off the East Coast by Sunday. Ahead of it...hazy - sticky with storms....behind it..nice.
Above...amounts of rainfall expected Saturday. Heaviest - northern New England and in The Southwest. Tropical Atlantic is amazingly quiet....shhhhhhhhh. Be safe.
Dolly made landfall south of Tampico, Mexico and now could bring up to 15" of rain with dangerous flash flooding. A strong disturbance is moving off The African coast....place to watch at this time of year.
Satellite shows lots of dry air over the nation. (Black). A flare up is noted over The Bahamas....Midwest.
Yellow area indicates the chance of severe weather today and tonight.
Severe weather is upper Midwest being caused by low pressure over Dakotas. Elsewhere...nothing out of the norm.
Above - map shows daytime temperatures...and how they will average between Sept. 8 and 12th. Blue is cooler...orange - hotter. Chilly air is likely over the same area around mid Sept. Stay safe.
Severe storms from Midwest to Appalachians today...as you can see the colors already on satellite.
Map above - valid for late Tuesday...showing cold front nearing east coast with thunderstorms. Drier cooler air over Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Tropical Storm Dolly - in BAy of Campeche moving toward central Mexican coast and will make landfall there Wednesday. Meanwhile another disturbance will track up
the coast of Baja California threatening west Mexico.
Today's threat of severe weather from New York State to Kentucky...(yellow).
Dolly is seen here as intense complex of rain and will likely stay a tropical storm as she makes landfall Wed. a.m. along the Mexican coast. Flooding is the biggest problem. Stay safe.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.