Enjoy the sunny and warm week everyone.
The high pressure we were talking about yesterday is still dominating the region, and will continue to do so ALL WEEK. Temperatures will be well above normal and will reach into the lower 80's in the middle of the week. It's fall now right? Just checking.
And speaking of fall, September is supposed to be the busiest time for the hurricane system statistically, but we've barely gotten any. AND there's been no US landfalls, which after last year's storms I think all of us appreciate that fact. But in the last day of September the Atlantic is giving us a final push with Tropical Storm Jerry emerging in the center of the ocean.
But as you can see, all it will do is wander around in the ocean for the week and not affect anyone. The tropics aren't generating anything either with only a 10% chance of the storm near Panama becoming the next storm Lorenzo. There is however a slight wave starting to come off of Africa so maybe that will become the next one to come near the US.
Enjoy the sunny and warm week everyone.
There's a cold front to our west and a large area of low pressure with instability to the southeast, both of which are moving directly towards us. So why won't we get any precip in the metro area tomorrow?
First let's look at what those systems look like at the moment, and look at the jet stream to find how how they're moving:
You can see in the first picture another factor in play: the area of high pressure sandwiched between the two areas of precip. This is our barrier, and because of the jet stream funneling in northeasterly winds, it won't budge.
In fact, you can see above that every 6 hours, the cold front dissipates more and more due to the large influx of higher pressure air, and the low pressure is forced to stay away from land because of the westerly winds at the southern part or the high pressure system (and jet). The models have been struggling for the past few days on where the system would be moving with a 20% chance of rain for Monday in the forecast for quite some time, but now we can say for sure that we're in the clear.
Other than our part of the country, tropical depression 11 formed in the Atlantic and will most likely become TS Lorenzo but won't affect land. A quiet hurricane season is a good one. And a quiet and sunny week is what we get to look forward to.
If you have been a fan of the sun (with a few period of clouds) for the last week & today, then you will enjoy the next week ahead which is looking to be the same story.
The above visible satellite imagery from midday Saturday shows a long front going straight down the middle of the US. This will be traveling north as it approaches the Ohio River Valley and keep the coastal areas in high pressure entering Monday. The other possibility for clouds and possibly shower activity is a Low circulating off screen to the east near Bermuda. It was showing some weak signs of clipping New England but the track is continuing to become further east. Showers are still a slight possibility for New England but mainly in areas along the coastline of New England starting near Cape Cod, Massachusetts and going North.
Ahead of this though, more sun & dry air with a bit of late summer warmth midweek. Enjoy it as much as you can this week as we head into October, the first month where the talk of snow once again starts to jump into frame for the mountainous regions of the country.
High pressure still domniates The East. Low east of Florida will head
north bringing clouds to Northeast Monday...and some rain for New England coast. Unsettled weather for the Pacific NW....snow falling
in higher elevations of Wyoming & Montana.
The disturbance I pointed out yesterday in the south central Atlantic looks like it had organized into a weak circulation....but lots of sheer will make for a hard time for it to grow stronger. Other than that...not much here.
This map depicts travel conditions: white = clouds, green rain, blue=snow. Have a nice safe weekend....later.
This map is valid for Friday. While = clouds. Blue = snow...over Wyoming- above 5,000ft. Low off Florida should stay offshore.
Current satellite shows mid deck clouds over Northeast and mid Atlantic. Some rain and clouds Rockies to upper Midwest.
Atlantic satellite shows low off Florida...it may take on some tropical characteristic and move north...but enough off the coast. Area of south central Atlantic has been intensifying overnite...so we will need to watch it...but lots of sheer going on...so don't know the chances of it
turning into anything big. Enjoy the day...later.
This infra-red satellite picture shows the quiet over much of Our Nation.
Thunderstorms in Florida.....showers and even some high elevation snow in the Northern Rockies.....elsewhere fair. Notice the lighter shade of white over Nova Scotia....that is the storm that is just sitting and blocking weather systems from west to east.
Tropical satellite shows nothing to be worried about. Cluster of convection is ready to come off coast of Africa....which deserves watching...but so far all season...they have turned out little if any problem.
Get your sights right...The Great Lakes have a big circle over them.
The shaded colors represent the strongest winds at 18,000 ft....or the jet stream. The time if valid for October 10th. We find a deep trof over
the Rockies....that's the area getting rain/snow. The big circle over the Gt.Lks. represents another trof or closed low...with the jet along the
Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast....indicating..precipitation. Overall..a cool pattern over much of the U.S. Until tomorrow...enjoy, be safe.
Much of the Nation..quiet, nice. Clouds and showers in the Plains
will weaken as it moves east...and could bring a shower or two to The East Coast come Monday. The most unsettled areas...Pacific NW and
This map shows where precipitation was last night across the World.
Our Atlantic satellite also shows all is calm...as there are no disturbances to report. Amazingly quiet...almost eerie. Enjoy the weather....sooner or later it has to even out. L
Much the Nation...fair. Clouds and wet weather Rockies into The Plains...and over Florida. If you look closely...very pale white over
parts of the Northeast. That's mid deck clouds often associated with cool fall-like days.
Notice the top panel above...you can see that "v" shaped trof over the upper Midwest...and a low off Nova Scotia....this will keep the East pretty calm and dry. Big storm in Gulf of Alaska will be affecting the Pac. Nw. Below...for same time period...this Saturday nite....The Euro...
showing almost an identical pattern as The Canadian above....nice when they agree. So enjoy the weather. Later
While last night's rain for the metro area and much of the Northeast hit hard and locally caused areas of flooding in some areas, the entire event only lasted 6 hours for the NYC area and even less time as you go farther towards Boston (only 2 hours there). Below you can see the weather observations for NYC and when the rain happened. Surprisingly there was very little thunder and any lighting was cloud-to-cloud.
The cold front that swept through has lowered temperatures by around 5-7° from yesterday; not too bad but it's also 10° lower on average for the Northeast since Friday's "it's the last day of Summer so here's a hot day for you" day. I'm not sure if that's the technical term but I'll go with it.
So with the cold front passing through, high pressure will take over for the entire week. That's right, a week filled with sunshine. Not a bad way to start off the new season.
A very potent and deep low pressure system passing across the eastern US will bring rain into Sunday, the first day of Astronomical Fall (Meteorological Fall began on September 1).
You can see on the below radar as of 4:11 PM EDT, the area of the precipitation wrapped around the cold front is quite extensive. Rainfall will be consistent and heavy at times through the night into Sunday...
As rain showers wrap up on Sunday and we head into Monday, we will arrive at another prolonged period of beautiful weather, not just for the Northeast, but for much of the country as well.
The above image represents the relative humidity at 700mb (about 3000 meters above sea level) for Sunday evening. The more pumpkin looking colors (a nice Fall reference) represent air the is generally void of a sufficient moisture to produce clouds and precipitation. This overall pattern is expected to last well into next week as far as to next weekend for much of the country.
After we escape the hiccup of rainfall tonight, expect a beautiful start to the Autumn season!
You don't need to be a meteorologist to figure out where the cold front is .....how about Wisconsin to Texas. The front will sweep east and be off the coast by the time fall arrives on Sunday (4:44pm East Coast). Most of the rain with this front will fall Saturday nite for The East.
This map valid for Friday morning. Green hatched areas shows best chances of rain.
This map shows rainfall amounts. Clearing...a strip of heavy rain expected from Central NYS into Central Pa. Another area of heavy to very heavy rains from Tenn...to Louisana. Be safe and have a nice weekend....see you again in the Fall.
High pressure covers The East.....and that is good into the weekend. Low - showing up in the far left side of your screen is the next front to bring some wet weather Sunday.
The satellite picture shows this front from Minnesota to Colorado. Aside from that...not much to worry about.
The tropics are also amazingly quiet for this time of year. Will it change in a hurry ? Anyone's guess. Settle back...enjoy it. Later.
Not much to write about in The U.S. The bright spots...south of Cuba...and Coastal Mexico are tropical systems that may throw moisture northward by late weekend and next week. Models are coming together in thinking that a large wet storm could affect the Eastern half of U.S. early next week.
This is the Euro for next Tues/Wed. Storm off N.J. has tropical moisture...so it could be signifcant.
This chart shows amounts of rainfall thru this Saturday. This will be headed east Sunday and early next week.
Map on right shows the jet stream for 10 days out. You will notice the red and orange over the Lakes and Northeast...indicate warming heights....as the jet moves north....while colder jet is seen out west....
where over the next 5-8 days snow will fall in the higher elevations of
the Rockies. Later .
Aside from some isolated areas of wet weather...much of our Nation is quiet and calm and should stay that way for several days if not more.
Above...yesterday maximum temperatures. Hottest temps in the south and Northern Rockies....coolest temps across the north.
High over Great Lakes keeping the East delightful into weekend. Cold front over Rockies will head east and bring the East showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Satellite shows Tropical Storm Humberto stalled in the central Atlantic.
In time he will move north-northeast. Another disturbance in Yuchatan
could become Jerry. Aside from that...tropics are about as quiet as the
National weather picture.....so we won't rock the boat. Later.
The next Canadian air mass is centered over Minnesota and moving
east. The forward edge of this air mass...or front...can be seen stretching from Maine to Texas. This air mass should dominate the Eastern Half of the Nation...all week.
This map shows us expected temps thru Sept. 25th. Near to above the average for much of the nation except the west.
This map takes us thru Sept. 29th...and clearly shows the only below average temps out west...much of the nation enjoying above normal early Fall weather.
Hurricane Ingrid slowly approaching Mexico...and the slow movement resulting in dangerous floods. What was Humberto is in the central Atlantic likely to become Humberto again as it moves north...being a menace to shipping lanes only. Later.
Low pressure centered just to the northeast of the US has brought the broken clouds to the region today. However, high pressure behind it to the west is bringing in more stable air resulting in skies clearing into tonight and bringing a sunny & comfortable Sunday...
Temperatures in the 80's are going to be a rarity real soon with normal high temperatures dropping into the mid 70's. The upcoming week will reflect that, with temperatures generally in the low 70's.
The only precipitation in our near future will be on Monday when a weak cold front crosses over the Great Lakes moving southeast as seen in the below maps of surface pressure & 3 hour precipitation... The blue H's that represent high pressure behind Lake Superior will move right back into place on Tuesday for the remainder of the work week.
Meteorological Fall began on September 1st, but the Autumn Equinox that most of you are more familiar with will be Sunday, September 22nd. The night-time chills will soon be making their presence felt!
Have a great weekend. Take care & be well.
I just took a look at the current lightning strikes and how perfect of a curved line it forms from Idaho down through Louisiana and up again along the Atlantic coast. It makes sense when you also look at the current surface map. Here's the side-by-side of the two of them:
Also look how calm it is behind the front. The metro area, the northeast, and much of the surrounding regions will get a beautiful and sunny weekend behind this front with cooler temperatures, only reaching into the low-mid 70's for the metro area. It's a nice break from the AC weather we had this week where we reached into the mid-upper 90's if you can believe it, and for September none-the-less! On the 11th it was 96° in the heart of NYC only a few degrees shy of the record, 88° on Long Island tying the record there, and in the upper 80's or the lower 90's in much of New England which either tied or broke records in many counties.
So we'll welcome the cooler weather for this weekend with open arms. Enjoy it everyone.
Hurricane Humberto- 85 mph winds- moving northwest then will move north and should stay in Atlantic. Gabrielle...tropical storm...heading northeast away from us. Tropical Depression ten will threaten Mexico with very heavy rainfall.
You can see the cold front moving across The East....Gabrielle in the Atlantic. Colorado will continue to have more heavy rains...perhaps the worst weather in our Nation.
This map shows the heavy rainfall prediced for Colorado...Kansas and parts of Oklahoma today and tonight. Have a nice and safe weekend.
This map shows the general area for thunderstorms today in green...while the yellow is the risk of severe weather. That risk covers..Maine..New Hampshire..Vermont..Western half of Mass., eastern NYS, Eastern Pa, NW New Jersey. The risk of tornadic activity will be highest across Northern New England. All of this due to a cold front that will end the heat and humidity.
Hurricane Humberto is well developed...estimated 85 mph wind. This storm will turn west...but longer range computers see a break in the Bermuda High and turn it north again...which would lessen threat to The U.S.
This global satellite shows Humberto off Africa (far right)....a new system in Yuchatan which could become INGRID. You can also see the cold front across northern U.S.
Once again..jet stream map for this weekend. The ridge holds out west...forcing the jet stream to come down from Central Canada to the East. Don't see this changing much....so once cooler air invades east...it will stick around. Be on the lookout for storms in Northeast today...later.
Band of clouds stretches from Maine to Iowa representing next cold front. Disturbance off the Carolinas....further east...Gabrielle moving
to the west of Bermuda.
Today's map shows 3 cold fronts...all lined up to move southeast. The pattern we have seen for much of the season. So the East stays on the cool side and the warm weather west and south.
Map shows rainfall ending Friday. Blue line indicates 1.00" of rain from
Catskills-NY to Maine. Heavy rains for Colorado/ New Mexico.
This map is valid for Saturday - 9-14-13 and is at 18,000 ft. It depicts the jet stream and you can clearly see the jet dropping south to N.Carolina. This pattern will produce typical fall cloudiness and wind for Northeast.
In Central Canada you see another trof...it will head southeast and reenforce the cool air for the Northeast next week. Short sleeves for today. Later.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle regenerated and will now affect Bermuda where warnings are posted. She will then turn northeast out into The Atlantic.
Humberto is expected to become a hurricane today. Moving north then turning west. Models want to bring him toward the lower Atlantic Coast
by next weekend.....we shall see.
Satellite pix of Humberto this a.m. - healthy guy he is.
This pix shows some heavy convection headed for Northern NY and New England today....otherwise the eastern 2/3 of the country is in summerlike conditions. That will change for the Northeast by this weekend....when daytime highs stay in the 60s..and nights in 30s and 40s. Later.
Morning satellite/radar shows calm weather for much of the nation. Heavy thunderstorms from Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin today...and while they need the rain they don't need any severe weather. Elsewhere...scattered thunderstorm in southwest and over Florida and parts of Ohio Valley.
Cold front over The Plains will combine with front over Western Canada to bring any summer weather to an abrupt end by end of this week. The Great Lakes and Northeast will really feel the punch Friday into Saturday...when many places will fall into the 30s at nite.
Say Hello to Humberto....the newest tropical storm off Africa. Satellite pictures show he is well formed and could become a hurricane. Will
turn north and after that....who knows. Here is a look at what computer models are forecasting. We will be watching...since we moving into peak season. Later.
Today's cold front won't be bringing us more than a possible passing drizzle in certain locations but the gradients will be bringing winds of up to 20 mph in the metro area, up to 25 mph tonight. A look at the surface map shows there's not much happening in the way of severe gradients or even moisture with that dry line just to the east of the cold front.
The front will move through the metro area in the late afternoon meaning that highs will temporarily reach where they were yesterday before plummeting tonight (upper New England states will have the front move through earlier meaning their highs will be lower today instead). Tomorrow the metro area will have highs on average of 7-10° lower than today, but when you hear cold front you usually think showers right? Storms especially in months like September when it's hotter out, so why the isolated drizzles?
Again, the dry line will lower humidity considerably which lowers the energy in the atmosphere, and less energy with the less moisture means less instability and condensation. Also, the high pressure behind it is fairly deep at 1023 in a large area, and look where it'll be in the evening:
Higher pressure also adds, or rather takes away from the moisture in the air and further hurts the development of precipitation. The trade-off is that there will be higher winds and much lower nightly temperatures, but after the hot weather we've had for the past month (and remember the hot July) I think most of us would be just fine with cooling off and giving our air conditioners a rest.
Should be a good and sunny start to the week, enjoy it.
As the visible satellite imagery shows, much of the nation is experiencing sunshine. Sporadic thunderstorms are popping up along the gulf coast and Florida along with moisture moving north in the Rocky Mountain region. To the bottom left along Mexico & the Gulf of California, the small Tropical Depression Lorena can be spotted.
A cold front moving southeast past the Great Lakes on this Saturday will threaten southern New England and parts of the Mid-Atlantic with rain showers tonight. Beyond that, high presure returns and at times, bring temperatures reminiscent of early autumn.
Conditions are expecting to remain without trouble for the Eastern US until mid-late next week.
Take care & be well.
From the Great Lakes east and south to Carolinas...dry...cool. Humid with some storms along Gulf...very unsettled in Pacific NW...otherwise things won't change much thru weekend into early next week.
This map shows expected rainfall for the next week. Yellow..below average....brown - about average......green- above average.
This map shows tropical waves....but nothing big. Gabrielle is a disturbance...but could still intensify when moving through Atlantic. Systems off Africa just having a hard time..due to dry air and cooler water temps. So even the tropics are quiet and if there is not a hurricane in the next 5-10 days...we will set a record for such. Weather or not....have a nice weekend.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.