Erika - 50 mph winds....south of Puerto Rico ...still disorganized. She has to get through 2 more days of wind sheer otherwise she may not make it. Track moves it across Florida as tropical storm Monday. Official track and model tracks below.
Below Hurricane Ignatio with 115 mph winds - will likely move just north of the Hawaiian chain....but will affect them with squalls and rough seas.
This satellite is of the Pacific......3 tropical systems ...all moving in same direction.
Below...today's risk for severe weather in dark green....not much to worry about. Following map....for Saturday evening. Wet windy cool weather for Pacific Northwest....elsewhere summer continues. A look at the various models with Erika at the end. Be safe.
Erika is still a storm with 50 mph winds about 35 miles to Guadalupe in Leeward Islands. She is moving west. Models are all over the place with this one...some say she will dissipate...others say she will become a hurricane. Until we see what happens we can only say that Bahamas on west and north must watch. Below is the official track from hurricane center followed by the predictions by the many
Hurricane Ignatio has 75 mph winds and still poses a threat of Hawaii. Below...official hurricane track and the ensemble models.
Below...the actual models and what they are predicting....
it's a 3 ring circus.
Lastly....early satellite/radar showing storms moving out of the Rockies and in the Southeast. Below that...today's risk of severe weather in dark green...and weather map for
late today. I also included the marine info from the plane that went into Erika. Be safe.
Erica is strengthening and will likely become a hurricane by the time it gets to The Bahamas this weekend. This is a large storm. Most models, as you will see below...take Erika toward Florida posing a serious threat by Monday. There is still time to this to change, nevertheless...residents of Florida and SE Coast should begin preparing. Below..hurricane center's track followed by the tracks of many computer models.
Ignacio ...in the Pacific will also become a hurricane and he could threaten Hawaii by late weekend or early next week.
Below...hurricane center track followed by computer models.
Today's severe weather threat in dark green. Below..satellite and radar showing most of the wet weather in the southwest.
Finally...a glance at the major models and what they do with Erika. No reason to press "panic" buttons yet because many things could happen....but keeping posted and watching is recommended. Be safe.
Erika is a tropical storm now with 50 mph winds and will move across the Leeward Islands on Thursday. After that...track is a bit questionable but hurricane center brings it to Bahamas on Sunday as a hurricane. Below..satellite picture of Erika.
Below..Canadian Model brings Erika into Gulf to affect west coast of Florida....while below that...European model wants to pose a threat to the SE Coast.
Below...the track projected by many models.
Early satellite/ radar showing a front moving into Northeast
with some showers. Storms near Louisiana Coast and in Arizona. Clouds dominate Great Lakes.
Front along east coast will cause showers and thunderstorms..otherwise typical August weather elsewhere. Below...dark green indicates chance of some severe weather...mainly across New England. Be safe.
A front will swing into the east today....some showers and storms with that. Showers and storms in southeast and southwest. Cool dry weather continues in Plains.
This disturbance in Atlantic could become a tropical storm and would be given the name Erika. Meanwhile Danny...below...will become a tropical depression as it moves across the Leeward Islands.
Rainfall amounts of the next 7 days....winner is Florida.
Below...how daytime temperatures will average for the next week......plenty of summer left. Be safe.
Circulation around Bermuda in Atlantic could take on tropical characteristics and perhaps become Erika this weekend. It could throw in some moisture across New England.
Hurricane Danny has an eye...small hurricane with 85 mph winds. He is expected to weaken as he moves toward Puerto Rico next week. Track is below.
Below...Typhoon Atsani - staying offshore but a big one....Typhoon Goni....weakened somewhat but will impact China.
Map above is for Saturday evening. Stalled front along east coast could result in some showers and thunderstorms there. New cold front upper Midwest could cause severe weather over the weekend there. Below....severe threat for storms today in dark green.
Lastly - morning satellite radar - showing heavy rain in the Northeast with flash flooding there. Be safe...have a nice weekend.
Tropical Storm Danny - south central Atlantic...has good form but a lack of deep convection in the center. Storm has 50 mph winds and moving west. Below...track from Hurricane Center...toward Puerto Rico by early next week and below that...models showing their take into next week.
Typhoon Atsani - 155 mph winds - should stay just east of China and Japan - track below.
Typhoon Goni - 130 mph winds - will affect China and Japan....it's track just below.
Map for this evening showing cold front over the Appalachians with showers and storms ahead of it. Dry for most of the rest of the Nation. Below...severe risk for thunderstorms today in dark green.
This is a projection of the upper air for the start of September. If this turns out right...unseasonably warm for the Eastern Half of the Nation...cool western half. Below...early satellite and radar showing cold front with storms. Be safe.
Typhoon Atsani will likely stay east of China and Japan...but needs to be watched with winds approaching 200 mph. Track of Atsani below.
Typhoon Goni is headed for the mainland. Track below.
Danny is a tropical storm with 50 mph winds in the south central Atlantic. He is expected to become a cat. 2 hurricane as he approaches the Leeward Islands. Below is the official track from the Hurricane Center and below that is the tracks of the many computer models. The solid white line is the mean or average track.
Satellite/radar shows an unusual storm in Upper Midwest with rain..wind...cool temps. Storms ahead of that system will continue east - slowly toward the East Coast by end of week. Threat of severe weather outlined below in dark green and yellow. Be safe.
Satellite/radar shows clusters of rain - Appalachians...Great Lakes & Midwest....Northern Plains and Southwest. Unusual storm in Dakotas for this time of year.
Storm in Minnesota will bring heavy rain - windy and unseasonably cool weather to upper midwest. Meanwhile hazy - hot and humid weather much of the east.
Severe risk of thunderstorms today in dark green and yellow.
This could be the next tropical depression - now off Africa.
Below...Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of developing and then a snapshot of it's expected path.
Below...amounts of rainfall over the next 7 days. Heavy rain in east likely late this week into weekend....heavy rain in upper Midwest ...now and again this weekend.
Typhoon Atsani - 120 mph winds headed for China.
Below Typhoon Goni - 135 mph winds heads toward Japan.
A tropical wave off Africa is showing signs of organization and could become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours or so as it moves westward. Below...the info from the Hurricane Center on this system.
Below...2 typhoons headed for China and Japan....as well as their expected tracks.
Today's severe threat is dark green and yellow. Below..weather map for late today.
Cold front over Great Lakes and Plains will create showers and storms. Front will weaken as it approaches East Coast late in the week. Until then...Hot - humid east and south...but cool Northern Plains. Be safe.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 August 2015 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016.
This latest advisory issued by The Climatic Center is alarming as such a prediction could impact weather across the U.S. for along time should it prove accurate.
Satellite/radar shows some storms from Great Lakes to Colorado......Florida...Inter-mountains out west. This pattern will change little and more than little only persist through much of next week. Below...map valid for Saturday night...which pretty much speaks for the entire weekend.
Areas of greatest rainfall...upper Midwest and Southeast.
Below....risk of severe thunderstorms today in dark green and yellow.
Below...map showing how temperatures will average through August 27th ! Be safe and have a nice weekend.
Satellite/radar shows a few areas of stormy weather otherwise not bad for this time of year. Storms from Minnesota to Great Lakes and in Dakotas. Below....dark green shows marginal chance of severe weather today.
Map today shows cold front in the upper Midwest with thunderstorms there. Old front along Gulf Coast will cause storms there and across The Rockies. Below......7 day total rainfall expected.
Below....a map showing how daytime temperatures will average (compared to average) over the next 7 days.
Red = warmer Blue = cooler. Be safe.
Satellite/radar overlay shows a front moving off the east coast but stalling along the Gulf Coast with storms. Monsoonal moisture continues in the southwest,
Today's severe weather threat is only marginal...dark green for Northern Minnesota.
High pressure rules the nation. Some storms Gulf Coast and Rockies.
This is the upper air at 18,000 ft. The "U" shaped configuration in the east is a trof...it is bringing dry- warm weather there. A ridge is noted over Texas and Rockies...bringing very warm to hot weather there.
This map shows the track of surface lows by computer models ...referred to as "the ensembles". Most models produce these ensembles which all go into the mix of forecasting and sometimes can add to confusion.
Be safe...and try to catch the meteor showers tonight. Check the internet for local details.
Satellite/ radar shows a cold front in the east with showers and storms today...producing locally heavy rains. Showers and storms in the southwest and some over the Pacific Northwest otherwise quiet days ahead. Below...today's risk of severe in dark green....marginal...at that.
Below....today's National Map showing the cold front in the East.....and quiet weather elsewhere. Below that....amounts of rainfall expected through tonight....heaviest in Northeast.
Below....how temperatures will average during the daytime over the next 7 days. Red = above .....blue = below. Be safe.
Typhoon Soudelor with 115 mph winds will hit Taiwan today then on to mainland China. Below...projected track.
Hilda....newly formed in the Pacific will become a hurricane and move toward Hawaii. Track below.
Wider view of Hilda.....with at least 2 other disturbances nearby that could form into storms/ hurricanes.
Weather map for late today above. Below...threat of severe weather in dark green and yellow...all with frontal systems.
Finally...what's left of Guillermo. You can see the faint circulation moving north of the Hawaiian Islands. Be safe and enjoy your weekend.
Typhoon Soudelor took a track just north of Guam and is now headed for China. Still has winds up to 180 mph but will likely decrease some to 115 mph when approaching .
Below is the expected track.
Below....satellite showing the next low...headed for the Mid Atlantic....taking on an unseasonably southern track for this time of year.
Today's severe risk in dark green and yellow.
Above...once was Guillermo. Notice the light clouds with circulation north of The ISlands....moving west.....while the colored clouds a moving northeast away from center. This is because of strong wind sheer....responsible for causing storm to weaken.
This is the Euro model for next Wednesday. It has been pushing a big storm for East all week for next week. It also produce a big storm for New England this weekend...and that will not happen. Below....the models that come close to Euro for next week...but not nearly as intense.
Typhoon Soudelor as seen from Satellite yesterday. Extremely dangerous storm heading toward China with winds over 150 mph.
Another look at the typhoon in motion.
This is a look at Guilleramo.....now a tropical storm. You can see Hawaii to the left. It will pass to the north bringing gusty winds and some rain to the chain.
Map for early this evening shows stalled front over Tenn.Valley with rain which should move into Mid Atlantic for late week. Nice weather should hold over Northeast.
Elsewhere little if any change.
Today's risk of severe weather in dark green and yellow.
Typhoon Soudelor - 180 to 220 mph winds heads for China by late this week.
It is the strongest storm so far for 2015.
Guillermo is weakening but will still affect Hawaii with locally heavy rains.
Above track is Guillermo .....below...track of Soudelor
Satellite shows front in east with showers and storms.
System moving out of Rockies could bring more rain to the East by week's end. Models disagree on path of that system...but target seems to be Mid Atlantic and Southern New England. Below....rainfall expected from Friday into weekend....followed by models for this Friday. Take your pick and be safe.
Many things to look at on this satellite...first...cold front in Great Lakes...may cause some severe weather in Northeast today. 2nd - lower left on screen...Hurricane Giullermo - more on that below.
Today's severe weather risk in dark green and yellow.
Guillermo is a cat. 1 hurricane with winds of 80-85 mph. He will head across the Hawaiian chain on Wednesday probably as a tropical storm with flooding to be the worst problem.
Today's map shows a cold front headed for the east coast with thunderstorms. That front stalls in the Southeast and then waves of low pressure fly down the front almost like a winter clipper type pattern. Feel models are too far south with the track...and late week in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic will be cool and wet. Below...you will see the models forecast for late week. The Canadian and the Euro Models are more on track in my opinion with rain and cool for Northeast...we shall see.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.