Map for Saturday evening. Weak cold front along east coast....otherwise showers and storms in the south....elsewhere quiet.
Today's severe risk in dark green...again chances are marginal.
Guillermo....in Pacific ...just about a hurricane and moving westward. This storm is headed toward Hawaii...but should weaken before getting close.
Upper air pattern expected by end of next week....indicating a cool down for the East....more heat Rockies. Below...projected high temperatures for next Friday. Be safe.
Satellite-radar showing a front moving toward east coast with some thunderstorms today and tonight. Thunderstorms will hit the Gulf Coast and the monsoons continue in the southwest. Below...today's risk of severe weather....dark green which is marginal.
Map above is for this evening....showing cold front with storms along the east coast. Most of the rest of the nation...high and dry.
Above...hurricane center watching 2 areas in the Atlantic basin.....one off Africa ....other off Florida for possible tropical development. Below...close up of the system off
Africa. Stay cool and be safe.
Satellite/radar shows a strong storm in Winnipeq Canada...which continues to bring gusty winds to the Northern Border states.. Cold front with that storm causing thunderstorms in Midwest down to Texas.
Today's severe risk in dark green and only marginal at that.
Today's map shows cold front moving thru Midwest in into Ohio Valley with storms. Heat and humidity for the East.
Notice the swirl near Puerto Rico. This is an upper low with not much rain or convection around it but certainly a defined circulation. It's in a dry atmosphere but we will continue to watch it for any signs of development. Be safe.
Heavy to severe thunderstorms from Dakotas moving into upper Midwest. Some storms across Nothern New England....but all of this will pop even more so this afternoon.
Today's severe risk...dark green and yellow.
Best chance for storms today Upper Midwest with cold front. Elsewhere....random summertime storms.
Rainfall amounts expected over the next 7 days....again...heaviest from Carolinas to Florida. Below...how daytime temperatures will average for next 7 days.
An old front continues to produce thunderstorms in southeast ....and could be the focus of something tropical next week. Heavy Storms in Minnesota should weaken as they cross the Great Lakes and into the Northeast this weekend. Below...today's risk of severe weather...dark green and yellow.
Above...map shows temperatures for mid part of next week.Could be another July heatwave before month goes out.
This map shows rainfall for the next 7 days. Florida takes the brunt with as much as 8" !
This is the Euro Models - 10 days out - next weekend. The model continues to show a tropical system along the coast and moving up the coast bringing rain and wind all the way up to New England. It's a long-long- shot...but the Euro has a tendency to get these things right well in advance and then it backs off when getting closer. I think this time the model is going to be on to something. Be safe.
Weather map for today shows a stalled front over the south with showers and storms continuing there. Dry weather from Great Lakes to Northeast. Showers and storms in Plains.....no change out west.
Today's severe risk....dark green and yellow.
Chart above shows the best chance for severe weather...and as the colors get lighter the chances are greater.
Satellite/radar overlay shows the areas of moisture which correspond very well with areas for storms today.
No change in this pattern into the early weekend. Be safe.
Front stretching from So. Plains to Mid Atlantic will be focus for more storms today. North of the front...less humid and cooler....south of the front....oppressive.
Today's severe risk in dark green.....marginal.
Rainfall predictions for the next 7 days.....clearly Florida will be most likely.
Map above shows upper air over Atlantic. High pressure ridge over Africa...so tropical systems there will be hard to come by.
Map shows Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Very warm off the Carolinas and this could be a favorite spot for tropical formation especially next week......keep watching.
This is a prediction of how daytime temperatures will average through August 4. Most of the nation at or above normal.
This is the heat - index chart. Download/ print and keep it for handy reference. Be safe.
Satellite/radar shows a front moving into east and behind it...dry cooler air from Plains to Great Lakes. Elsewhere...no changes.
Today's risk of severe weather is just marginal is dark green areas.
Above...areas that may see some showers or thunderstorms today. Yellow and orange indicate best areas.
This shows the best areas for thunderstorms.
Satellite picture with lightning detection overlayed.
Upper air pattern for weekend showing a trof out west and in the East with a ridge in center nation. Under that ridge..the hottest weather expected...while under the trofs...cooler. Be safe.
With temps reaching into the 90's for NYC and most of Long Island, eastern CT, lower NY state, and NJ, much of the tri-state will be under a heat advisory Sunday from 11AM until 6PM, with many of those spots until 6PM Monday (in orange on the map above). However if you're in the grey areas, please be careful as well as it's only 1-2° that would trigger the advisory for you as well, so treat today as if there were an advisory, not just for today but for tomorrow as well.
Today's dew points will be incredibly high, around the lower 70's making it incredibly humid. While tomorrow's dew points will be down to the low-mid 60's the heat will still be formidable so take care if you will be in the sun or outside for long periods of time.
Best chance for showers in the Northeast today will be Maine and highest elevations. Storms in Central Plains could become severe. Southern California gets much needed rain.
Severe risk today = dark green and yellow. Below...current dew point map....(humidity). You can see how it relates to severe weather threat.
Stalled front from Plains to Northeast could cause some showers today into tonight. Dry air mass over Dakotas will press south and east and make it to east coast by late week.
Current watches and warnings.
This map shows how temperatures will average over the next 7 days. Blue = below the average.....Re = above.
Stay safe - safe cool and remember to check on the elderly.
Hurricane Dolores weakens with 100 mph winds off Baja. The eye has become less pronounced and this weakening should continue.
Showers and storms in Great Lakes will affect The Northeast Saturday. System in Montana will make it to the East Coast on Monday.
Severe weather threat today and tonight.....dark green and yellow.
Complex frontal systems from New England to Great Lakes will result in showers and storms over the Northern Third of Nation this weekend.
Rainfall expected over next 7 days. Light blue and purple indicate the heaviest amounts....hopefully none of these spots included on your vacation.
Map above shows how temperatures are expected to average right through the end of July. Most of the nation- warmer than normal with exception of Northwest. Be safe.
Less humid sinks into The Northeast. Showers and storms from The Dakotas into the upper Midwest .
Today's severe risk in dark green and yellow.
Today's map showers warm front in mid section of nation to be the cause of storms. Nice weather Northeast. Hot and humid for south.
Hurricane Dolores with 115 mph winds is south of Baja moving northwest. Below....tropical storm Enrique with 40 mph winds moving over the open Pacific and weakening.
Atlantic is quiet for now. Be safe.
The radar is looking pretty strange, and not just from the image above with how but more of how the storm is moving as it crosses through New Jersey and across the Atlantic towards Long Island. It's rotating in place with all the cross winds, and is doing the rare thing of moving one way while drifting another, sometimes in contradictory fashion.
I seem to have the image of a cartoon character walking one way while his upper body moves in the other direction.
In addition, a large cell just popped up 5 miles south of Islip 20 minutes ago, and while it's growing in size it's remaining in place. There's a good chance of precip from it hitting the mainland, but it's also not moving with the bulk of the main storm. Figures.
The main batch of precip has two areas of movement: the main in Brooklyn is slowly sweeping east, the second is swinging up north towards Islip, but is also rotating CCW as it moves north up the Atlantic, and the cross winds are stretching it out and leaving the heaviest showers/storms offshore and possibly east as it drifts towards Suffolk.
The upper level winds from the jet seem to be trying their hardest to move the system east, but turbulent eddies dropping down from it to the surface are causing it to stall.
The rotation is seeming to edge out the drifting though and the south edge of Nassau/Suffolk (barring what's happening with that small cell 5 miles south) 2PM seems to be time the main precip swings over for the South short, more towards the north. Will keep an eye out on the storm in the short-term, in fact in writing this another tick on the timeline just occurred on the radar moving the north part of the system half a mile more south.
Sometimes I don't know if the weather even knows what it wants to do.
Satellite/radar shows cold front moving into Northeast but stalling over Midwest. Another front moving out of Rockies and into the Plains.
Front is draped from Northeast to Southern Plains....and along it...showers and thunderstorms. This pattern not expected to change as next front in Dakotas does the same thing....which means our weather will appear to be the same no matter where you are.
Today's threat of severe weather is only marginal...and in dark green.
Satellite/radar shows cold front swinging through Gt.Lakes and Plains with showers and storms. Front will be over Northeast Wednesday/Thursday. Very cool air over No.Rockies and No. Plains.
Today's severe weather threat....only marginal...in dark green areas.
Early morning temperatures.....very cool Northern Plains for early July
Map for this evening showing one cold front across Ohio Valley with showers and thunderstorms along it. Second cold front over Northern Rockies will slowly move southeast through the week.
Rainfall amounts expected over the next 7 days. Notice that again the heaviest rain stretches from Texas to Ohio Valley...where it has been all season long. Be safe.
Satellite/radar shows humid air working north from Mid Atlantic into Northeast. Cold front in upper Midwest will move east and haunt the Northeast much of the week.
Today's severe threat in dark green and yellow.
Warm front in Northeast brings more humid air up the coast. Cold front in Miwest instiagtes showers and storms from Plains to east coast right thru mid week. Not as hot out west but still dry.
Next 7 days - how daytime temperatures will average.
Purple...near normal.....blue - below....red above. Not bad for early July. Be safe.
Satellite-radar shows storms moving down the Mississippi Valley to Carolinas. Showers continue in the Southwest.
Severe risk today fits in with current radar....dark green and yellow...best chances.
Above....dark green is the risk for possible rough storms on July 4th.
Map above is for Saturday....4th. If you are close to any of those fronts...you stand the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall predictions for Saturday.
GFS Model depicting areas of rain for Saturday.....(pink).
Have a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend.
Satellite - radar map shows wet weather in Midwest moving southeast and then it turns northward along the East Coast. If this pattern does not shift east.....showers could dampen the 4th in those places. Meanwhile..showersmoving opposite direction in west....not likely to change there.
Map for Wed. evening. Cold front moving by in the east.
Stalled front - mid section. How much this changes will tell us where it will be dry this holiday weekend.
Map projection for this Saturday.....notice.....not much change from map above which is for tonight.
Today's severe threat in dark green and yellow.
Projected high temperatures for Saturday.
Below...the various models and their take for this Saturday.
Take your pick .
Lastly....the Japan Model for Saturday....seems most promising for Northeast. Be safe.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.