Saturday...especially Appalachians before cooler air moves in.
Not a hot weather fan, happy to see July go. Many cities will wind up being in the top 5 for the hottest July ever. The overall pattern will be changing...but until late weekend and next week. A look at the Euro Model for next 10 days indicate below normal for NE.....well above for Western Canada.
Satellite/rqadar combo map from this a.m. shows one system heading across Ohio Valley.....another cool front diving down thru Norther Rockies. Ohio Valley system brings unsettled weather to the East Thursday / Thursday nite. System in Rockies may bring a shower
Saturday...especially Appalachians before cooler air moves in.
This is what's left to Dorian.....a mass of clouds and squalls in the Eastern Bahamas. Elsewhere across the Atlantic...all quiet. Later.
Before we go over to National Weather, a look at the remains of Dorian this a.m. on our enhanced satellite picture. There was an explosion of convection overnite...but now it seems to have calmed down. Nevertheless...this is still an area to watch...although upper air winds are not favorable to result in any significant tropical development.
A look at the 500 Mb (18,000ft) pattern for this coming Monday...shows an unusual closed low over Hudson Bay. The will keep the northern third of our country below normal....with summer heat staying suppressed south. Not looking for any heatwave across the North any time soon....(thank God).
Finally...a look at the US Satellite ...clearly shows the big weather news...middle of the NAtion. Heavy rain and thunderstorms in South Central Sections.....moving east and south. Elsewhere...could not be any nicer for the close of a hot sticky month.
After some extreme summer weather nation-wide, it has chilled out. The upper air shows a rather strong trof and jet stream for the Eastern Half of the nation this week...only for a re-enforcement in central Canada to join up by this coming weekend. Looks seasonable then a turn to slightly below normal this weekend especially in NE.
Our satellite/weather map shows many fronts...with precip scattered all over the place. Rather active for this time of year.
Dorian is a tropical wave north of Puerto Rico. Even though satellite pictures do not reveal any great intensification....there is a defined circulation and Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of being re-born. Will watch it. For now...settle back and enjoy the calm weather.Later.
Today's easily the best day of this week so far, with no rain in sight and humidity taking a back seat (dew points will be in the lower 60's, rising only into the mid-upper 60's tonight). As far as Dorian goes, it's really struggling to stay together, as you can see in the forecasting for the storm below.
But as for the Metro area, it'll be a bit of a roller coaster ride in the upcoming days. We'll have the sunshine today, showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday, turning into sunshine again Monday, with another chance of showers towards the end of the week. There will be some instability off the southern coast of Long Island, but the main culprit will be from a mass of showers/storms to the west of us, currently stretching from the Great Lakes down into the south. Here's what that batch of weather currently looks like:
That will mainly hit us Sunday into Sunday night, though we could see some leading/trailing storms tonight/Monday morning respectively.
For now though, enjoy the sunshine!
A very noisy pattern thru next week and beyond. Not too typical of this time of year....but that has become the norm. Trying to nail down when it will rain and how hard will be nothing more than a guessing game.Canadian models wants to bring heavy rain to Northeast this Sunday....it was right with this week....we'll see about SUnday. Meanwhile below map is a temperature change map....most of the country turning cooler. Following that...current satellite picture.
Tropical Storm Dorian undergoing sheer...so weakening. Some models forecast him to fall apart. Hrcn Cntr bring him to the SW Bahamas by Wednesday. Jury is out on this one....we'll just watch and see. Have a nice - safe weekend.
A look at this a.m. temps and if you are in the Gt.Lks or Northern New England you would think it's Sept. See how quickly things can change. Some showers will graze coast from Mid At. to New England...but any significant rainfall will be confined to The Cape - to Maine.
Tropical Storm Dorian intensified overnite. Hurricane center brought wind to 60 mph. Satellite pix does not show a burst of convection but structure already lends itself to minimal hurricane. You will see most of the models are in good agreement until he reaches Puerto Rico. I have included the GFS upper air 500 Mb map for early next week. That model wants to bring in another trof and scoop Dorian off the coast and out to sea. Possible. It may also slow up...and if short wave misses it...then interests along the mid Atlantic & NE would have to watch. Just cannot tell...and timing will always be an issue with tropical systems if not all weather systems. Original thinking is that Atlantic ridge holds and forces Dorian toward the SE Coast. Not out of the question yet. Question? If it can drop into the 40s in July....what can it do in August ?
Unseasonably cool air over The No. Plains....eastward to So. Quebec.
Cold front moves offshore today....models want to stall it and bring back showers late week for Mid At. & Northeast. Not ready to buy that. Showers will graze N.England coast....elsewhere clouds will be present...but tend to think more dry than wet. Here's this a.m. temps.
Our satellite shows dry for much of the Nation...except deep south.
Looks like Dorian may be born before the day is out. The 4th tropical depression is off Cape Verde Africa....35 mph and moving west. As I pointed out yesterday...system has no way to go but west and will head for the SE U.S. next week. Below...Satellite pix...track.
A look at the 500 Mb flow for next Friday....indicating more cooler weather for the North. Later.
Looking at the radar/satellite pix this a.m. you can see a couple of areas of clouds and rain from the Gt.Lks to The Northeast. These are the fronts that will bring some real nice weather mid week to Ne & Mid Atlantic.
Weather map shows low pressure in The NE....and once that clears...that High moving into Plains will build east. The following map is the Canadian Model. It's upper air pattern indicates a cooler one for The Eastern Half of the Nation next week......so heatwaves are not seen there.
Over to the tropics....an impressive wave is swirling off The African coast and the hurricane center gives it a 40% chance of becoming a tropical system. Given the present pattern....it would have to move across the So. Atlantic and head for the Southeast. Should it grow to a tropical storm...it would be named Dorian. Later.
For now...more humidity than heat for the Nation. Wet conditions will fall over the Eastern third of the Nation into Wednesday. Many places will get over 1" of much needed rain following the long heatwave. Here is a look at this a.m.'s weather radar....the precip in the Ohio Valley will expand as it moves east.
Here is how we think the above will translate on the ground to fallen raindrops within the next 24 hours.
The map below is a depiction of what radar could look like late Tuesday.
Over to the tropics.....quiet now. First satellite view of the Atlantic shows not much to worry about.......look at right end of picture.....that's coming off Africa. Our second picture shows you a better view off The African coast....indicating the ITCZ getting a bit more active. Over this past weekend...one of our models was picking up on this and trying to bring a tropical system up the East Coast in early August....but since has backed off.
Below...The UK Met Model showing the pattern for this coming weekend...which would indicate alot cooler for the East....but that could come at a price...of at least 1/2 weekend on wet side. More on that later this week. Later.
That's right, with the cold front finally snapping the heat wave, we'll finally be back in the 80's for this week. AND, the dew points will drop to the mid 60's for today bringing much needed relief from the humidity. Though the dew points will climb once again tomorrow and will be back into the lower 70's come Tuesday, it will be much more manageable with the lower temperatures.
Sent to us by Wayne Norman of WILI, created by NOAA here's the list of 90° days for July for the main areas in New England:
Next Tuesday has a chance of getting back to reaching 90° again (for New England at least),which will make it very close to the top. But this is New England, what about the NY metro area? I got to looking and found these stats for New York City (also taken from NOAA's records)
As of 7/20/2013 we've had ten 90° degree days (one was as 89°, so close), the longest run from Sunday 7/14 to Saturday 7/20 with the highest temperature at 98° on the 18th. We could have another 5 days of 90° heat for the last 5 days in the month, so we'll keep our eye on the mercury starting next Saturday.
I'll leave you with a nice graph from Accuweather's site in regards to this month so far. Enjoy today's cooler weather everyone!
Air temperatures have been quite unbearable to say the least for a substantial amount of time... In fact counting today, the high temperatures at LaGuardia Airport, Newark Airport, Bridgeport Airport, Islip MacArthur Airport, & Central Park have reached 90+ for 7 DAYS IN A ROW!
There is a slight bit of relief ahead as a Cold Front is slowly making its way through the Northeast on this Saturday and will then stall south of Long Island for a brief period.
Normal high temperatures in the New York area for this time of the season are near 84 F. As this cold front passes, temperatures for Sunday and into the next week will become closer to that seasonal mark. Plenty of fluids should still be consumed regardless to help prevent heat exhaustion if outdoors.
In addition to the front stalling towards our south, US will be stuck in the same general flow all the way until Friday...
Shortwaves will continuously flow along the stalled front to the region's south, resulting the chance for scattered showers to pop up throughout the week.
Take care & be well.
100 in places like JFK....Lakehurst, N.J......Newark, N.J. and where it did not reach 100......98 was a common reading yesterday. Another rough day today...not only temperature -wise....but humidity-wise. Humidity levels will be higher today....so discomfort outside will be greater and again...extreme CAUTION is advised if working out of doors. Here is the weather map for this a.m.
Our satellite picture clearly shows the cold front moving into the Great Lakes....so from The Northern Plains to The Northeast a break is seen.
A quick look at the tropics....you can see things are quiet from The African coast westward across The Atlantic......thank God !
Looking down the road to next week...The Canadian Model for next Wednesday shows a trof moving thru the mid section of the nation and while that will cause wet weather for the eastern half of the nation....it will also prevent another heatwave....so your choice is: wet and humid....or dry and hot. Why can't we have sunny and nice...because at this time of year it seldom happens. The map following that is that upper air map for early August projected by The Canadian Model. It clearly shows cooler weather for the East. My long range forecast indicates that August will not be as hot as July...so something to think about.
Finally...a look at sea surface temperatures. (In Celsius). Very warm...but not record breaking. Keep cool....have a nice and safe weekend. Later.
Temps will head for 100 in parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today and Friday. The heat combined with higher humidity will make it the worst of this heat wave. A local thunderstorm is possible otherwise we wait until the weekend when a cold front will result in a large area of severe weather. The map below shows the area expected to be under the gun this Saturday.
Tropics are quiet....a look at the satellite shows little if anything to be concerned about.
A look at today's weather map shows the area under the gun in the Upper Midwest.....that's the area The Northeast is to be concerned with this weekend. The following map is a map showing weather highlights over the next week or so.
Lastly....a look at sea surface temps in The Atlantic. You can see the
gulf stream along the Southern New England Coast. Overall...warmer
than average. Keep cool. Later.
Most of the Nation - hot and on the dry side as you will see in the satellite picture below. The long range group from the NWS indicates that temps will be returning to more of a normal pattern for late July....but it could get wetter.
Over the weekend...chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase along The East Coast....and the below map shows amounts that are possible. This is a general forecast....because within this region there may be some very heavy to severe storms that could drop 3x the amount that is now in this forecast.The tropics are quiet and will likely remain that way for the rest of this month. So...go slow in this heat. If you work outdoors you must take small breaks in thew shade from time to time....drink plenty of water. If you can check on the elderly from time to time...that would be a good idea as well. Later.
Unfortunately, the weekday highs will be around the same as today with highs on average 10° above the normals, with quite a few places matching or even beating the record highs for today. We'll have to wait until the weekend for temperatures to drop down into the 80's, but before that take a look at today's high temperatures across the nation:
Most of the country is feeling the heat. The normal southwest near the Arizona/Nevada/California border is over 100° for today but even locally in southwest Idaho reached those temperatures as well. Gladly we won't get that high, but the heat index for the Northeast did in fact go near or 100° in many areas, and will be similar over the next few days. Remember that the heat index is what the body feels when it's outside with the actual temperature combined with the humidity. A quick little rundown of the temps/dew points and heat index for the hot days ahead:
NYC Metro Area
Temp / Dew / RH% / Heat Index
Today: 96°/ 66° / 40% / 100°
Wed: 93° / 67° / 45% / 97°
Thu: 92° / 72° / 55% / 99°
Fri: 93° / 72° / 55% / 100°
So stay cool everyone. Pat returns to the weather center tomorrow.
High pressure means sunny weather, and the lack of clouds combined with arid air means that we'll be wanting to stay inside today. Please be advised that a heat advisory is in effect for much of the northeast and along eastern seaboard today, extending into Wednesday for certain areas, including the metro area where highs will be nearing 100° with heat index values well over that. The surface map below shows why we're having such a large amount of sunshine and heat.
You'll also notice those dry lines (one along the eastern NY state border and the other curling around the northeast's coastline) which are keeping passing showers at bay for now. There's still a slight chance that a stray shower or thunderstorm may pass through for today, but chances are we'll remain dry.
So stay inside if you can, and if you're stuck outside make sure you have plenty of water on you, and try and take a break to go into shade once in a while to regain your strength. Temperatures will drop more towards the end of the week (when the chance of showers and possible thunderstorms arrive), so try to just survive this hot summer weather for now.
The threat for rainfall was small to begin with for the Northeast and radar signatures been showing blanks across the area. High Pressure centered just south of Long Island is moving closer to land and clouds will continue to decrease into Monday.
Clouds will be quite scarce moving forward but the temperatures and humidity will remain at rather uncomfortable levels. Heat Indices will reach 100+ in most areas but with a trough passing well north of the NY area on Monday, there is still the chance for an isolated shower to provide a quick cooldown
As High Pressure continues to slowly move west to try and bring us consistent sunshine, small areas of moisture are still being circulated into the Mid-Atlantic as seen during the day today in the New York metro area. Unfortunately, the small threat for isolated thunderstorms will remain for the remainder of the weekend. But, some quick showers may be welcome as we enter the early stages of this next week with temperatures soaring back up towards 90 and above!
The 570 line hugs the US-Canada border and extends even further north well into next week. Heat Advisories are likely to be issued in many areas of the country. Make sure you remain hydrated when outdoors.
Take care & be well!
You can finally breathe a sigh of relief instead of breathing in the damp air. With the cold front passed over us, normal temperatures will drop by 5-7° and more importantly the dew points will also drop the same. 72° vs 66° is a huge difference when it comes to being comfortable outside, and while you can still perceive some of the humidity, it won't be leaving you wishing you were inside instead. As for the showers, just take a look at the current surface map/radar:
The cold front is now to our south, and that area of low pressure on the front itself is part of the culprit for the smaller chance of rain today in the northeast. That high pressure system in the Atlantic that I mentioned yesterday is pushing back a bit, and the low pressure center isn't able to push out farther or fast enough, meaning that the Delmarva area into Washington DC and eastern Virginia will have heavy showers and possible thunderstorms all day with areas seeing 1-1.5" of rain. If you look at the radar loop, the rain is absolutely trying to reach the metro area. The problem is that the winds around the warmer side of the front are pushing them offshore, and more importantly the winds on the cold side of the front pushing towards the low pressure are constantly drawing in the higher pressure behind it, killing much of the convection and thus the rain.
There's still a slight chance of a shower passing through, but the majority won't reach us until the later afternoon, into the evening around CT and possibly missing areas above central and western MA completely.
Finally that sunny and dry weather in reach? It'll be turning sunny tomorrow, with sunny dry milder and still less humid weather slated to hit us Sunday into mid next week. I'm sure we're all looking forward to that.
After almost 24 hours of scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in different directions at different times at different speeds, popping up and fading out, it looks like we finally have a good break in the weather for now. We'll still have the slight chance of a few stray showers passing through, but nothing past trace precipitation until tomorrow afternoon, which is when we'll get a chance of a few passing showers and thunderstorms.
Now you may be asking, why did today's increasing chance in showers and thunderstorms suddenly drop to a mere 20% instead? Take a look at the surface observations below. The left (11am EST) is superimposed with the radar, and the right (1PM EST) is superimposed with the surface observations.
Two things to note here. The first is on the right image. The red arrow is pointing to the surface observations. The biggest thing to pay attention to is the direction and speed of the winds, which are coming in from the SW (winds point towards the center circle), and the long+short barbs at the end mean that winds are moving at 15 knots. Remember what I mentioned in the front lesson post, that winds move along the edge of a cold front, in this case from the SW. The biggest area of instability today has been due west and extending to the southwest, each slowly moving south as the cold front progressed. By the time that noon came around, those winds along the edge of the front pushed all of the heavy bands of rain offshore, missing us to the south. Eventually by 1PM all of the precip had eventually moved offshore to the south and east, and with the cold front directly over us, no convection stood a chance at making more showers.
So this brings us over to the left picture and the question, why did the chance of showers and storms drop so fast? Take a look at the what the red arrow on the left is pointing at. That's where the large area of high pressure was supposed to be until this afternoon, but instead the upper-level winds pushed it far out into the Atlantic, meaning that the cold front was free to push on through faster.
So there you have it. Keep your umbrellas on hand just in case until the weekend, especially into Sunday Monday and Tuesday as the sunshine will be in full force.
As for now, time to get a slurpee to counteract all this humidity.
Today's rain may as well be a headache, though tomorrow's will be more for the amount rather than the difficulty in trying to forecast for it. Take a look at the current radar below:
Summary: it's a complete mess. All of those bands are moving at slightly different speeds at slightly different angles, all ranging from intensifying to even dissipating completely. I cannot stress how difficult it is to try and forecast how these storms will move and the timing for them. But it's our job so here it goes:
For NYC and the Metro Area: Some small isolated rain cells are nearby, with rain cells, continuing until the heavier band of rain another 2 hours away (2PM, 40% chance of dissipating), while the heaviest and long-lasing showers and storms currently 3-4 hours away (3-4PM, 20% chance of dissipating or delaying).
Nassau County: Some small isolated rain cells are to the west, with rain cells, continuing until the heavier band of rain another 3 hours away (3PM, 50% chance of dissipating), while the heaviest and long-lasing showers and storms currently 4-5 hours away (4-5PM, 30% chance of dissipating or delaying).
Suffolk County: Some small isolated rain cells are to the west, with rain cells, continuing until the heavier band of rain another 4 hours away (4PM, 70% chance of dissipating), while the heaviest and long-lasing showers and storms currently 5-6 hours away (5-6PM, 30% chance of dissipating or delaying).
And this is only a few hours into the forecasting, see why tomorrow's a headache? Anyways, tomorrow's weather seems to be following a similar pattern to today's with more constant showers/storms slated to start hitting the metro area around noon. Friday is a much better day, partly sunny for the day with only a few showers/storms passing through, nothing too constant.
Finally the weekend: beautiful weather with plenty of sunshine and most importantly: much less humidity. You can go outside and not sweat just by waving to your neighbors.
Also for those wondering, Tropical Storm Chantal has high winds of 45mph with only 1011mb, moving pretty quickly at 30MPH to the WNW. It's currently south of the Dominican Republic, moving into range of Florida by Friday and will start dissipating over Florida by Saturday morning, so nothing for the Northeast to worry about.
Starting with Chantal....50 mph winds moving west quickly. Satellite pix this a.m. does not show a well organized system....and as it heads across Hispanola it could only get worse. In any event....you'll see the Hurricane Center track and then a map showing all of the computer models......which for the most part are in good agreement.
The Canadian Model seems the most agressive.....but we have seen in the past that it overdoes tropical systems. The pattern along the Eastern Seaboard nevertheless is not a good one...and would not discourage tropical trouble.....but I do think that will change by month's end.
National satellite shows the cold front in the Plains which is expected to stall just off the East Coast this weekend. Models want to keep showers going across The Northeast....and while that may be true...the coverage should be spotty and nothing more than we have seen so far. Yesterday's max temps were still uniformly warm Nation-wide...with the cooler temps confined to Northern States.....a place I'm headed to tomorrow. Mike Merin - Joe Leonardi will be posting ....until next week...be safe..later.
Tropical Storm Chantal was born last nite...now 700 miles e/o Barbados. She has 40 mph winds and will get a bit stronger before hitting The Islands late tnte then to Hispanola. Hurricane center brings her toward Bahamas this weekend....Canadian model does likewise and then moves it into Ga/S.C. before weakening. Below...satellite picture of Chantal and the expected track.
Here's The Canadian model for Saturday night. You can see that if Chantal makes it to Bahamas...it has no way to go but into the SE coast.
Satellite pix below shows a definite circulation approaching Bahamas now...and while this may be a reflection of upper air....it's quite defined. Hurricane center not mentioning it....but I would keep my eyes on it.
Final map shows amounts of rainfall for the next few days Nationwide. Hard to say who will get the heavy and more frequent thunderstorms...but this is a tropical pattern up and down East Coast...so anything goes. Stay cool.....later.
With the elongation of the front to the northwest along with the Bermuda High stretching into the deep south, today's storms will be more isolated and less likely for NYC and Long Island, though anywhere north of the LI sound will still face a good chance of passing showers and thunderstorms starting around 2PM and intensifying around 5PM. 8PM seems like it will be the most likely time for precip to reach NYC and then Long Island, although with how erratic the storms will be, and nothing actually on the radar as of yet it's tough to tell the exact time they'll be coming through late in the day.
The good thing though is once the fronts move through tonight, temperatures will drop on the average of 7°, even more inland. While that may not seem like much, mid-upper 80's is a whole lot better than mid 90's, especially when you factor in the humidity.
The models seem to agree that around midnight the storms will temporarily subside before picking up once again early-midday tomorrow and intensifying around 2PM, repeating a similar cycle on Tuesday.
It'll be wet and stormy but less hot and hazy, so be prepared to carry an umbrella around this week for the precip rather than the heat.
As said yesterday, today and tomorrow's temperatures for much of the Northeast will be in the low-mid 90's with heat index values in the reaching 100° and over 100° inland. What's heat index? Well that's temperature combined with the humidity, aka what the body feels like outside. Clouds will be absent for today, meaning that the sun will be hitting us full force, so make sure you have plenty of water with you and put on some sunscreen if you go outside. Also most importantly take care of your kids and pets. Don't let them get dehydrated and make sure they don't get overheated. This is especially if you leave them in cars, so have the AC running if you need to leave them in the car, as the normal greenhouse effect in cars can leave them heating up well over 100° even if the windows are left open. After only 5 minutes the inside of the car can climb 12°, rising 19° after just 10 minutes, and a very scary 45-50° after an hour. With temperatures around 92-95° for this weekend, here's how your car will look with the sun beating down on it:
So keep cool in the heat everyone. Something I've found VERY useful is a misting bottle for a quick and easy cooldown. Tomorrow's showers and thunderstorms should cool things down once they pass through, but that's after the temperatures soar once again. I'm just glad that we're still 11° away from our record highs. Let's hope it turns back into Fall before we have to deal with that.