Low pressure that was centralized in the northern plains continues to move north into Canada while the cold front is dragging south into the Midwest, with another low pressure center building in Kansas. Find weather along the East coast today as high pressure remains in control. The scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will continue east and affect the Northeast into the midweek and perhaps leave just in time for Fourth of July weekend.

But the intriguing story to end June is possibly the first tropical system in the Atlantic for 2014.

The low pressure system located just offshore of Florida is continuing to show signs of development, though at a slow pace...

Water vapor imagery above shows the cluster off the southeast shore. It hasn't had much movement lately and shown progressive signs of organization. The dry air shooting down from the north however is impeding rapid development. It is looking like though by the mid-week, this system could become a tropical depression. It's too early to discuss what kind of path a tropical system that has yet to form is going to take, but for right now, the expectations are that it meanders right where it is into the week.

- JL

The trough located in the Central US is resulting in warm and moist air flowing up form the Gulf of Mexico. There is plenty of lift resulting in pop-up thunderstorms scattered throughout the Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions and further southeast. Towards the Northeast, conditions are beautiful with sun and dry air. The Northeast will gain humidity into the start of next week along with the threat for scattered showers & t-storms...

The above visible satellite image shows just how scattered the clouds and thunderstorms are. Counter-clockwise rotation can be seen up in the Dakotas, where low pressure is centered. The associated fronts that traverse down through the Mississippi River into Missouri and into Oklahoma are where the main threats for strong thunderstorms are later today and into tonight.

This system will spend a couple of days moving east....

One more note of interest are the clouds just off the Carolina coast, showing some signs of organization to become the first Atlantic tropical system of 2014 (Arthur). It will continue to be looked at in the coming days...


- JL

Great weather all around today, so let's switch to something we can talk about and keep in mind for the upcoming months.

If you didn't know already, the Hurricane season has already started! The hurricane season officially started for the Atlantic on June 1st three weeks ago (5/15 for the Pacific) and will last  until November 30th. For the Atlantic though there hasn't really been much to remind us of that as there hasn't been a single storm that formed thus far. Three in the Pacific however and they were record breaking:

May 22nd-29th there was a category 4 hurricane named Amanda with , 155 MPH winds, the strongest May tropical storm in the Pacific. June 2nd-4th there was Tropical Storm Boris, no big deal and didn't stick around for long. And finally June 6-June 15 there was yet another category 4 hurricane, this one named Christina and had 150 MPH winds making it the earliest second major hurricane on record.

Currently though everything is calm, with nothing brewing in the Atlantic and only one small area of disturbance in the Pacific, and even that has only a 10% chance of forming in to a hurricane.

For the Pacific we're already 3 storms in with two of them being major, and all signals point towards it being an above normal season. On average there's 15 named storms a year, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

For the Atlantic though, El Nino should be lowering the amount of storms forming for the Atlantic. On average we have 12 named storms a year, with 6 of them hurricanes and 3 of them major hurricanes, and it seems like there will be slightly below average for this time of year.

These are storms that form, not make landfall. we'll just have to wait and see how this season pans out.

-Mike Merin

Yesterday marked record temperatures for many counties across the US as well as the Northeast. As you can see in the map below, much of the region was baking in the 80's with no shortage of sunshine to make the temps feel even hotter. There were plenty of 90's as well as you go into NJ and southbound.

The reason though why it felt much worse though was because of the high humidity as well as the fact that lows were still in the 70's for the NY metro area or the upper 60's for New England, meaning that there was no break from the hot weather. For those without central air or a good AC system, this also meant that your houses were unable to take a break and take in some of the cooler air to prepare for the hot day.

Enough about yesterday though, onto today:

It will be anywhere from 7-13° cooler today than it was yesterday across the Northeast, with clouds and showers during the day tapering off in the afternoon and leading into sunny skies. Those showers on the radar currently located in western PA will hit the NY metro area in the afternoon, but everything farther to the west will miss us completely.

The same can't be said unfortunately for places like Minnesota. As you can see they have a very large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms drenching the state, and the chance for showers/storms will continue for them over the next 5 days.

Back to the Northeast though, once we get rid of the showers today, Friday Saturday Sunday even into Monday looks like we'll have plenty of sunshine, and more manageable temperatures in the mid-upper 70's. Looking forward to it.

-Mike Merin

On this Father's Day most regions are waking up to sunshine. The exception this morning is for the Midwest and southern plains where a low pressure system is dumping copious amounts of rain. The morning water vapor image below shows just how much moisture there is in the air. The blackened areas represent the parts where the air is barren of moisture.

But even the Northeast is still seeing sunny skies generally as the visible imagery shows below. A ridge is moving into place that will clear the skies into today and tomorrow.

Taking a look at the radar this morning for the Midwest...

Thunderstorms associated with this frontal system could bring heavy gusts and isolated hail events, but the severe threat is not large at this time... As this tries to move east, the strong ridge along the Appalachian Mountains will limit this system's progress and eventually weaken it as it moves towards the east coast by Tuesday & Wednesday this week, dropping the threat down to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the metropolis areas of Washington DC, NYC and areas further northeast.

Enjoy your Father's Day and have a great week!

- JL

The weekend was beautiful for many and wet for some... Into this next week, the moist & unstable air will spread across the Eastern US. Below shows the Infrared imagery of the eastern half of the US on this Sunday afternoon...

Three centers of low pressure are visible here... One entering Pennsylvania, one in Oklahoma, and the last one beginning to show signs of life towards Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. All of these are connected by a long frontal boundary. These regions (Deep south, southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast) are experiencing temperatures around 80 degrees or warmer today, with some areas seeing rain showers and thunderstorms. While areas closer to the Great Lakes in the Midwest are seeing substantial amounts of sunshine and temperatures just reaching 70 degrees for a much more beautiful Sunday!

Into this next week though... The low in the northeast currently will move out early. The low currently entering in the Southeast will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms as it moves east to both the Southeast and the Northeast regions. The system passing by the Rockies however will try to be the bigger story by the end of this week for the east coast which Pat will go into as this wet week progresses.

- JL

A look at the visible imagery big picture of the country shows a dry west whereas from the Central US and eastward, clouds are much more plentiful.

Hazy & humid air is prevalent along a stationary front in the Southeast which could kick up thunderstorm activity in the region through the weekend. Even though the clouds are not thick in the visible, in the water vapor image below, you can see there is plenty of moisture in the Southeast today.

In the Midwest, low pressure is building in Missouri today along the bottom of a cold front extending up through the Great Lakes into Canada. This low will move ENE and could develop into a MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex) through Sunday.

As a result of the current synoptic situation... Conditions across the Midwest will be comfortable as the current systems pass on, whereas into the east, conditions will only get stickier and warmer as the weekend progresses (For the Northeast, look for this by Monday).

- JL