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The beginning of Meteorological Summer, Hurricane season, and the Spring that was in severe weather.

5/31/2014

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A frontal boundary in the upper plains is creating a nasty Saturday, along with the only chance for severe weather today (though a very small threat). In the Southeast, convection is greatly influencing widely scattered rain showers while the Northeast remains dry today. The water vapor imagery below from this afternoon nicely picks up this path of moisture while the movement of dry air is seen in the Northeast.

High pressure will seize control of the Eastern US as this next week starts while various frontal systems will track along the northern states through the week. The upper Midwest will be scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the first half of the week and then dampen the northeast in the latter half. The air temperatures will warm up a bit into the 80's for an early summer feel, along with hazy and humid conditions as these systems pass through your regions in the coming days...
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Tomorrow, June 1st will the be first day of Meteorological Summer and the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Though the Atlantic has been quiet, those who have been paying attention may have already known about Hurricane Amanda which reached Category 4 (The Eastern Pacific Hurricane season officially began on May 15).
Though tornadoes can occur year round, as we move out of Spring, we leave behind the most active period in which they form (the most active MONTH specifically being April). Even though there have been devastating tornadoes as are seen each year, the total number in 2014 is rather low if you look at the climatological data.
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Tornado data from 1954 - 2007
The above chart shows percentile amounts of tornadoes averaged through each year (the key tells how many in each percentile through May 30). Local storm reports so far this year have resulted in a calculated total of 368 tornadoes by the end of May 30 for this year, a number well below the 25th percentile amount of 495.

While any one tornado can be very dangerous and cause catastrophic amounts of damage, the numbers do show that this has been a rather slow year for them.


Enjoy your weekend.

- JL
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Wet - west and south...otherwise not bad

5/30/2014

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Above.....you can see how the satellite corresponds with the surface map. Northern Plains...wet and will stay that way thru the weekend...and Gulf States very unsettled. Rest of the Nation will be fair...with the coolest weather in the Northeast.
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Map above shows how much rain could fall through all of next week. Darkest colors...heaviest rains...over 3". 
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Above...map shows how high temperatures will average all of next week. Red is above normal....blue is below....purple is near. Hurricane season begins June 1...and we will be bringing you a daily update for the tropics beginning next week....until then....be safe and enjoy your weekend.
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A mix of spring and summer

5/29/2014

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Above...today's map showing showers and t-storms from the Carolinas thru the Gulf States. A few more showers and thunderstorms...from The Plains to Southern Rockies.
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Satellite above showers the unsettled weather in the south..
and that will work northeast to affect The East Coast Friday.
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Above....high temperatures expected for this Sunday. This 
map could also extend into early next week as temps. will not be changing much.   Be safe...later.
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Summer goes back to spring....

5/28/2014

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Cold front moving down thru The Northeast...much cooler.
Storm in southern plains will cause more wet weather there.
Moisture from Amanda may bring some showers to Southern California.
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Cold front from Chicago to NYC will end the heat for places north of the front. Wet weather lower Mississippi Valley...and Northern Rockies.
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Above...high temperatures expected for this Saturday. Notice the green for New England....cool.  Same is true for Rockies and Plains..while rest of the Nation is warm.
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Above 2 maps:  1 - thru June 6th..... 2- thru June 10 - shows how temperatures will average.....for the most part - Above average for much of the Nation.  Be safe....later.
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Summerlike with heat and storms...

5/27/2014

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You can see the doughnut shape off the coast of Vancouver...another over Texas/Oklahoma. The system in Texas will bring thunderstorms over the Eastern 2/3 of The Nation for the next couple. System out west may take until this time next week to reach The East.
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Above - Today's map showing showers and storms from Texas to Gt. Lks into The Northeast....some of which will be strong.
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Above...high temperatures expected for this Saturday. Notice the green and yellow for Northeast.... and The Rockies.....that's the coolest weather. 
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Above...high temperatures for next Tuesday - 1 week away. Warming for the Northeast...but even cooler for Rockies. 
Below...satellite picture of Hurricane Amanda....which at one point was a cat. 4 hurricane...but continues to weaken in colder waters as it moves northwest.  Later. 
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Memorial Day: A look, a hurricane, and a salute

5/26/2014

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On the weather side of today, the radar below shows who will be able to BBQ outside or not:
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There's some scattered showers and thunderstorms in New England, much of it occurring in the afternoon when temps will be in the mid 80's, which is up to 10° warmer than yesterday. A line stretches down the center of the nation of precip alongside a front, where everything from ND and MN into TX will see some showers and probable thunderstorms, unfortunately spreading into the Southeast by the end of the day.

Speaking of TX, western TX and into NM will see severe thunderstorms with a chance of possible tornadoes. Last up is the Northwest into Washington which, nothing new, will see yet more showers.

Other than all that though, plenty of sunshine for the rest of the nation.


Oh, did I mention there's a hurricane already? Hurricane Amanda's off the coast of Mexico. It's the strongest May hurricane, nearing a category 5 coming in at 155 mph with 932mb. Unfortunately it's heading towards the Baja Peninsula which will cause no shortage of problems for Northern Mexico and possibly the SW US.
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Lastly though and the most important, a big thank you to everyone that we honor for today.

-Mike Merin
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The Weekend Outlook

5/24/2014

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Taking a look at the radar you wouldn't expect to see any precip across the NY metro area as usually storms generally move West to East, however when you look at the surface map along with it:
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That low pressure means we'll be seeing northerly winds, and that precip will be coming right for us. In addition there will be a few more showers/storms popping up as it gets warmer, but we'll have a 30-50% chance of seeing precip across the NY metro area, more towards the North, less towards the East. Because of the northerly winds this will make for an interesting system with the main energy lingering in the upper atmosphere instead of being drawn up by the Great Lakes, and towards the eastern part of New England there will be more Northeasterly winds meaning more energy from the Atlantic.

This pattern should be gone by tonight, though because of the much warmer temperatures on Sunday (increasing by 5-10° on average) we can't rule out a chance of a pop-up shower and possible thunderstorm as you move north.

The even better news is that it moves to a 0% chance come Monday, maybe a 20% if you're in northern CT or north.

-Mike Merin
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Holiday weather- changeable - many places.

5/23/2014

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Above.....the bright colors in The Plains mean wet and storms...and that is more or less the most likely place for it to stay this weekend.
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The dashed red line on the Northeast will trigger showers and thunderstorms today and again Saturday...rest of the weekend there...fine. The low in Texas Panhandle will be responsible for frequent rain and storms all weekend...some will be severe.
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Above...sunshine map for Saturday. Yellow - lots of sun...grey....lots of clouds.
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Above....map showing conditions for Golf or outside barb-b-cues. Yellow...good...orange ....not the best. Below...amounts of rain for early next week. Lots of wet weather will cover nearly 2/3 of The Nation.  Have a nice ans safe holiday weekend.
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Summer weather gets a "B" for effort

5/22/2014

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Satellite above...shows one pocket of showers and storms from The Ohio Valley to N.Y.C.   Another pocket of heavy storms in Plains headed for The Midwest. Once this pocket  moves off The East Coast...things will get more stable but that may be Sunday at the earliest. 
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Above...today's map - shows the front in the Northeast causing the wet weather. Same front strung out to Rockies will be responsible for unsettled weather for much of The West.  Below....yellow shows where there is the threat of severe thunderstorms today.
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Above...high temperatures expected for Monday...Memorial Day.
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Above...world map showing where there will be precipitation this afternoon. Interesting !  Be safe - later.
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Unsettled but it will get warmer.....

5/21/2014

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Above....jet coming out of Pacific into Arizona and then heads east. The colors reflect showers and thunderstorms over The Ohio Valley - moving east. This pattern will continue to send small disturbances east and will keep an annoying pattern over The East in the weekend.
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Above...map for today. You can see it is noisy with fronts drawn all over the place. Once again...unsettled...and the weather will change from place to place and time to time...so nothing very defined into weekend.
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Above...you can see warm weather most places by Monday - Memorial Day. That warm weather will easily continue over The East into mid part of next week.
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Above...yellow outlines threat of severe weather today.
Be safe....later.
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Showers marching east......

5/20/2014

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Above...today's map showing a low in The Great Lakes pushing showers toward The Northeast. The wavy front in The Rockies may result in unsettled weather this holiday weekend.
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Above...satellite picture showers moisture over Great Lakes...but also another band over Texas,Midwest...Rockies...so a large unsettled mess which may haunt lots of places this holiday weekend.
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Above...map showing high temperatures for Monday - Memorial Day. Could turn out to be the nicest day - Nationwide. 
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Above...Map shows how high temperatures will average thru May 29th.........most of the Nation - ABOVE !  Below...map showing how high temperatures will average thru June 2 -  most of the Nation....ABOVE !   Be safe.
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Typically, more springlike.

5/19/2014

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Above...our satellite shows the next frontal system moving
out of the Rockies into the Plains....with showers and storms. The system will head east and affect the eastern half of The Nation Wednesday/Thursday. 
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Above...weather map for today backing up satellite picture above. Another system along the west coast could be a concern for more showers this Memorial Day Weekend...something we'll focus in on by mid week.
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Above...expected high tempertaures with this Sunday....which should also carry thru the entire holiday weekend. 
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Above map...shows amounts of rain for this up coming holiday weekend. Notice how much of The East is dry. That could easily change since it is more than 5 days out....but certainly looks like the wettest weather will be over Texas and So. Plains....and Northern Rockies and Plains. For now..be safe. 
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Sunshine across the board!

5/18/2014

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Most areas of the country are experiencing beautiful sunshine on this Sunday as the visible imagery shows below.
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With the exception of a weak stationary front traversing eastward through the the southeast, there's a lot of stable air in the atmosphere over the country today. High pressure remains in control for most regions in the Eastern US and plenty more sunshine is expected to follow as the work week starts up... Conditions will change though into the middle of the week...
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The above image shows the gfs model representation of surface pressure early Wednesday morning... High pressure has been pushed to the south and low pressure will enter through the Great Lakes providing a few days of scattered precipitation to the Northeast as we enter Memorial Day weekend.

Temperatures look to remain close to seasonable into the holiday weekend as high pressure will follow the rainy end to the work week, but we can't completely rule out a few showers along the coastline for the weekend just yet.

More details will follow in the coming days. Enjoy you Sunday!

- JL
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A fair weekend for all

5/17/2014

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A pretty standard mid-late Spring weekend for the country. Visible satellite imagery below shows the atmosphere in a quiet state on this Saturday.
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The front that brought plenty of rain to the east coast yesterday has pushed on out and high pressure will settle in for the first half of the week. A few sprinkles could fall in the Northeast on Sunday but generally dry conditions. Temperatures throughout are on par for this time of year. The next area of "concern" shows up late Wednesday taking the path you would generally see an Alberta Clipper follow during the Winter. The model output below shows low pressure across the Great Lakes late Wednesday and will track east-southeast through to the end of the week.
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This will bring out the umbrellas for sure but temperatures won't be affected too much, just a bit below average generally in the affected areas.


Enjoy the rest of your day!

- JL
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Eastern Gully-washer moves out by weekend.

5/16/2014

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Above: Satellite shows conveyor belt of moisture from N.Carolina to New York State. This band will head east and bring 1"-3" of rain to Mid Atl. and Northeast thru tnte.  Notice moisture swirl near Chicago. This upper system could still result in a shower or two from Great Lakes into Northeast this weekend....but scattered.
Cooler weather for East...Warm West.
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Above...today's map showing the wet front in The East. @nd low in Ohio Valley will be nothing but pesty. The heat out west will temper....cooler air from Great Lakes into the Northeast.
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Above....amounts of rain today thru Saturday morning. Heaviest...Northeast...and lower Mississippi Valley. Weather looks to be unsettled next week as we head into Memorial Day Weekend. Too early to call the shots on that. Meanwhile...have a nice safe weekend.
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Wall of Wetness inches east.....

5/15/2014

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Above...large plume of moisture from Georgia to Great Lakes. All moving east...and an average of 1"-3" will fall in this area....locally 4"-6" amounts over Appalachians.
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Above...rainfall amounts thru Saturday a.m. with additional amounts thru Saturday afternoon.
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Risk of severe weather today from Virginias thru Carolinas.
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Above - today's map showing the front will all the rain honking down on the East. Even after that front moves off the coast...a large upper low will keep the Gt. Lks. and Northeast unsettled over the weekend and into early next week.  Be safe.
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Wet weather dragging eastward.....

5/14/2014

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Above....follow the flow...moving down The Rockies...curving up across Texas to The Great Lakes. That's the powerhouse jet stream or trof. The heaviest rains moving north from Texas....with some heavy rain now in The Northeast. As that jet moves east....heavy rains of 1"-3" are likely all across The East by end of the week.
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Above: today's map...showing the front heading east with all of it's rain. Cool high pressure in Plains...Hot out West.
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Above - map showing amounts of rain Friday into Saturday....clearing will need an ark in Northeast and Mid Atlantic....especially late Friday & Friday nite.
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Above...upper air flow at 18,000 ft. This is where we find the jet stream. According to this mean flow chart....cool - unsettled weather for the west and east....best weather...mid nation.
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Above - map depicting high temperatures for this coming Monday. Notice how the green...cool air...has seeped south. The warm weather confined to the southern third of The Nation. I have a feeling that this could prevail thru Memorial Day Weekend...especially since it comes early this year. We'll see. For now...be safe.
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Getting wetter from west to east..............

5/13/2014

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Cold front over Great Lakes will not reach the East Coast until Saturday. As it creeps east...wetness will slowly increase coming to a head Friday/Saturday for East Coast with 1-3" of rainfall.  Below..satellite picture shows moisture moving from south to north with cold front over mid section of the Nation.
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Below...map showing amounts of rain from Friday into Saturday...with an average of 1-2"...locally more than that over the Appalachians. 
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Above...map shows how temperatures will average by day thru May 22nd. Orange = warm .....blue = colder.   Below - map shows how daytime temperatures will average from May 22 to May 26....which includes Memorial Day Weekend. Good luck !
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Summerlike, springlike, dry, then wet.

5/12/2014

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Satellite above: pretty colors in Great Lakes and east....indicate heavy rains and thunderstorms. This is all part of a major trof that will send waves of moisture eastward....but the system in it's entirety will not make it to EastCoast until end of week.....so very unsettled.
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Today's map above: hard to believe that the cold front extending from Iowa to Texas will not reach the East Coast until Saturday. Ahead of it..warm...increasingly moist...behind it...cool and unsettled. UGH !
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Above: Amounts of rain this Thursday into weekend: 1-2" on the average.....so you will be able to watch your grass grow.
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Today's threat for severe weather - yellow above.
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Above...high temperatures for this Friday. Notice how the cool down has stretched from The Dakotas....to East Coast. I don't see much promise for this pattern to change into Memorial Day Weekend....and since it is early this year that could be a problem. For now...go slow...later.
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Is it hot in here? Good, it's not just me

5/10/2014

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Time to get a little taste of Summer.

Yesterday's highs for the NE were in the low-mid 60's and today they'll be approaching 80°, even higher towards central New England. While the lowest temperature across the US this morning was a mere 25° in Lake Yellowstone, WY and Alturas, CA, today's high will be an even 100° in the SW coastal plain of Texas.
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The high temps will also come with another volley of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially in this afternoon. The good news is that they'll be very scattered, so we won't be too battered by it. The greatest chance of the heavier precip and thunderstorms seems to be from sundown tonight into just after midnight, though the chance still remains for more pop-up storms during the day with the higher temps.
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Tomorrow's forecast for mother's day seems to be sunny for much of the Northeast, so enjoy it everyone.

-Mike Merin
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Everything coming up Roses for Sunday....

5/9/2014

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Above...Satellite shows large swath of moisture from Great Lakes & south. This front will move east and cause wet weather into weekend along the East Coast. Notice how the band of moisture is bending along the west coast ?  That jet stream will bring big problems to the Eastern Half of the Nation next week.
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Above...yellow indicates threat of severe weather today.  Below...severe threat for weather on Saturday. Good news...no severe weather expected on Sunday for Mother's Day.
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Below...a look at The Canadian Model for late next week. It wants to form some sort of tropical system and bash it into the Carolinas. All of this because of that jet stream now along the west coast which will 
continue to hit into a block and force tropical  moisture north. Thinking is that next week will not only be highly unsettled for East...but stormy.
Until then...enjoy your weekend...be safe...and Happy Mother's Day to
all.
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Changes boiling up.....

5/8/2014

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Satellite above...shows small band of rain moving across Northeast.
Moisture moving north from The Gulf...creating large swath of bad weather from Rockies to Plains to Gt. Lks. Lots of severe weather last night there...and that will be the case again today. Remember..black is dry..clear skies.
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Above..today's map: Warm front (red- semi circles) goes from Gt. Lakes to Northeast. Ahead of it...wet and damp. Cold front...Minnesota to Texas...causing showers and t-storms ahead of it. 
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Above - severe weather threat today.....with southern Minnesota and Iowa having the best chance of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes. 
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Above...severe weather threat for Friday...from Indiana to Arkansas.

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Above...maps shows high temperatures for Sunday, Mom's Day. Most will see warm weather with the exception of The Rockies....where places like Colorado will get snow.....yes...in May.  Be safe today...pay attention to warnings where weather may be severe.
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Changes into the weekend......

5/7/2014

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Above....satellite pix shows band of moisture from Michigan to Ohio...that is a warm front...which will creep east. Moisture over the Plains...a cold front...also not in a hurry to head east....so unsettled to storm weather will plague the mid section of the Nation next few days..
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Above...warm front (red line with semi circles) stretches from Plains to
Carolinas. As it lifts north - slowly - it will produce unsettled weather. Cold front over Plains will be responsible for locally severe weather.
Below...maps showing severe threat for today...and then tomorrow..
Thursday.
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Below....map showing the high temperatures for this Sunday...Mother's Day. Most of the Nation will be warm...and just who will see rain ...we will wait to take a look at that tomorrow.  Later.
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The ballad of sunshine, until Thursday at least

5/6/2014

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Like good weather? Well then today and tomorrow are just for you. For the northeast today we'll have partly sunny skies, clearing way to mostly sunny skies by late-day, and tomorrow will hold even more sunshine than today.

The catch is that tomorrow night the clouds and rain will catch back up with us and will continue to be a scattered nuisance from Thursday all the way into mid-Sunday, with even a chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday. The good news though is that again, it's scattered so we'll be hovering between a 30% and 50% chance of rain from Thursday into Sunday.

Below is the precip map for Thursday alone; you can see the NY metro area in that hotspot for the more concentrated precip. Grtanted it's nowhere near what's in the center of the country, we'll have a chance of seeing up to half an inch nonetheless, possibly more if thunderstorms hit.
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The 4-5 day aggregate precip amounts show us still well off of the heaviest precip but still in range of the scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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Unfortunately the models are still predicting scattered precip for Mother's day, though there will still be partly sunny skies for us to enjoy when the showers don't hit us.

Let's hope those showers break up by the time they get here.

-Mike Merin
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Nice start but a wet finish .....

5/5/2014

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Above....satellite picture showing band of moisture in Great Lakes which will slip southeast and off Mid Atlantic. Moisture over Rockies will be next major system for Plains mid week...East Coast late week.
Below....current map....showing lots of clouds...but not much precip.
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Below....2 maps...first one showing chances of severe weather Wednesday over the Plains in yellow. Second map - purple - showing severe potential for Thursday and Friday.
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Below...map showing amounts of precip. late week across the Nation. Looks quite unsettled and it could continue into this weekend....but
hopefully will break in time for Mom's Day. Be safe. Later.
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