Water vapor sat pix show major weather system in mid U.S. You can see the humid weather for The East...and look how it carves itself out in the Gulf......good place for something tropical to form. Not sure if it will be remains of Barbara or just new.
Ocean temps. are certainly warmer than normal and this should prompt tropical development earlier than expected.
Here is the Canadian Model for 144/192 hr - next Friday night. They have been insisting on this all week. Looks quite practical.
Back to short range: cold front moves across East on Monday with heavier rain and thunderstorms....some may be severe especially Northeast. Front moves offshore and stalls. High pressure moves into the Northeast...as 500 trof heads across Ohio/ Tnn Valleys. Here's the fetch of tropical moisture that extends from old front...and then gets absorbed by 500 trof. By late next week this leaves a large area of wet weather from the Midwest/Oh.Valley thru the Southeast. Ass to that the possible tropical development in Gulf and you have quite a wet pattern by end of next week. How it will resolve itself is far from certain. Looks like the 500 trof will scoop the tropical moisture up The Appalachians and then toward the coast. For now...enjoy summer...have a nice weekend...see ya next Monday. Weather or not...have a nice weekend.
With ridge anchored in western Atlantic...changes here will be slow...but there will be changes by Monday. At that time cold front will approach and all parameters suggest a good shot of heavy rain and convection. Map below shows the story quite simply.
Still see an inverted trof off East coast next week....so June may be busting out all over in more ways than one. Satellite pictures already show semi-tropical wave off Fla....it will bring several inches of rain to So. Fla into weekend. This system will reform and likely head into Gulf and I think it will become Andrea. My long range progs indicated a possible development...so why not go with it for now. Canadian most aggressive...taking this "thing" up coast to off Va.
Don't see much happening until Monday when front approaches and then later next week. Of interest, below...you will see a map that shows where record highs and lows have been established across the Globe.
Finally...the above map shows The GFS precipitation tracker....which clearly shows the cold front approaching Monday....thereafter you can see precip stalling over the southeast. We'll follow it next week. Later.
Most of the northeast under slight risk today. Satellite pix showing some sun.....so this may add to the possibility. Once this threat is over...it's basic early summer weather into the weekend. A random thunderstorm possible...otherwise next front moves in Monday. Still think that an inverted sfc trof sets up sometime next week...and will lead to the tropical connection. GFS and Canadian hinting at something tropical
and it's likely to happen. Longer range indicates Gulf...then northeastward. This is going to be a wet muggy summer for the Northeast....signs of it starting already.
The constant showers from today are tapering off for much of the NE, and have taken a break over NYC, though this is only the first round. Later on tonight for the Metro Area near midnight more showers and possible thunderstorms will pass through, and the chance for showers/storms will continue on Wednesday along with gusty winds in areas of thunderstorms. We'll keep our eye on the radar as the system picks up more energy.
Warm front moving thru next couple with wet weather. Possibility of some severe weather in The Northeast tomorrow. 850 shows it warm enough for 90° + end of week into weekend.
Next cold front supported by positive tilt trough comes thru Monday of next week.....but Atlantic high will block it and a conveyor belt of tropical moisture may get established along the East coast. Aside from that - not much to get excited about in the next several days.
The storm system we've been keeping our eye on is moving normally, but the models are showing it moving a bit faster than anticipated during the early hours of Tuesday, meaning that instead of rain arriving near midnight for the tri-state area, we may see drizzles as early as 5PM on Tuesday with the heavier bands and possible thunderstorms arriving by 8PM.
Eastern CT will see these showers and then storms around 8PM/11PM respectively, Keene NH 2AM/8AM.
We'll get a better grip on timing come early tomorrow morning when the models run once again, so Pat will take the helm at that time and let you all know when you should expect the rain.
High pressure will be dominating the Northeast for tomorrow, and in fact most of the eastern seaboard will be enjoying the large amount of sunshine. Along with calmer winds and temperatures becoming more seasonal (mid 70's in NYC and DC, lower 70's in CT, 70° NH and Boston) it'll be a perfect day for a BBQ and sports.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night we'll have a chance of showers passing through for the metro area, but other than that it'll be a good week ahead of us.
Enjoy your day off.
500 low cuts off over NYC....so clouds...wind and rain until it exits by Sunday. Oragraphics plus 500 Low and cold pocket thinks will present highest elevations with some snow.
Improvement sets in Sunday/ Monday. Pattern flip flops...so unseasonably chilly goes to unseasonably warm late next week.
We'll be enhancing these discussions more in weeks to come.
Enjoy your weekend.