SATELLITE PICTURE REVEALS STRONG STORM OFF CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BRING RAIN TO WEST COAST TODAY AND EVEN THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SPOTTY TORNADO....TO CALIFORNIA. THIS IS THE STORM THAT WILL COME EAST ....IN REDUCED INTENSITY....BUT NOTHING BUT A BIG WINTER HEADACHE FROM OHIO VALLEY TO EAST COAST BY MONDAY. (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
ABOVE - CLOSE UP....VIGOROUS STORM IN PACIFIC. BELOW...CURRENT MAP WHICH SHOWS THAT STORM.
BELOW...MAP FOR SUNDAY. OUR CALIFORNIA LOW IS MOVING ALONG THAT FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE AN INTENSE STORM..IT WILL BRING A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF IT'S TRACK...AFFECTING BIG CITIES LIKE PHILY AND NYC BY MONDAY.
ABOVE...BY MONDAY...IT'S A WAVE TRAINS OF LOWS ALONG THAT FRONT. FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU OHIO VALLEY...HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL...AND A SWATH OF 6-12" LIKELY ALL THE WAY TO EAST COAST. MORE ON THIS THRU THE WEEKEND. HAVE A NICE AND SAFE ONE.
SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS THE COLD AIR PLUNGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF STATES. (BLACK INDICATES CLEAR-DRY). LOOK AT THE SWIRL ON THE WEST COAST. IT'S RAINING HEAVY AS FAR SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES. THAT STORM HEADS EAST AND WILL SEPARATE INTO A COUPLE OF PIECES BY NEXT MONDAY. (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
ABOVE....GFS MODEL FOR MONDAY. 2 STORMS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC. HEAVY WINTRY PRECIP CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC. BOSTON - SNOW - NYC - SNOW/ICE...PHILY - SNOW/ICE/RAIN.
ABOVE...CANADIAN MODEL FOR MONDAY. MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH ROOM FOR 2ND LOW OFF MID ATLANTIC...MUCH LIKE GFS.
ABOVE - EURO MODEL....FOR MONDAY NITE. SHOWS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. CLEARLY INDICATING MORE SNOW FOR BIG CITIES.
ABOVE - UK MET MODEL FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EURO.
SO AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF THE GAME...MODELS CLUSTERED IN SAME CAMP...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A MISERABLE WINTER STORM FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. TOUGH CALL ON AMOUNTS: LESS PRECIP FALLS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...BUT SINCE THEY ARE COLDER..SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER...SO 6"+ THERE. NYC - SNOW AND ICE....EASILY 6"+ ETC.
AS YOU CAN SEE BY THE MAP BELOW...OUTPUT IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN .75" AND 1.00" OF LIQUID...SO IF THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO MIXING WE ARE LOOKING AT 10"-12" POTENTIAL.
SATELLITE PICTURE CLEARLY SHOWS THE 2 JET STREAM REMAINING SEPARATE. THE THIN LINE OF BLUE FROM OHIO TO N.J. WILL RESULT IN A TEASE OF SNOW TODAY. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. NOTICE THE MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH ALONG WEST COAST AND GOING UP AND OVER ALASKA AND
THEN DIVING SOUTH. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF YOU CLICK ON IMAGE AND LOOK IN THE NW TERRITORY OF CANADA YOU WILL SEE A DISTINCT SWIRL....THAT IS A POTENT UPPER AIR SYSTEM HEADED SOUTH.
CURRENT MAP SHOWS FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST...WHERE A DUSTING TO 1" POSSIBLE FROM NYC TO DELMARVA. SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAIN STAY SOUTH.
ABOVE...JAPAN MODEL SHOWING SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. THIS MODEL WANTS TO BRING RAIN TO MAJOR CITIES...SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF STORM FROM CHICAGO TO BUFFALO.
ABOVE...THIS MAP SHOWS THE THINKING FROM THE NWS. THEY INDICATE THE STORM TO BE FURTHER SOUTH..INDICATING MORE SNOW AND ICE NORTH OF MASON/DIXON LINE MONDAY. I THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRAWN OUT..AND IN 2-3- PARTS LEAVING US WITH A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF WINTRY PRECIP FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. DETAILS NOT WORKED OUT YET...BUT I'M SURE THEY WON'T BE PRETTY. BELOW....A COPY OF A WIND CHILL CHART COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE...AND PRINT AND KEEP IT HANDY. BE SAFE. LATER.
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS OHIO AND PA. WILL CAUSE SOME FLURRIES IN NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TODAY...NO BIG DEAL..JUST TO REMIND YOU IT IS WINTER. THE BRIGHT COLORS IN TEXAS WILL HEAD ACROSS THE GULF STATES AS YOU CAN SEE THE 2 JET STREAMS REMAINING SEPARATE. UNLESS THEY MERGE...BIG STORMS NOT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. BELOW WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOW THE MODELS DIFFER. (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
THE GFS ABOVE....WANTS TO BRING IN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MONDAY/TUESDAY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE NE, GT. LKS, OHIO VALLEY AND EAST COAST. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY START AS SNOW AND SLEET AND CHANGE TO RAIN FROM NYC ON SOUTH.
THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND SNOW ONLY IN THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THE EURO HAS THE AREA IN HIGH PRESSURE BUT AND TROF FORMS FROM APPALACHIANS TO GULF COAST. SIMILAR TO GFS BUT NOT AS ROBUST. OUR TAKE: THE GFS. THINK THE MODEL IS RIGHT ON PHASING THE JET STREAMS AND DO FEEL A MAJOR WINTER STORM IN IN THE MAKING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION BY
START OF NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...BUNDLE UP. LATER.
SATELLITE SHOWS 2 JET STREAMS ON THE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST, YOU CAN SEE THE POLAR VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA..AND IN IT'S PRESENT POSITION...ANY STORMS ALONG THE JET WILL HEAD THRU CAROLINAS AND OUT TO ATLANTIC. SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO NORTHEAST...BEST CHANCE EASTER L.I. AND CAPE COD. (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
MAP BELOW...SHOWS CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: NOTICE THE WINTER ADVISORIES DOWN SOUTH.
CURRENT SURFACE MAP BELOW SHOWS COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE NATION - EAST OF ROCKIES., IN THE NORTH...THE COLD WILL BE MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN LATE FEB.
MAP ABOVE IS FOR MID DAY WEDNESDAY FROM GFS MODEL. SHOWING LOW OFF MID ATLANTIC WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ON THIS TREND...1-3" COULD FALL OVER EASTERN L.I AND CAPE COD. COULD THIS LOW TURN MORE NORTH AND BRING SNOW TO CITIES LIKE PHILY - NYC ? YES....BUT AT THIS TIME...MODELS INDICATE THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN AND NO REASON TO DOUBT THEM AT THIS TIME....SO LET'S GO ALONG WITH THE FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM
TO WATCH WILL BE THIS WEEKEND. MORE ON THAT LATER. BE SAFE.
Most of the country is dry today with the mildest temperatures of the month continuing into the weekend before the cold air moves back into place. The water vapor and infrared imagery below both show how dry the air is today.
After a weak trough brings widely scattered and light precipitation to the eastern US into Sunday night, the cold winter air will return for next week for the eastern US.
Tuesday into Wednesday the next low pressure system develops along the Gulf Coast and then run up the eastern seaboard. The below image shows the position of the developing storm late Tuesday. The uncertainty currently lies in the exact track once it makes its move northeast. Whether it be far enough out to seas or not and thus avoid a classic nor'easter will be determined in future model runs.
Enjoy the rest of the mild weekend.
SATELLITE SHOWS COLD FRONT HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE FOGGY...MILD...SOMETIMES WET...THUNDER AND
SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. SNOWS MOVING OUT OF GT. LKS. (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
ABOVE....YELLOW SHOWS RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY....GREEN IS GENERAL AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ABOVE...TRAVEL DELAYS BECAUSE OF THE WEATHER. THE BRIGHTER THE COLORS...THE BIGGER THE DELAY. GOOD LUCK.
ABOVE...INNOCENT LOOKING MAP FOR THIS SUNDAY....FOR THE MOST PART IT IS. THE LITTLE LOW ON COLD FRONT NEAR TENNESSEE COULD BRING A LIGHT SWATH OF SNOW EAST TO MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT....AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST. AFTER THAT...PLUNGES OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE...WHILE A WAVE TRAIN OF LOWS
SCOOTS ALONG THAT FRONT. ANY OF THESE COULD TURN OUT TROUBLESOME...HARD TO SAY NOW. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A SYSTEM TO BREAK THRU THE RIDGE ON WEST COAST AND COME EAST. THAT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...
ENJOY THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE ABOVE SHOWERS A COMPLEX STORM IN THE PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE INTO GREAT LAKES AND BRING A BLIZZARD TO WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA. YOU CAN SEE THE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING RIGHT INTO THE STORM. (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
CURRENT MAP SHOWING LOW IN COLORADO WHICH WILL BRING THE BLIZZARD TO GREAT LAKES. AT SAME TIME...IT WILL BRING A RASH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SOME TORNADOES TODAY
TO PLACES EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THAT AREA PROGRESSES TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. (MAPS BELOW)
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS WILL BE GRADUAL. BY MID NEXT WEEK...MUCH OF THE NATION E/O THE ROCKIES WILL BE AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP FROM WEST TO EAST...SMALL STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IT IS ANYONE'S GUESS IF ANY OF THEM WILL GROW TO BE A BIG WINTER STORM. FOR NOW..ENJOY THE FEBRUARY THAW.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY....THEN MILDER AND WET INTO END OF WEEK. ARCTIC AIR TAKES A BREAK...SHORT ONE. INTENSE STORM HEADS INTO GREAT LAKES AND WISCONSIN....YOU GET A BLIZZARD THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THAT STORM ...A SQUALL LINE WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY ..ON SOUTH..AND AS YOU HEAD SOUTH..EVEN A TORNADO POSSIBLE...ALL ON THURSDAY. THE MILDER WEATHER AND RAIN...COMBINED WITH CLOGGED SEWERS....SNOW MELT...SURE TO RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. BELOW...SATELLITE SHOWING TODAY'S SNOW IN
NEW ENGLAND..RAIN ELSEWHERE...AND THE NEST SPRING-LIKE STORM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS. MAP TO FOLLOW..IS FOR THURSDAY. CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE.
NEXT 2 MAPS SHOW....HOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE COMPARED TO "NORMAL". BLUE IS BELOW...YOU GUESSED IT.
2ND MAP SHOWS AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
1"-2" ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND COULD PROVE
FINALLY...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THRU 14 DAYS....WHICH TAKES US THROUGH MARCH 4TH. EASTERN 2/3 OF NATION....KEEP YOUR COATS HANDY. ENJOY THE MILDER WEATHER...BE SAFE.
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST TODAY...BUT THE SUN WILL BE OUT THERE BY LATE DAY. SATELLITE PPICTURE BELOW....SHOWS THE SWIRL OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE SYSTEM BRING THAT SNOW TO NORTHEAST. THE GREEN AND BLUE IN THE PLAINS...NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SOME SNOW AND RAIN TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
REMEMBER, CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE. BELOW...MAP SHOWING STORM TRACK FOR TODAY IN THE EAST...AND NEXT STORM IN PLAINS.
TODAY'S MAP SHOWING THE SNOW EAST...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS...ALL MOVING RAPIDLY EAST.....NONE OF WHICH ARE BIG WINTER STORMS.
BELOW...SURFACE MAP FOR NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWS A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH IN THE MID PART OF THE NATION. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NATION WITH COLD AIR...BUT AT LEAST NO STORMS.
BELOW...CANADIAN MODEL PROJECTS ANOTHER ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE U.S. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY !
HAPPY PRESIDENT'S DAY ...AND IF YOU ARE OFF...ENJOY IT. SATELLITE SHOWS FAIR SKIES IN THE EAST. SNOW IN MIDWEST WILL DROP 3"-6" IN PLACES LIKE CHICAGO UP TO DETROIT...THEN MARCH EAST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE 2"-4"...
COASTAL SECTIONS AN INCH OR TWO. SATELLITE BELOW SHOWS THAT SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
BELOW....CURRENT MAP SHOWING STORM MOVING THRU CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW THAT...MAP SHOWING HOW THAT LOW PROGRESSES TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
BELOW...SNOWCOVER MAP. IT'S THIS SNOWCOVER THAT WILL HOLD BACK MILD WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS. THE COVER WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR COLDER TEMPS. AT NITE AS LONG AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS CALM.
SAVES THE BEST FOR LAST. EURO MODEL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY...DEPICTING SO VERY COLD AIR AGAIN READY TO MOVE SOUTH. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT...LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL NOT ONLY GROW COLDER..BUT WILL GET WHITE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION.
The weather pattern has not been very kind this season and it has felt like there have been 2 storms a week for many regions. This week was no different but today's event does not appear to be as snowy as the others.
The above enhanced water vapor imagery shows the circulation centered off the Virginia/NC coast. It's movement northeast will bring snow showers to the NYC Metro area and onward through New England.
Once this system moves out, the next
THE MAJOR STORM THAT HIT THE NORTHEAST YESTERDAY WILL EXIT OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AFTER DROPPING ANOTHER 2"-6" OF SNOW. WE UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS NYC & LONG ISLAND SINCE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WAS VERY RELUCTANT TO MOVE NORTH. IN ANY EVENT...BELOW YOU WILL SEE TODAY'S MAP...AS WE SAY GOOD BYE TO ONE....AND LOOK AT THE NEXT COMING THIS WAY FROM MIDWEST.
SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS THE BIG EAST COAST STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND. CLICK ON IMAGE AND NOTICE THE CIRCULAR SHAPE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS IS THE UPPER LOW THAT RESULTED IN MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT. YOU CAN SEE THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT STORM HITS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND INTENSIFIES. WE THINK
THAT MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST WILL GET OFF LIGHT WITH THIS....BUT EASTERN MOST NEW ENGLAND...COULD EASILY SEE
ANOTHER 1/2 FOOT. TEMPS. MODERATE ACROSS THE NATION
NEXT WEEK AS WE AWAIT THE FEBRUARY THAW ! HAVE A NICE SAFE WEEKEND.
INTENSIFYING STORM APPROACHES CAPE HATERS -N.C. THIS MORNING AND MOVES UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING.
HEAVY SNOW FROM APPALACHIANS - TO NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING MAJOR CITIES. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF I 95...INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE 12-18" WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF SNOW TO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT...WHEN MANY PLACES WHO HAD RAIN AND SLEET CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MAKING CONDITIONS TREACHEROUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. REMEMBER..CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE. BELOW...TODAY'S WEATHER MAP....SHOWING THE STARRING ROLE...ON EAST COAST.
YOU CAN SEE HOW OUR STORM HAS GROWN SINCE YESTERDAY'S SATELLITE PICTURE. NOTICE THE STREAM OF MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND FEEDING RIGHT INTO THE TROF IN THE EAST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT PROBLEM FOR MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
BELOW...MAP SHOWING HOW MUCH LIQUID COULD FALL WITH THIS STORM. MANY PLACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE 10"-18" OF SNOW. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BE SLAMMED BY A POWERFUL SYSTEM...HEAVY RAIN...HEAVY SNOW FOR MTS.
ABOVE...THIS IS WHAT THE SATURDAY MAP WILL LOOK LIKE. MODELS ARE VERY SHY WITH PRECIP. ON THIS COASTAL LOW....BUT AS WE GET RID OF THIS ONE...A BETTER HANDLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON THE NEXT ONE. EVEN THOUGH THIS LOOKS SCARY...I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE A BIGGIE....NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FROM MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY. REMEMBER...PLEASE BE CAREFUL IF TRAVELING IN ANY OF THESE STORMY AREAS...AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY THROUGH THE DAY ....HERE AND ON FACEBOOK.
STORM IN GULF HEADS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AND THEN UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM WILL INTENSIFY AND BRING SERIOUS WINTRY WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE EAST TODAY THRU FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. BELOW...CURRENT MAP.....FOLLOWED BY MAP FOR THURSDAY...WITH MAIN ATTENTION ON COASTAL STORM. JUIST CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE.
OUR SATELLITE SHOT CLEARLY SHOWS THE STORM GATHERING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST....LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THIS
WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER STORMS. INLAND AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE COAST...WILL SEE 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET OF SNOW....WHILE NYC AND BOS WILL GET ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6"-10" OF SNOW AND SLEET...+ RAIN AND WIND.
FINALLY....CANADIAN MODEL INDICATING ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE SATURDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH WE DON'T BELIEVE THIS STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
MIDATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. ON A BRIGHT NOTE...DEFINITELY MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.........SO TAKE A DEEP BREATH AND BE SAFE.
FIRST OF ALL, WE ARE TRYING TO POST IN A WAY THAT YOU WILL BE ABLE TO CLICK ON THE ICON WITHIN EACH PICTURE TO ENLARGE.
FAIR AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. VERY WET WEATHER OUT WEST. ENERGY FROM THESE JET STREAMS WILL HEAD EAST AND FORM INTO A LARGE EAST COAST STORM THURSDAY. IT WILL BRING AN ASSORTMENT OF WINTRY PRECIP. FROM MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST. MANY PLACES FROM CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL GET OVER 1 FOOT OF SNOW...AND SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN JUST SOME ICE...LEADING TO A SERIOUS ICE STORM. BELOW--- SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWING THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF MOISTURE. CLICK TO ENLARGE THE GIF.
BELOW...FIND CURRENT WEATHER MAP...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS CALM. THEN FOLLOWING...WHAT THE MAP WILL LOOK LIKE THURSDAY...WITH THE MAJOR STORM ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. FOLLOWING THAT, THE RIGHT MAP SHOWS HOW MUCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION CAN FALL WITH THE EAST COAST STORM. REMEMBER..WHERE THIS IS SNOW...THE RATIO IS GENERALLY 10" TO 1" OF LIQUID.
BELOW...YOU WILL FIND THE MAJOR COMPUTER MODELS...ALL FOR THURSDAY...REGARDING EAST COAST STORM. AS YOU WILL SEE...ALL ALMOST IN THE SAME CAMP OR LOCATION....BUT 50 MILES WEST OT EAST CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW AND SNOW TO RAIN FOR BIG CITIES FROM BALTIMORE TO BOSTON.
MORE ON THIS TOMORROW.
AS YOU CAN SEE BY OUR WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PIX BELOW...THE MAIN STREAM OF MOISTURE COMING IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND HEADING EAST. FOR NOW THIS ZONE WILL BRING MOST OF THE NATION'S PRECIP FROM OUT WEST THRU THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
WEATHER MAP TODAY SHOWS ALL OF THE LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST AND IT WILL RIDE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...SOME ICE AND SNOW WILL HIT THE SOUTHLAND. BELOW - MAP SHOWING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES- NATION-WIDE.
BELOW...MAP SHOWING THURSDAY'S POTENTIAL STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST AS PROJECTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CLEARLY SUCH A TRACK COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO NORTHEAST....BUT NOT ENTIRELY THAT EASY.
NOW BELOW...THE MODELS: FIRST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE...THE EUROPEAN. IT WILL INDICATE HEAVY SNOW/ ICE/ EVEN SOME RAIN.
NEXT IN LINE WOULD BE THE UKMET....WHICH IS PROJECTING A SNOWSTORM.....THIRD....THE CANADIAN...HEAVY SNOW THEN ICE AND EVEN RAIN.
LASTLY...DON'T KNOW IF THE ANIMATION WILL WORK...BUT THE GFS PRECIP. FORECAST. IN ANY EVENT...ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WITH THURSDAY'S EAST COAST STORM IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BE MARGINAL. ANOTHER PROBLEM IF THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME CYCLONIC...SO COASTAL AREAS MAY BE INFLUENCED BY 40 DEGREE WATER TEMP. AS WITH ALL COASTAL STORMS...THE EXACT PATH - SPEED - INTENSITY ALL WEIGH IN ON THE OUTCOME. WHATEVER...THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NICE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. LATER.
The models have lightened up for today's snow in the NY metro area, dipping from an average of 2-3" down to 1-2". Flurries will lead into light snow showers and then the main course, which again is merely snow showers at this moment. You can see below the "heaviest" part of the storm which now features much lighter green.
High pressure to the south will continue to push the bigger weather north, but even that part of the storm has been downgraded with the bigger shearing of the storm.
Monday through Wednesday should feature sunshine.
But Thursday and Friday. Thursday will have clouds, but the models are unsure whether the next storm will come in on Thursday or Friday since there are two parts to the end of the week's storm. It's the classic "models can't see it now" which means they're having trouble predicting how the larger ridge in the middle of the nation will block it to slow it down.
My prediction is that we'll just catch the northern end of the storm on Thursday, but here's the reason the models are unsure:
Early Thursday morning the jet stream will hit a block over the Atlantic meaning that the winds will drastically shift northward as it hits the Eastern seaboard. The models have slowly been trending away from it passing us by to the south and more towards stalling slightly meaning we'll see precip. The factors in which we'll see anything depends on timing mainly:
Worst case: ridge block means early stalling, leads to northern movement earlier and we get hit on Thursday. There will be some rain mixed in with this as well which on one hand may melt some snow, but on the other hand will refreeze at night.
Classic case: normal movement means minimal stalling, storm to south to hit and may see just the northern tip of the storm Thursday, meaning lighter rain and snow showers (mostly snow), otherwise we'll get lake-effect snow the following day.
Best case: acceleration via the jet if it dips south means acceleration, storm will ride that acceleration and move into the Atlantic before touching us, which means we're clear on Thursday and only Friday lake-effect snow.
The good news is that there's a good chance the end of week temps will be warm enough to cause more rain than snow, but we'll have to wait another day or two for it to surface and for the models to get a better idea of how it will move.
This weekend has been one of the most anticipated weekends weather wise by the public screaming for 30" of snow based off one person posting one model output a while ago. The end result of course is not a storm as we all knew it would be... Well, that is assuming you don't count a possible couple of inches as a storm (Which I know I don't). The nation is littered with cloud cover so we shall take a look at the Water Vapor imagery to dissect what's happening on this Saturday and use it glance into the future a bit.
The patch that can be seen near the Chicago area will be the center focus for the northeast region and a bit into the Mid-Atlantic as well. Models still showing a slight disagreement in how this clipper develops as it moves east but the general outlook appears to be a 1"-2" range for snow through Sunday night and into the early AM hours of Monday when it shifts offshore....
The next point of interest is the Southeast early next week. Many models are showing the POTENTIAL for an event. Here's one example of the GFS for Tuesday afternoon...
It should be noted that 72 hours out, model variance can still be quite high for a system moving across the Gulf/Atlantic coast such as this one and that the spread of POTENTIAL precipitation types cannot be determined at this point with any real confidence. What's to be noted is the energy is there for a storm to happen and will likely be the highlight of many forecast discussions in the region into early next week as the rest of the country will be for the most part rather quiet at that time.
Have a great finish to your weekend as we enter Valentine's Day week!
THE PLAYERS WERE ON THE FIELD BUT JUST WON'T BE GETTING TOGETHER SO THAT MEANS A STORM-FREE WEEKEND FOR THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS BEEN BATTERED WITH ONE OF THE BIGGEST STORMS THIS SEASON...PORTLAND OREGON RECEIVING 9" OF SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NORMALLY..THEY GET LIKE 3" FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON. THAT STORM MAY MAKE IT TO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STORM THAT I WAS WORRIED ABOUT WILL BE IN TWO PARTS: ONE GOING OFF THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY....OTHER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
THE LACK OF ANY COLOR ENHANCEMENT INDICATES THE LOW ENERGY...ACROSS THE NATION. THE "PINEAPPLLE EXPRESS" IS STREAMING MOISTURE FROM HAWAII TO WEST COAST....SO MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL THERE THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE ...
NOTHING MAJOR. BELOW...YOU WILL FIND THE CURRENT WEATHER MAP....WHICH SHOWS MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIP. NATIONWIDE.
BELOW...MAP SHOWING HOW WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SEPARATE THIS WEEKEND. COLD WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. BACK ON THIS DAY IN 1978....THE GREAT BLIZZARD FOR THE NORTHEAST WAS JUST WINDING DOWN AFTER DROPPING 1-3 FT OF SNOW AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WE PREDICTED THAT STORM OVER 1 WEEK IN ADVANCE AND THAT WAS BACK IN 1978. I WORKED ON THAT STORM WITH THE FORMER DR. BOB HARRIS OF WOR RADIO...AND
CRAIG ALLEN..OF WCBS RADIO.....AMONG MANY OTHERS THAT WERE IN THE WEATHER CENTER AT THAT TIME. THANK GOD THERE ARE NO
VISIONS OF SUCH IN THE NEAR FUTURE. HAVE A NICE WEEKEND.
TWO WINTER STORMS HAVE AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS WEEK WITH MUCH SPECULATION ON A THIRD THIS WEEKEND. MOST IF NOT ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY TYPE OF MAJOR STORM. SORRY TO BE THE SAD SACK....BUT NOT READY TO DISMISS A MAJOR STORM YET. LET'S GO BACK TO LAST FRIDAY- PRIOR TO SUPERBOWL: HOW MANY FORECASTERS INCLUDING ME....WERE CALLING FOR 6"+ OF SNOW FOR THIS PAST MONDAY ? ANSWER: NONE. MODELS STARTED HINTING ON SATURDAY...BUT LATE SUNDAY THEY WERE FORECASTING HEAVY SNOW. POINT: NEED TO WAIT AT LEAST 48 HRS. PRIOR TO AN EVENT BEFORE PULLING THE PLUG OR TAKING THE PLUNGE. BELOW..TODAY'S WEATHER MAP....FOR A CHANGE - STORM- FREE.
ABOVE...SATELLITE SHOWS ENERGY OVER CALIFORNIA....AND YOU WILL NOTICE ENERGY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IF THOSE 2 PIECES PHASE...A NOTICEABLE STORM COULD TAKE SHAPE FOR
THE EAST COAST THIS SUNDAY.
ABOVE...DIVERTING OUR ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN MODEL AS WELL AS OTHERS FORECASTING A MAJOR WINTER STORM BY END OF NEXT WEEK.....COULD THAT BE "THE VALENTINES DAY" STORM THAT SOME WILL BE BLOWING UP SHORTLY ?
FINALLY....BELOW....A MAP INDICATING MOODS....YES....GOOD ONE OR BAD ONE. WELL BASED ON WEATHER CONDITIONS, THIS MAP
SHOWS MOST OF THE NATION SHOULD BE A GOOD FRAME OF MIND TODAY. DEBATING ABOUT ASKING THE BOSS FOR A RAISE ? TODAY MAY BE THE DAY. GOOD LUCK.....LATER.
ALSO: SKIERS......HERE'S THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAP.
ONE OF THE TOUGHEST PATTERNS WHEN A RAIN/SNOW LINE IS INVOLVED. MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST GETS WALLOPED AGAIN AS MOSTLY SNOW WILL FALL FROM NORTHERN N.J. THRU INLAND CONN. ON NORTH. 4-8" IN THESE AREAS...... WITH 8-12" FROM ALBANY TO
MAINE. NY METRO AREA 3"-6"...AS WITH LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH...HEAVIER AMOUNTS NORTH. THIS STORM
MOVES OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT...REFREEZING AGAIN. THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY QUIET. BELOW...CURRENT MAP. IF THAT LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS QUICKER AND MOVES
NORTHEAST....MORE IN THE WAY OF ICE AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST TODAY. IT'S A WAIT AND WATCH GAME.
ABOVE: LARGE AREA OF BLUE/GREEN IS THE CURRENT STORM. NOTICE AND SWIRL OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: THAT'S ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN JET. NOW NOTICE THE AREA OF BLUE-YELLOW-GREEN
PUSHING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA: ENERGY MOVING AROUND POLAR VORTEX. IF THESE 2 PHASE...THEN THE POTENTIAL STORM FOR SUNDAY IS A BIG ONE, IF THEY DO NOT...THEN IT WILL BE
AN AVERAGE SNOWSTORM FOR NORTHEAST.
ABOVE MAP IS AT 500 MB - FOR THIS SUNDAY AND FROM THE JAPAN MODEL. I LIKE THE WAY THIS MODEL IS HANDLING THE PATTERN. SEE THE ENERGY IN PINK ? THAT SHOULD PRODUCE AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER THE CAROLINAS COASTLINE WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. IF THIS IS CORRECT...HEAVY SNOW IS A GOOD BET
FOR NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. YOU NEED TO GIVE THE MODELS 48 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT TO REALLY GRAB IT...SO I THINK WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE A GOOD CALL FRIDAY. BE SAFE EVERYONE...LATER.
STORM NO. 1 - BELTED THE NORTHEAST YESTERDAY AND BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6" FOR NY METRO AND SOUTHERN CONN/ L.I. WITH MANY PLACES GETTING 6-8"...AND SOME SPOTS UP TO 9". THAT'S GONE. STORM # 2....YOU CAN SEE ON SATELLITE BELOW THRU OHIO VALLEY (BLUE). IT WILL SPLIT INTO 2...AND THAT MAKES FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR MAJOR CITIES OF NY AND PHL. CHICAGO GETS 5-6" OUT OF THIS..NEW ENGLAND GETS 6"-12"....NYC.....LONG ISLAND.....2"-4" - MORE IF CHANGE TO RAIN IS SMALL......LESS IF CHANGE TO RAIN IS LARGER.
INLAND NJ - LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO SOUTHERN CONN...EASILY
ANOTHER 6" OR SO WITH ICE. THIS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY ROUGHER THAN STORM NO. 1....STARTING LATE TONIGHT ....ENDING
ABOVE....MAP FOR WEDNESDAY. YOU CAN SEE THE SPLIT SYSTEM...ONE NEAR PITTSBURGH, PA...OTHER OFF DELAWARE...AND THE RAIN SNOW LINE (PURPLE) CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN N.J.
THRU SO. CONN. SYSTEM NO. 3 IS ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES.
ABOVE...GFS MODEL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWS A RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW OFF THE COAST WITH SNOW COVERING THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THIS ONE. AS ONE THE EXPERTS SAID FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAID.....THIS COULD BE A ROBUST STORM OR NEXT TO NOTHING..... UNDECIDED....YES ! BEFORE I SHOW MAP DEPICTED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. FOR SUNDAY....WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS BANKING ON A STORM.....I WILL TELL YOU THAT I STILL THINK THIS WILL BECOME A CLASSIC NOR'EASTER AND I WOULD BANK ON HEAVY SNOW HITTING MID ATLANTIC - NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MODELS WILL COME AROUND TO THIS THINKING BY LATE WEEK. WE ....AS FORECASTERS....HAVE TO REMEMBER...THAT THESE MODELS OFF "GUIDANCE"....THEY ARE NOT THE WEATHER BIBLE.
WE TAKE OUR KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE AND APPLY IT TO WHAT WE SEE. SOMETIMES IT WORKS...OTHER TIMES IT DOES NOT. TRUTHFULLY...I HOPE I AM DEAD WRONG BECAUSE ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. BELOW..PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP YOU POSTED...BE CAREFUL TNTE AND WEDNESDAY. LATER.
SOMETIMES I JUST STAY WITH THE GUT. I THOUGHT LAST WEEK THAT THERE COULD BE A LOW RIDING UP THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY BUT DROPPED THE IDEA AS COMPUTER MODELS WERE AGAINST IT. ANYHOW...PENNSYLVANIA...NJ...NYC...L.I. AND SOUTHERN CT...WILL SEE WET SNOW TODAY...AVERAGING 3"-6"...SOME SPOTS A
LITTLE HIGHER. HEADING NORTH...1-3" WHEN YOU GET TO POUGHKEEPSIE...AND NOTHING AT ALBANY. IT'S OUT OF HERE BY LATE DAY OR EVENING. BELOW...MAP SHOWING THE PEST.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CLEARLY SHOWS THE TRILOGY I AM TALKING ABOUT. 1) TODAY OVER THE EAST COAST 2) MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...TO GET US TUESDAY NITE/ WED...3) OFF GULF OF ALASKA LIKELY TO GET TO EAST COAST LATE WEEKEND.
ABOVE...AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY'S STORM. MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GET SNOW...FROZEN MIX WITH SOUTHERN N.E.....THEN RAIN FROM NYC ON SOUTH. ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BELOW...YOU WILL FIND THE MAP DEPICTING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. FOR THIS WEEKEND.
INDEED....ALREADY ON THE HEAVY SIDE. IT WILL TAKE MODELS
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO CATCH THE CULPRIT OFF THE WEST COAST AND THEN DETAILS WILL GET BETTER. AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF THE GAME...IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL NOR'EASTER TO ME...SO WE SHALL SEE. MEANWHILE...CAN'T SAY I DIDN'T WARN YOU LAST WEEK TO TRY AND TAKE A WEEK OR TWO IN THE BAHAMAS. LATER.
The models are STILL having trouble predicting where these storms are moving. It has a better handle on Monday's snow:
Another change has it moving even closer to us by just 20-30 miles. Again this seems like very little, but it increases the amount of snow from prior estimates of 2-3” to 3-4” with a slightly earlier start time (11PM vs 1AM). More on that below.
Now the bigger news: the models are still confused about Tuesday night/Wednesday's storm. It keeps shifting it north and south on every run by 10-20 miles. While this may not seem much it means all the difference because of how close the NY metro area is to the freezing point. It's slowly been wiggling south (around 40 miles now).
The good news? That means slightly less precip. The bad news? It's worse: it means that instead of all rain, there's a good chance of it mixing with freezing rain sleet and snow in the morning and possibly into noon (Westchester could see only snow/f.rain, southern CT mixed precip, northern CT and up all snow).
Again we were 96 hours away from this happening during yesterday's runs and we're still another 70 hours to go so anything is still on the table with the freezing line so close and the tipping points still unstable. Models show that upper air temps (850-500mb) over the NY metro area during the day will be 32-34° which will dispense a mix of rain and snow, BUT they're showing temperatures closer to the surface (1000-850mb) colder at 30-32° bringing the chance for sleet and worse off, a chance of freezing rain especially in the morning.
Have I mentioned how much of a headache it is to decipher all this data and make forecasts only to have all the data constantly shift around?
Here's the latest rundown:
Sunday night into Monday:
11PM-2AM – 38° → 36° - 20% rain showers
2AM-7AM – 36° → 34° - 30% mix of rain and snow showers (slush on roads)
7AM-11AM – 34° → 32° - 70% snow showers (1-2” acc, some freezing on roads from prior rain)
11AM-5PM – 32-33° - 60% snow showers (another 1-2” acc)
5PM-8PM – 32° → 30° - snow flurries taper off (trace)
Temperature will be slowly dropping throughout the night from 46° to 34° at sunrise, then will remain at only 32-33° for the day. 11PM will be RAIN SHOWERS (20%POP) any precip between 2AM and 7AM will be a mix of RAIN(30%)/SNOW(30%) (trace accumulations causing snow on roads) after that may will be all SNOW (70%POP) which will have our 2-4” for the day.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night:6PM – 36° - MIXED – earliest chance of anything dropping
9PM-12AM – 35° → 33° - 30% MIXED – picks up (trace acc)
12AM-5AM – 32-33° - 50% mix of RAIN and SNOW showers (<.10” liquid, slush roads)
5AM-8AM – 32° - 70% FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET (TRACE BUT CAN FORM ICE)
8AM → – 32-35° - 80% MIX OF RAIN and possible SLEET, can be heavy at times
6PM – 34° - 20% RAIN tapers off
Only a few degrees cooler means that we'll be seeing a mixed bag of rain snow sleet and freezing rain. We'll have to see how this plays out over the next few models run.
Sunny and cooler, NO PRECIP. Temps will be at or just below the freezing mark.
Once again as stated yesterday: of course with all this new data and the complicated nature of this system, these forecasts are subject to change but this is the best we can do at the moment to interpret what these upcoming systems will drop on us.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.