Have a nice weekend...be safe...see you next month.
Satellite shows a storm just off east coast which will fringe Cape Cod. Storm moving into west coast will be the next big storm for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Map above valid for Saturday evening. Storms in West will consolidate and move toward Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. It will affect the Primary in Midwest...may produce severe weather in south and heavy snow to the North and West of it's track.
Map above shows 7 day precipitation amounts while map below shows the average upper air flow for next week. That flow is just about zonal which means close to seasonable temps for most.
Have a nice weekend...be safe...see you next month.
A clipper low is moving through The Great Lakes with some snow there. Next storm moving into the NW....but it will become complex before consolidating into a big storm for center nation on Ground Hog's Day.
Rain from the Carolinas to Florida today. Snowshowers and wind over the Great Lakes. Rain and snow for Northwest.
Expended high temperatures for next Wednesday. Great Lakes storm bring mild east...colder west. Below...how temperatures will average through Feb. 4.
Early morning temperatures........not bad for late January.
Weather map for today showing front in the east.....snow in
Above...Euro and GFS - next Tuesday. Storm in SOuthern Plains will head to Great Lakes....will be the big news next week as the month of Feb. begins. Will the ground hog see his shadow...... probably not. Be safe
You can easily see on this picture the energy associated with the advancing storm now in Alabama. Below...our satellite radar overlay which continues to show convection and that's a sign that this storm will be a classic.
The following 2 maps are surface maps: 1 - Present.....2 - Saturday night as the storm heads up along the Mid Atlantic Coast.
Below...is the 500 MB flow (20,000 ft) for Saturday night. It shows the upper low to be closed off...near N.Carolina coast.
This should slow the storm but it will occlude. Somewhere
north of the storm will be heavier banding...and that's where
2-3" of snow could fall per hour.
Below...the green and yellow indicate the risk of severe weather today.
Below...maps representing total snowfall predicted by these models in this order: GFS - Canadian - Euro. Euro is once again leading the pack....now giving New York Metro Area around 15" of snow. Not ready to believe that until tomorrow at this time. Be safe....more on storm through the day.
Below are the total snowfall predictions by The Canadian Model then the GFS.
The energy that will be causing this storm is now moving across The Rockies. Now that models see it..there will be more data to base the forecast on...and it should only get better from here as far as forecast accuracy is concerned. Below in the amounts of
precipitation expected with this storm. On the average...10" of snow to every inch of rain......so begin calculating for your region.....unless you accept the computer model forecasts above.
Map for this evening shows the storm moving through the Plains. Cold air in place over the East.
Below....the projection of most of our models for Saturday with focus on storm on East Coast. As you can see...most of them are in the same ballpark. Biggest problem is determining how far north the heavy snow travels into New England. Back in
1996 and 2010 - those storms managed to bring heavy snow
to Southern Half of New England. We shall see.
Below....using the UKMET to show what the average upper air (500 Mb) pattern will look like this weekend.
Lastly....how will daytime temperatures average through Jan. 25th ? More on this coming storm through the day. Be safe.
Thois western satellite shows 2 disturbances ready to hit the west coast and it is the first one that should bend the jet stream and result in a major winter storm for the Eastern States from Friday into the weekend. Since there are 2 systems out there...models have to see them before they can accurately take them and move them along...and this leads us to think that there may be more changes in the evolution of this storm in the next few days.
Current map shows cold high pressure in the east. "The Head Scout" in Mississippi Valley will head east and fall apart as trhe biggest storm along the west coast organizes. Below...amounts of precip. expected with eastern storm. 2" cover the Eastern corridor....and if all snow...2 feet ? Sounds a bit high at this time.
Above...snowfall totals projected first by Canadian, then GFS..lastly The Euro. Below...where the various models show
the storm on Saturday.
Finally...a look at one of the suites of the Ensembles....various computers show their projection for Saturday. Be safe.
Enhanced satellite shows jet stream diving down the Plains...across the Gulf States and then up toward the Carolinas. This flow will basically remain through the week and when the storm out west comes east....a big winter storm is possible for places along the coast that have not seen a snowfall yet this winter. Places like Northern New England may
escape....but places like Delaware may not.
These are actual early morning temperatures.....notice freezing down to Texas and Louisiana. Below.....the various models on Friday's potential winter storm for the East Coast. The only model that is out to east....is the UKMET.
The model below is The Japan Model...it is trying to keep the storm just inland producing a wintry mix across the coastal
areas...nevertheless...a big storm by the Japan.
Below....total snowfall predicted by first: GFS....second The Euro. Both models give places like NYC over 1 ft. over snow...with the Euro sporting 20" +. We'll continue to track this and keep you posted. Stay safe.
Hurricane Alex near The Azores with 75 mph winds is a very unusual event for this time of year...nevertheless it is a hurricane and will head toward Greenland and then turn left before making a landfall in Nova Scotia Canada. Below is the expected track.
Storm in Gulf moves up the coast bringing mainly rain to
Northeast late tonight into Saturday. Storm in West slides to
south and brings threat of severe weather to Southeast on Sunday.
Above...map for Saturday evening....showing new storm in
Gulf of Mexico.....winds and colder weather from Gt. Lks to Northeast....new storm coming out of the Rockies.
Daytime temperatures for Monday.......bundle up. Below....7 day expected precipitation totals.
Satellite/radar shows clouds and wet weather for So. Florida.
Flurries from the Northeast westward through the Great Lakes.
Snow in Northern Rockies as the next storm heads east to
bring mainly rain to the East this weekend.
Map valid for this evening. Storm in upper Midwest moving east..as low in Gulf of Mexico heads up east coast. System in
Pacific NW...will head southeast and bring a storm threat
to deep south later this weekend.
Canadian model showing cold air from Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic for early next week.
Canadian model showing storms on both coasts for next weekend. Below...GFS Model for same time.
Below...map showing how temperatures will average through Jan. 27th......good news for most of the nation. Be safe.
Map above is for this evening. Lake effect snows for the Great Lakes....quite normal. Fair - dry - chilly in the south. Next winter storms in the west heads east to bring rain..wind...snow and ice to the East Friday night into Saturday. Below...satellite shows the cold aier plunging south with the jet stream and the makings of our new storm in the west..
Below...early morning temperatures.....cold most places.
Map below is how the long range group at NOAA see the storm for this Saturday for The East. Quite similar to the models.
Below....The GFS Model of Saturday's predicted storm. Just like the Euro....these models show an intense storm but are keeping it far enough offshore so that they do not produce heavy amounts of precip. This could be in big error ....thus parts of New England could wind up with their first major winter storm of the season.
The Canadian model below is a better fit to the upper air and I think we will see other models leaning toward this pattern.
More storms to follow...we'll talk about that tomorrow. Be safe.
A low in Great Lakes is bringing snowshowers there and then to The Northeast today as cold arctic air pushes down in back of it. Stalled front of so.Florida will bring more rain there. Below...map showing temperatures early this morning...finally looking and feeling more like January- nation-wide.
Below...map which shows where weather systems will be
this evening. You can see the clipper low moving off the East Coast....while a new storm organizes out west and moves to
the East Coast this weekend.
Below...the various models and their thinking for east coast storm this weekend. Looks like the Northern Half of New England will finally get some heavy snow out of this. That system will be followed by more cold air next week.
Be safe all.
Satellite shows weekend storm in the Atlantic. Clipper low in Plains will head east and bring some snow to Northeast
Tuesday before arctic air spill in and dominate much of the Nation by mid week. System on west coast will affect east coast this weekend.
Can you find the arctic air this morning ? Below...the 8 - 14 day outlook by NWS......which takes us thru Jan. 24th. Much of the Nation below normal in temperature.
Below...The Canadian and Euro Models are the most intense
with the next arctic air mass headed eastward by this time next week. Be safe.
Satellite shows Part 1 of California Storm in Midwest with mainly rain....to affect east coast this weekend. Part 2 over the Southwest to bring some snow next week.
Map above is for Saturday evening. The California storm is over the Mid Mississippi Valley bringing rain to The East with some snow on the backedge over the Midwest. Very cold air over Plains will make the football game in Minnesota bone chilling.
Rain and snow at west will affect the rest of the Nation next week when more in the way of winter will be visible.
Below...models and how together they are for next Wednesday...when arctic air moves east and produces some snow for some of the bigger cities east.
Bands of moisture will continue to move from west to east affecting the Nation right into next week. While very cold air will settle down into Upper Midwest.....it should be confined to central U.S. for now.
Map above for this evening. Sprawled out low in south will bring a large area of precipitation to everywhere but the Eastern Third. They will get their chance this weekend. Storms yesterday brought flooding to California...with Malibu Hills clocking a 64 mph wind.
Below...3 models showing the next intrusion of cold air for
next weekend...with the Canadian the most intense and the Euro the weakest. Be safe.
System 1 - Florida - bringing heavy rain there today.
System 2 - Plains...more rain - reach the East Saturday.
System 3 - Southwest - rain and snow...reaches the East SUnday.
Early morning temperatures show the coldest air over New England where sub zero readings are in progress. Below...map showing how much rain will fall this coming weekend.
Above Canadian model for Sunday night. It was the only model depicting a storm for Monday...which was going to be a coastal and indicating snow for some places. Now...it has picked up the speed and moved the storm inland with mainly rain. Sorry - snow lovers. Be safe.
Map above shows the 4am temperatures nation-wide. Notice the negative numbers now in New England. Below - satellite - radar showing rain hitting the west coast and they are in for a spell of wet weather this week....California needs it.
Below...weather map for this evening. All of the rain and snow out west....that will head east and reach the east coast this weekend.
Below....one of the only models indicating a storm for the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic this coming Monday. All other models say "No". We'll keep tabs on this and see you turns
out right. Be safe.
First....courtesy of The National Weather Service in NYC.....table above shows how warm it was in the Metro Area in December. Records like this were broken in many place in the East.
Below....satellite picture showing the jet stream dropping south through the Eastern Half of the Nation enabling arctic air to spill south.
Below.....actual early morning temperatures: notice how the cold air now covers most of the Nation........it is January..
Below...map valid for this evening. All of the wet/white weather out west and will come east by not until end of the week and the weekend.
Below...some of the models and how they are handling weather by this weekend in the east. Most agree that one storm goes to Great Lakes and another moves up along the Mid & North Atlantic coasts. There will be a band of wintry mix with the coastal low this weekend....more on that later. For now...bundle up.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.