NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FINALLY...BY THE WEEKEND...NEXT WEEKEND....A STORM SHOULD FORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW..BUT AGAIN...WILL CARRY HEAVY PRECIP. SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE A NICE - SAFE WEEKEND.
MILD WEATHER FOR SUPERBOWL SUNDAY...AS TEMPS HEAD FOR 50 OR JUST ABOVE..AND NOTHING MORE THAN A RAIN SHOWER DURING THE GAME. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER DURING THE GAME. KICK OFF TEMPS...40-45....FALLING BACK THRU 30S SLOWLY. AS FOR "THE" GROUND HOG: HARD FOR HIM NOT TO SEE HIS SHADOW WITH ALL THE TV LIGHTS...BUT HE SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO SEE HIS SHADOW SINCE IT WILL BE CLOUDY...MEANING SPRING IS AROUND THE CORNER. WELL...DON'T THINK THAT'S RIGHT....LOTS OF WINTER AHEAD.
ABOVE...YOU CAN SEE THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM MOVING IN ACROSS SO. CALIFORNIA...SOMETHING MISSING ALL THIS MONTH. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL POWER BIGGER STORMS IN TERMS OF PRECIP....AND WHEN COMBINING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM..STAGE IS SET FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST NEXT WEEK AND THEREAFTER. BELOW...CURRENT SURFACE MAP.
BELOW..MAP FOR SATURDAY. STORM IN MIDWEST WILL BRING 6" + TO PLACES LIKE CHICAGO.....AND HEAD UP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUCH A PATTERN BRINGS MILDER WEATHER EAST.
BELOW: MAP FOR NEXT WEDNEDAY. TYPICAL HAND-OFF PATTERN. PRIMARY LOW MOVES INTO OHIO VALLEY...SECONDARY ALONG COAST. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR BIG CITIES FROM BOSTON TO DCA....STARTING AS SLEET OR FR. RAIN. FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW ENGLAND...SNOW GOES TO ICE...AND A SERIOUS ICE STORM MAY RESULT IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FINALLY...BY THE WEEKEND...NEXT WEEKEND....A STORM SHOULD FORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW..BUT AGAIN...WILL CARRY HEAVY PRECIP. SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE A NICE - SAFE WEEKEND.
NOTICE THE STREAM OF MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL WEST COAST. THIS SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL BE CAUSING BIG TROUBLE NEXT WEEK....WHICH I WILL GET INTO SHORTLY. THE DARK BLUE IN MID NATION WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADING THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND. SNOW AND WINTRY MIX FROM GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...BUT
ONLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND FOR NYC ON SOUTH.
NOTICE THE CLOUDS AND GREEN OVER FLORIDA....NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THERE WILL BE ANYTHING BUT NICE. STORM IN NEVADA IS THE ONE THAT HITS NORTHEAST OVER WEEKEND AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
THIS IS THE GFS MODEL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. THEY HAVE STORM OVER NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE. THIS MOISTURE RICH STORM WILL HEAD IN THAT DIRECTION BUT A COASTAL LOW WILL ALMOST DEFINITELY FORM...COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. THE BIG CITIES FROM DCA TO BOSTON WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW..ICE AND THEN A CHANGE TO RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW ON TAIL END. A COMPLETE MESS. FURTHER NORTH...ALL SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WILL MANY PLACES CHAULKING UP A FOOT.
BEHIND IT...ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS SLIDING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. SEE THE STORM IN GULF OF ALASKA...THAT'S ON THE AGENDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEXT WEDNEDAY'S STORM WILL LEAVE A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIP FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA WILL GET OVER 1" LIQUID...WHERE IT IS COLD ENOUGH..THAT TRANSLATES TO 10" OR MORE...AND THAT COULD INCLUDE CHICAGO...DETROIT...ALBANY....ETC. NOW FOR SOME GOOD NEWS....DON'T KNOW IF IT IS BECAUSE OF THE COLD...BUT THE LATEST FLU REPORT SHOWED QUITE A DROP NATION-WIDE. SEE BELOW.
BELOW...FIRST OUR SATELLITE PICTURE WHICH SHOWS THE OFFSHORE WINTER STORM - EAST COAST...WITH SNOW JUST MAKING IT TO NYC. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DIVING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS SATURDAY FOR THE EAST. BELOW THAT....THE CURRENT MAP SHOWING THE EAST COAST WINTER STORM...AND THE NEW ONE HEADING IN TO THE WEST.
BELOW...MAP FOR SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SHOULD BRING IN DRY AIR FOR THE BIG GAME. LOW PRESSURE ON
SOUTH END OF FRONT COULD BE A PROBLEM. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO GIVE SOME SNOW TO
MID ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. IF IT MOVES FASTER...THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO SUNDAY NITE. SO ALL IS NOT QUIET YET ON THE WEATHER FRONT. IN ANY EVENT..ARCTIC AIR TAKES A BREAK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE NEXT STORM SHOULD
BRING RAIN TO THE COAST...SNOW INLAND - NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER AND YET ANOTHER STORM NEXT WEEKEND. BET YOU CAN'T WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE GROUND HOG SAYS THIS SUNDAY ? LATER.
EARLY A.M. SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALTHOUGH THE STORM WILL BE OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVY SNOW FROM COASTAL CAROLINA TO SE VA., TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA. THOSE PLACES WILL GET 4-8". SOUTHERN N.J. COULD SEE 4"...WHILE LONG ISLAND WILL GET 1"-4"....INCLUDING SE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ALL OF THIS HAPPENING LATER TODAY AND TNTE.
THE MAP ABOVE SHOWS THIS STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT THE VEIL OF SNOW HUGS THE COAST. TRICKY...SOMETIMES COASTAL AREAS CAN GET ALOT MORE THAN WE ARE FORECASTING. SEE THE MESS OUT WEST...THAT'S WEATHER FOR THE EAST LATE SATURDAY..SATURDAY NITE...HOPEFULLY GONE BY SUPERBOWL.
THESE ARE PROJECTED HIGHS FOR SUPERBOWL SUNDAY. MID 30S FOR NEW JERSEY. QUESTION TODAY.....IS: WILL THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM KICK OUT EARLY ALLOWING ANY CLEAN UP..TO TAKE PLACE.....OR WILL THERE BE A SECOND LOW FORMING ON FRONT TO
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. STAY TUNED.
SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS THE NEXT COLD FRONT HEADED EAST.
COLD AIR RETURNS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THRU MID WEEK. NOTICE THE SWIRL COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME THAT WE HAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.
COULD THAT SPARK AN EAST COAST STORM LATE THIS WEEK...AND COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE TO WATCH ?
ABOVE....TODAY'S MAP. COLD FRONT SWINGING OFF EAST COAST...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER PLAINS. LOW IN ROCKIES WILL HEAD EAST AND WILL RESULT IN AN OFFSHORE LOW...THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO COASTAL SECTIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAP FOR SUPERBOWL SUNDAY. IT WOULD INDICATE FAIR..CHILLY WEATHER. NO COMMENT.
THIS IS THE GFS MODEL FOR SUPERBOWL SUNDAY...INDICATING FAIR AND COLD WEATHER. NO COMMENT. LATER.
The Jet Stream will be making an appearance this week, driving from Alberta, Canada all the way through the US into the mid-Atlantic seaboard.
The areas hardest hit will be the Dakotas with 40MPH sustained winds and 60MPH gusts, then gradually getting weaker as it dives south. By gradual I mean that we'll still see 40MPH gusts in OK and St. Louis, even seeing up to 40MPH in New England.
Now for the wintry weather. Tomorrow for the NY metro area we'll only see a chance of a few scattered snow showers pass through. It will be much like yesterday only shorter lived. The difference though is that we'll also be just above the freezing mark so the snow will be denser. Once that all passes, it'll be back to very cold temperatures well below the averages of 39/27 for this time of the year.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be approaching 20° for the highs and into the lower teens and upper single digits respectively for the lows. We'll have to wait until Thursday before seeing milder weather and Friday before we get back near seasonal temps.
Finally the wild weather. This is what we'll see on Wednesday: a HUGE band of precip that will just be missing us to the south bringing ice, yes ICE into the south and a good amount of snow all the way down into Florida. This large band will form over the next few days from the Deep South and will continue to miss us throughout the week but nevertheless will create some very turbulent and windy weather for those in its path. I'm just amazed at how far it will stretch across the nation, and how there's a possibility of widespread possible thunderstorms in the southern half of it for this time of year.
The real wild weather though is something coming up next week, two possible snowstorms arriving next Monday/Tuesday as well as another huge one on Friday. Take a look for yourself below
We'll keep an eye on these as the week goes on. Hopefully the models are just trying to give us something exciting to look at after this quiet week.
At this point, most of us have adjusted to the very cold air. The look of the upper atmosphere continues to remain the same. Ridging in the West, a deep trough in the East as it can be seen with the Infrared imagery of the country this afternoon.
temperatures will be dipping back down into the negatives for areas to the North Central into early next week as yet another arctic front passes though will this never-ending trough.
Sunday continues to show a clipper move in from Canada, providing the cold air into next week. Chicago will get another round of snow with light accumulations but out towards NY, the impact is still a bit less troublesome. Snow could be quite scattered but as of right now, the system appears to be north enough as it passes into the state that New York City could receive some light snow showers but nothing beyond that.
LABEL THE AIR MASSES WHATEVER...END RESULT....15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE AGAIN NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS OF MODERATION BY LATE NEXT WEEK...UNTIL THEN...FRIGID.
BELOW...SATELLITE PICTURESHOWS NEXT FRONT DIVING DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND WINDS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.
BELOW- MAP SHOWING TEMPERATURES FOR THIS COMING TUESDAY.
NORTHEAST WILL SEE 1"-3" OF SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE OVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLIPPER GOING THROUGH GREAT LAKES SHOULD NOT FORM INTO A MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. STILL SOME THOUGHT ABOUT A SECOND COASTAL STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL OPT TO SAY THAT IT MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST BUT NO WHERE ELSE. NO DEFINED CALL ON SUPERBOWL SUNDAY BUT IF MODELS ARE ONTO A TREND..IT WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW.....WE'LL SEE. HAVE A NICE WEEKEND...KEEP WARM AND SAFE.
DON'T SEE THE NATIONAL PICTURE CHANGING MUCH INTO NEXT WEEK....WHERE IT'S COLD..IT STAYS COLD...WHERE IT'S DRY IT STAYS DRY. THE PARADE OF CLIPPER LOWS FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE. IF THE MODELS ARE RIGHT AND THE POLAR VORTEX CHANGES IT'S ORIENTATION...THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER GOES UP THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IF THEY ARE WRONG ..THEN THE NORTHEAST GETS MORE SNOW MONDAY.
YOU CAN SEE BY THIS SATELLITE THAT THE JET STREAM COMES DOWN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THRU THE U.S. ROCKIES...TURNS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THEN UP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW WILL TAKE THE CLIPPER TO MID ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
ABOVE...TODAY'S WEATHER MAP. WEAK CLIPPER IN PENNSYLVANIA MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES TO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ABOVE...SUNDAY'S WEATHER MAP. AGREE....THE CLIPPER WILL BE NEAR CHICAGO. QUESTION ? DOES IT GO FROM CHICAGO TO ALBANY...AND SPARE THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR ANOTHER SNOW OR DOES IT GO FROM CHICAGO TO OFF NEW JERSEY AND THREATEN THAT AREA WITH MORE SNOW MONDAY ? MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL GO NORTH...BUT STAY TUNED. LATER.
ARCTIC COLD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BIG SNOWSTORM MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NOW AFTER DROPPING 8"-14" OF SNOW. FROM THIS POINT ONWARD....FRONTS AND CLIPPERS WILL BE ZIPPING BY AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HAVE BOUTS OF SNOW AND SNOWSHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK. WEST...STILL DRY AND MILDER.
BELOW....SATELLITE PIX SHOWING THE BIG EAST COAST STORM MOVING OUT.
MAP BELOW - SHOWS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY...BUT A FEW INCHES.
FYI - GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...SUPERBOWL. INDICATION - COLD, WIND, SNOWSHOWERS. BELIEVE THAT....I HAVE A BRIDGE FOR SALE IN ARIZONA. TIMING IS ALWAYS AN ISSUE..AND THE STORM GFS IS DEPICTING ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SUPERBOWL..COULD EASILY WIND UP RIGHT ON SUNDAY. BELOW THAT...A MAP SHOWING HOW TEMPERATURES DEPART FROM NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAN THE DOG SLEDS !
Low pressure over Tennessee Valley will hop off the mid Atlantic coast tonight and bring near blizzard conditions from mid Atlantic to southern New England. 6"-10" from Boston to Washington/Baltimore...with as much as 15" from New Jersey shore thru Long Island and The Cape.
From Appalachians into southern New England...3"-6". Below...you can see the amounts of liquid expected ( normally 10" of snow for each 1"...but due to cold air...that will be either 15 to 1 or 20 to 1. ) Following chart shows probability of 8" or more.....followed by what the weather map will look like this evening.
The storm exits on Wednesday...and very cold air continues from The Plains to The East Coast. From time to time...clippers will bring
bouts of snow. This will easily be one of the roughest...longest periods of winter thus far for many places. Below...will attempt an animated radar loop....let's hope it works. If it doesn't...you'll find our satellite below that. Stay safe.
LOTS OF SURPRISES OVERNIGHT AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE UPPER JET AND ALLOWED A SURFACE LOW TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE RAISING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MAJOR CITIES FROM WASHING TO BOSTON TUESDAY/ TUES. NITE. NOT SURE I BUY IT TOTALLY...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS AFTERNOON'S RUN OF MODELS...AND MAKE SURE THIS WASN'T A SPIKE. IN ANY EVENT..THE COLD IS ON THE WAY..AND ONCE HERE WILL STAY...AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. FIRST...SATELLITE PICTURE. SEE THE BLUE STREAK FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO IOWA....THAT'S THE LOW THAT COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
NEXT 3 MAPS: FIRST....WHAT THE MAP WILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY...COASTAL LOW WITH SNOW FOR THE BIG CITIES: SECOND: AMOUNTS OF LIQUID: ABOUT .25" TO .50" BUT BECAUSE IT WILL BE SO COLD...THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MORE THAN 4". LAST....PROBABILITY OF 4" OR MORE OF SNOW....NOTICE THE PROB. GETS HIGHER CLOSER TO NYC AND SO. NEW ENGLAND.
TAKE A LOOK AT EURO FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HEADED FOR NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THAT IS FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN MODELS FOR THIS COMING SUNDAY...SHOWING BUT ANOTHER LOW HEADED EAST. ALL WITH COLD - COLD AIR IN PLACE.
LASTLY...TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS. EXPECTED TO THIS WED...AND NEXT SUNDAY. BE SAFE AND STAY WARM. LATER.
First off before I get into this blog post, the upcoming cold is NOT caused by the Polar Vortex. I'll explain that shortly.
For the NY Metro area the average lows are around 24° for this time of year and come Tuesday the HIGH will be just that. Granted those of us who had the misfortune of having to be outside during the shift of the Polar Vortex when highs were in the teens and lows in the single digits, we'll still be feeling the chill. The cause? An Alberta Clipper passing through that is currently crossing the US border as we speak (as shown below). Just keep in mind when looking at it that the Low that's north of the Great Lakes isn't what we're keeping an eye on, it's the Low that's in Saskatchewan, or the Canadian Provence just above Eastern Montana if you're not sure which one that is.
Now it's time to clear up the misconceptions. This Alberta Clipper is a normally occurring weather phenomenon that we see during the colder months. The Alberta part is because the cold air we see comes from the Canadian Province of Alberta (also includes air from BC and Yukon as well), and the Clipper means it is fast moving and has a low pressure system.
If you take a look at the surface map I posted above and at the picture below of Tuesday night, you'll see how that low pressure system I pointed out will pass through and end up just east of the NY Metro area, while also driving down the colder air well into the Deep South (represented by those blue lines).
This isn't the shift of the Polar Vortex. Notice I said shift of the Polar Vortex, not "this is a Polar Vortex." The Polar Vortex is just the name of the colder air that sits at the south and north poles; it's the shift of it towards the US that caused the frigid temperatures two weeks ago. Without getting too deep into the terminology and talking about the Earth's convection cells (though feel free to look that up at your own leisure if you'd like), take a look at the pictures below to show what this is.
You know the lines of latitude on a globe? Think of it this way: they form a circle as they go around the Earth, and the Polar Vortex is normally centered on the pole itself. When it shifts, the circle literally moves and the center of that circle moved from the pole towards us. There's something else that can happen though. You've heard of the jet stream dipping down correct? Well that circle of the Polar Vortex is really a wobbly line represented by troughs and ridges (Pat always posts the Canadian models that show this). As you can see below, sometimes those get exaggerated and can pile up and then tip well south as shown below.
So brace for the colder temps come mid-week, and use what I just said to impress your friends and explain to them the real reason it's happening.
Low pressure centered near Illinois and the New England coast brought precipitation to their local regions today. Areas near NYC even experienced a bit of thundersnow and hail this morning. The visible satellite image from midday today shows the low pressure system in the Midwest and the cold front off the eastern coast associated with the rain and snow that is still falling in parts of New England.
The storm in the Midwest will become more stable as it moves eastward and becomes a weak shortwave. The chance for snow will be mainly off of the Great Lakes in the following days as well as in Northern New England.
The most of the country remains dry into next week when the next arctic wave takes control of the country. While it appears not to be as powerful as the 'Polar Vortex' that happened earlier this month, it will still be a time of very cold air through the week.
The GFS model output below of the surface layer for next Tuesday shows the southward flow of air into the US (the hashed lines) and how much of the country will be dry into midweek.
Areas in the North Central US may once again experience daily high temperatures struggling to reach 0°F. Whereas areas near NYC & Chicago will peak near 20°F midweek.
You do not have to be a meteorologist to see the jet stream come down from Alaska thru the Plains and turn up The Appalachians. The darker areas represent moisture...and since this flow is not tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic...moisture will be sparse...but the cold air will be plenty starting next week and lasting longer than any of us would like.
This map shows expected snowfall thru weekend. Most areas in and around the Great Lakes will see 2"-4"....not hard to take...but the cold and wind will be. Below...will show you to models for next Tuesday.
Canadian model wants to bring a snowevent to the East...while the European is offshore. Wasn't ready to buy into a snowstorm yesterday for Tuesday...and still am not.
Needless to say...models are in agreement....it gets COLD! We should enter into a pattern of more persistent cold..with the worst of it
coming last week of January leading up to SuperBowl. Much too early to say whether the predicted snowstorm for Superbowl comes to pass...but it certainly looks like it will be cold enough for penquins.
Lastly ...below...the discouraging map about flu reports. Looks like the healthiest state in the nation is Vermont....could that have something to do with skiing ? Have a nice - safe weekend...see you next week in
the frozen Tundra.
Satellite picture below....shows a giant pin-wheel in South Central
Canada.....the gear to transport one low after another down from
Alaska into The U.S. followed by chunks of arctic air. This pattern will stay thru next week and then the final week of January will be the
Grand Finale of the month when winter shows it's ugly side again.
By the way...the deep reddish-orange above is dry air. Below...is a map showing expected features by Saturday. Front in east will cause some snowshowers...otherwise next clipper low getting ready to come out of
Canada. That will be off the east coast Sunday with some flurries.
Over to The European Model....one of which has been consistent in showing very cold air for Eastern Half of the Nation by mid next week. Remember...the darker the "blues" the colder it is. I still feel that this will be just the tip of the iceberg and a more persistent cold wintry pattern will close out the month. Thinking of a winter vacation...I would try to get away by 25th (Jan). Later.
Satellite picture shows the jet stream moving down the plains and up thru The Great Lakes. One disturbance in Great Lakes will head east with little if any weather to worry about. See the bright colored area coming out of Canadian Rockies.....it's that energy that most are worried about for Saturday. Computer models say "nothing". The manual progs done by National Weather Service depict a very unorganized area of lows off Northeast coast for Saturday......we shall see.
Below...The Euro for late next week...still advertising big time cold for The East. I think that will happen...but again...how will that arrive ? Quiet or stormy.....stay tuned. Meanwhile...aside from some rain and snowshowers in The East and Great Lakes.....weather not changing much thru the weekend. Later.
Even though it will be growing colder...don't see another arctic assault until next week. Models are all over the place along the East coast. Even though at this time - not depicting any big storms...pattern is changeable and has to be watched thru this weekend. Rain departs East tnte.... snow heads across Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today.
Below...satellite picture showing rain - east - and snow Midwest.
Map below is a forecast map for Saturday. You can see the mess of
lows in The East....none of which look organized so precip there will be varied and not steady.
Below...a map depicting total amounts of precipitation to fall over the next 7 days....and as you can see...East is the target.
Below...you will find the European model for next week. Blue...indicates cold....and darker the blue...the colder the weather. Enough said. I think late January will be cold and we will have bouts of snow...but still leaning toward no big winter storms in East. Not storm-free...but no biggies. Can't say the same for The Southwest. It is there that storms will come east to begin the month of February. Later.
Satellite picture very clear depicts the jet stream flowing down the
Rockies and moving up thru the Great Lakes. This allows the cold air to be flowing in that area of The U.S. while the east can see an ejection of moisture and milder air coming out of the Gulf Of Mexico. The jet stream heads east...so it will be turning colder in the east this week...but right now..nothing extreme like last week. Most of the storms may and should stay just offshore....so aside from some light bouts of precip. this week...Eastern Half of the Nation should not see severe winter weather.
Above...current map. Rain over lower Mississippi Valley heads northeast and affects the East tnte into Tuesday. Cold front over the
Upper Midwest may bring some rain and snowshowers later Wednesday and then a turn to colder weather. Below......first map shows how daytime temperatures will average over the next 7 days....blue mean cold..... red above normal. Below that....a map showing high temperatures expected for this coming Sunday....not too extreme for most part. So enjoy one of January's thaws. Later
Last Tuesday much of the US saw frigid record lows, from the negative 20's in the Northern Central Plains to the just below 0° temps in the Northeast. Yesterday though? Islip saw a record HIGH of 55° and many other spots saw similar records set. The same areas also saw record precip amounts as heavy band after band moved through bringing up to 2 inches of rain in some locations, up to 6 inches in parts of Vermont.
Heavy snow and winds are in the Northwest, and coming next week for the NY metro area there will be rain and possible snow in the morning from Monday night into Wednesday night. High temps will remain in the mid to upper 40's into the lower 50's towards the nation's capital, but the jet stream is slated to drop south come next weekend and we may see those lows dip into the single digits or lower come next Sunday.
Stay warm for now in this "Wintery" 50 degree weather.
After the ever so popular "polar vortex" started off 2014, the wacky weather trend continues with a spring-like rain and thunderstorm event for the Northeast this Saturday.
IR imagery shown above shows the country split into 3 sections... A trough to the Eastern US, a ridge in the Central US, and the next wave building in from the Pacific Northwest. Rain is pounding the eastern seaboard with rumbles of thunder reported throughout as well, a fairly uncommon sight at this time of year for the Northeast. The cloud tops extend high into the atmosphere and have plenty of water vapor inside them to continue delivering a very wet Saturday to the affected areas.
Meanwhile, the trough to the Northwest is bringing scattered rain showers along the water and snow in the states further inland.
The models are indecisive as to what to make of this system once it reaches the coast. Early indications were that a secondary low would get caught in the trough and bring the possibility of a snow event in the Northeast, but some models have backed off whereas others are keeping it a possibility. More answers will be figured out as the weekend finishes on Sunday with the ridge moving to the east bringing plenty of sun, comfortable temperatures for January, but breezy conditions.
Small blue area over Northeast is an area of very light snow and rain which will move through today. Large blue area in center nation...next weather maker that will come east and dump rain...mild and even some thunderstorms over the East this weekend. Some areas from Mid Atlantic to New England will get 1-2" of rain resulting in flooding...not a good thing for Ski Areas across New England...could be quite damaging.
Blue represents 1" of rain......brown....1.50"......light green.....2.00" and you can see that small area of light rain from Baltimore thru New Jersey into Conn. Most of this rain will fall from late Friday nite into Saturday night. Below...if the latest surface map: the system in the Plains is the one we are taking east and resulting in the above rainfall.
Latest European Model still wants to bring cold air this way next weekend. I'm not comfortable with the trend of this model. It has not been living up to its reputation.....so for now...we will consider it...but not bank on it. Hope you have a nice weekend.
We have already seen much warmer weather across the Nation during the overnight hours as the last of the arctic air continues from the upper Midwest into the Northeast. Milder weather will continue thru the weekend and into early next week. All of the action is out west as you can see on our satellite picture below.
Our next weather system..now west coast...moves east to give all of The East rain this weekend....and a good deal as well. Following that front...(map below for Saturday) you can see that there are no highs in the north...so the air will not be of polar or arctic origin...thus keeping it closer to normal Sunday and early next week. Below that chart is the map depicting amounts of precipitation for the weekend. Clearly 1" of rain up and down the East Coast....which could have been 10" of snow...but not this time.
Finally...the map below is The European Model depicting next weekend...so over 1 week away. The trend they are indicating is back to cold....as you see the blue's returning big time. Don't be too upset...I don't think that will be a long event...as the roller coaster winter will continue. Later.
Good news is that the arctic air will be taking a hike and a thaw will spread across much of the Nation thru the weekend and into early next week. The worst wintry weather will be found in the Northwest. Temps will respond to near or above normal...and with that will come rain
for much of the East this weekend. Below...current temp. map.
Above....expected temperatures for Thursday. Notice the lack of blue !
That's the cold air.....so area shrinking generously. A front will bring rain from west to east this weekend. Later next week...models show arctic air re-loading. Map below shows this cold air headed East ....which is next Thursday.
I don't see any big winter storms in the 5-7 day period...in fact...there will be some wintry mix situations.....otherwise I willing to bet that the next assault of winter will wait for month's end or February. Below...the current map indicated "flu". Not good...so please take care. Later.
Wind Chill Warnings have been posted for a good portion of the Eastern Half of the Nation and if you have to venture out of doors you must protest yourself. Frostbite can happen under these conditions in less than 15 minutes. Below...wind chills expected today....
Below...snowcover .....one of the reasons that these frigid air masses from Siberia do not modify when they get here.
Current map shows basically non-stormy weather but cold. The Great Lakes will have lake enhanced snow...some place getting over 2 ft.Below that chart...our satellite picture which clearly shows the distinct cold front off The East Coast. The Pacific Northwest will get their share of rain and snow this week...elsewhere...you will just need to keep warm. Later.
We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.