It's sort of a broken record lately, but what happened to the last 3 snowstorms slated to hit the NY metro area? They just missed us, just grazed us, just passed by to the side. Guess what? The models are looking to make the next one #4 on that list.
Now first off, we'll still see snow showers, but the 12+ inch counts seem to be a thing of the past. Both the GFS and UKMET (seen below, left and right respectively) have moved the Wednesday early AM low farther east meaning less snow for us.
Now first off, we'll still see snow showers, but the 12+ inch counts seem to be a thing of the past. Both the GFS and UKMET (seen below, left and right respectively) have moved the Wednesday early AM low farther east meaning less snow for us.
BUT (and this is the disclaimer we'll always mention in storms like this whose amounts can drastically change one way or the other depending on slight changes in positioning) once again the storm does not physically exist yet and won't until Monday morning when the clouds begin to clump together and then coalesce around a low, so the model uncertainty is still a big issue with it having to additionally guess how the precip itself will form. For now though it seems to be better for us with how much we have to deal with, well under the early scare for now. Below is a snapshot of Monday morning when we'll finally see the precip starting to fall over the Gulf (though with no visible center of low pressure yet).
As of now (again, very subject to change) NY metro area may only see 1" during Tuesday afternoon and maybe another 2" during the night (NW Connecticut 1-2", eastern LI totals as well as eastern CT and up into NH may be 3-5", but we're once again on the edge of the storm, and the models still have another 24 hours before they can pinpoint where it can go in a more accurate fashion. Pat will see the better models tomorrow morning when he updates you all again.
-Mike Merin
-Mike Merin