While Fall arrives around the same date each year, the weather doesn't always comply. This is the same for both the meteorological Fall (first of the month) as well as the seasonal Fall (22nd-23rd). However by sheer coincidence today weather-wise we actually are seeing a complete change in the seasonal weather as relative humidity will be dropping into the 40-50% range and temperatures dropping in similar fashion.
Again, there is a difference between a normal (astronomical) season and meteorological seasons. The normal Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter that many people know coincides with the movement of the Earth around the Sun and falls on the 21st, 22nd, or 23rd of the month depending on the year. It's different because of the extra quarter day that we experience every year, fixed by what we know as leap years and. During these normal seasons, the Summer and Winter solstices the Earth's axis faces the sun and either the northern or southern hemisphere's axis faces the Sun, and the Spring and Fall equinoxes they're perpendicular to the Sun.
While that has to do with cycles of solar body revolution, meteorological seasons deal with the cycle of annual temperature cycles, hence why they start 20-22 days earlier. However this has to do with global variations and as such may not actually coincide with regional average temperature cycles.
So which one should you follow? Personally I always go with the normal seasons as weather is always in flux and their deviations rarely coincide as well with the cyclical definitions. That and climate is changing so much that it may not be accurate any more.
While that has to do with cycles of solar body revolution, meteorological seasons deal with the cycle of annual temperature cycles, hence why they start 20-22 days earlier. However this has to do with global variations and as such may not actually coincide with regional average temperature cycles.
So which one should you follow? Personally I always go with the normal seasons as weather is always in flux and their deviations rarely coincide as well with the cyclical definitions. That and climate is changing so much that it may not be accurate any more.
The map above is a bit misleading as it will change dramatically to the east as the day goes on. Why? This:
That left-most cold front is the key in the temperature change. It will be making its way through the Northeast and the Atlantic Seaboard throughout the day. That being said, much of the center of the nation is still in the path of sunshine and will continue to see that as well throughout the week. In fact if you look across the entire US for the next 5 days and average out the chance of precip it would be a tiny 4% chance, cloud cover only reaching into the 20-30% range.
Finally a look at the current tropics. While the Atlantic has been very quiet this entire season with only 5 named storms and 4 of those hurricanes, the Pacific has been stealing the show with 17 named storms, 12 of those hurricanes and 8 of those being major hurricanes of category 3 or higher, 5 category 4 and the strongest Hurricane Marie a category 5 with 160 mph winds. In fact it's been so busy that at one point there were three hurricanes active at once, all within 2000 miles of one another.
Right now however we have Tropical Depression Polo, once a category 1 hurricane, that is moving offshore and slowly dissipating. Another storm though is currently south of Mexico and has a 60% chance of forming into a hurricane over the next 48 hours, and a 80% over the next 5 days. That one is slated to be named Hurricane Rachel once it intensifies.
The Climate Prediction Center did in fact call for a below normal season, and on average across the board there were predictions of 12 named storms, 6 of those hurricanes and 2-3 of those major. Right now we're just under halfway there for total storms and 2 away for both regular and major hurricanes.
The Pacific was of course higher for the average of predictions with 15 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes and 3 of those major. Again right now we're WELL above that average so that deserves a look at the record high activities:
In 1992 we had 28 named storms, 16 hurricanes and 10 of them major. At 17, 12 and 8 we're close to breaking that with still more time left in the season.
-Mike Merin
Right now however we have Tropical Depression Polo, once a category 1 hurricane, that is moving offshore and slowly dissipating. Another storm though is currently south of Mexico and has a 60% chance of forming into a hurricane over the next 48 hours, and a 80% over the next 5 days. That one is slated to be named Hurricane Rachel once it intensifies.
The Climate Prediction Center did in fact call for a below normal season, and on average across the board there were predictions of 12 named storms, 6 of those hurricanes and 2-3 of those major. Right now we're just under halfway there for total storms and 2 away for both regular and major hurricanes.
The Pacific was of course higher for the average of predictions with 15 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes and 3 of those major. Again right now we're WELL above that average so that deserves a look at the record high activities:
In 1992 we had 28 named storms, 16 hurricanes and 10 of them major. At 17, 12 and 8 we're close to breaking that with still more time left in the season.
-Mike Merin
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