GFS/NAM are now both passing through NYC/LI with the mixing line, so the NAM remained the same and the GFS moved down by 5 miles. EURO surprisingly just moved from 10 miles south to 10 miles north. The correction for that seems to be based on stronger southerly winds coming off the Atlantic.
GFS: straight through NYC/LI
NAM: straight through NYC/LI
EURO: 10 miles north
GFS as such has increased the liquid precip as you go west towards NJ, however EURO has dropped. The problem I'm seeing with the EURO is that it's having problems determining how much ice is mixing in so its accumulation values are skewed. Once again if there's more mixing that occurs, less snow accumulation will occur but there's still a mix of rain and/or sleet occurring based on the area which will make things just as messy.
With that being said here are the similar but tweaked point forecasts for each area. The 1-2° shift has taken out quite a bit of sleet in the forecasts but has unfortunately replaced that with more freezing rain.
KNYC (Central Park)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-9PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.30-0.50" - snow 3-5"
6AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - freezing rain (.10-.30" ice) & sleet 1-2"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.02-.0.07" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-6" snow before the mix, another inch of snow after
KJFK (JFK Airport)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-10PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.05-0.13" - snow 0.50-1.25"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 3-5"
6AM-12PM: - liquid 0.50-0.70" - snow 0.50-1.5" mixing with rain 6AM-12PM 0.40-0.55" and mixing with freezing rain 12PM-6PM .15-.30"
6PM-9PM: - liquid .02-.05" - snow 0.25-0.50"
totals: 4-6" snow before the mix, trace snow after
KLGA (La Guardia Airport)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-10PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.15" - snow 0.50-1.50"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.35-0.60" - snow 3-7"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.40-0.60" - snow 1-2" mixing w/freezing rain (.10-.25" ice)
3PM-6PM: - liquid 0.02-.0.09" - snow 0.25-0.50" mixing w/freezing rain (.02-.10" ice)
6PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 5-8" snow before mix, trace after
KISP (Islip/McGarthur Airport)
6PM-10PM - liquid ~.01" - snow ~0.10"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.03-0.07" - snow 0.25-0.75"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 2-4"
6AM-12PM: - liquid 0.55-0.75" - snow 0.50-1.50" mixing with rain 0.45-0.65"
12PM-6PM: - liquid 0.15-.0.25" - 80% chance all freezing rain 0.15-0.25"
6PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 3-5" snow before mixing with rain, then ice, trace snow after
KEWR (Newark Airport)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-10PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.15" - snow 0.50-1.50"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.30-0.55" - snow 3-6"
6AM-3PM: - liquid 0.40-0.60" - snow 1-2" 6-8AM mixing with rain 0.05-0.15" then 8AM mixing w/freezing rain (.10-.20" ice)
3PM-6PM: - liquid 0.02-.0.09" - snow 0.25-0.50" mixing w/freezing rain (.02-.10" ice)
6PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-7" snow before mix, trace snow after
-Mike Merin
GFS: straight through NYC/LI
NAM: straight through NYC/LI
EURO: 10 miles north
GFS as such has increased the liquid precip as you go west towards NJ, however EURO has dropped. The problem I'm seeing with the EURO is that it's having problems determining how much ice is mixing in so its accumulation values are skewed. Once again if there's more mixing that occurs, less snow accumulation will occur but there's still a mix of rain and/or sleet occurring based on the area which will make things just as messy.
With that being said here are the similar but tweaked point forecasts for each area. The 1-2° shift has taken out quite a bit of sleet in the forecasts but has unfortunately replaced that with more freezing rain.
KNYC (Central Park)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-9PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
9PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.10" - snow 0.50-1.00"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.30-0.50" - snow 3-5"
6AM-3PM: - liquid 0.45-0.65" - freezing rain (.10-.30" ice) & sleet 1-2"
3PM-5PM: - liquid 0.02-.0.07" - snow 0.25-0.75"
5PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-6" snow before the mix, another inch of snow after
KJFK (JFK Airport)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-10PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.05-0.13" - snow 0.50-1.25"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 3-5"
6AM-12PM: - liquid 0.50-0.70" - snow 0.50-1.5" mixing with rain 6AM-12PM 0.40-0.55" and mixing with freezing rain 12PM-6PM .15-.30"
6PM-9PM: - liquid .02-.05" - snow 0.25-0.50"
totals: 4-6" snow before the mix, trace snow after
KLGA (La Guardia Airport)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-10PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.15" - snow 0.50-1.50"
1AM-5AM - liquid 0.35-0.60" - snow 3-7"
5AM-3PM: - liquid 0.40-0.60" - snow 1-2" mixing w/freezing rain (.10-.25" ice)
3PM-6PM: - liquid 0.02-.0.09" - snow 0.25-0.50" mixing w/freezing rain (.02-.10" ice)
6PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 5-8" snow before mix, trace after
KISP (Islip/McGarthur Airport)
6PM-10PM - liquid ~.01" - snow ~0.10"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.03-0.07" - snow 0.25-0.75"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.15-0.30" - snow 2-4"
6AM-12PM: - liquid 0.55-0.75" - snow 0.50-1.50" mixing with rain 0.45-0.65"
12PM-6PM: - liquid 0.15-.0.25" - 80% chance all freezing rain 0.15-0.25"
6PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 3-5" snow before mixing with rain, then ice, trace snow after
KEWR (Newark Airport)
1PM-6PM - liquid ~0.01" - snow ~0.10"
6PM-10PM - liquid .01-.02" - snow 0.10-0.20"
10PM-1AM - liquid 0.06-0.15" - snow 0.50-1.50"
1AM-6AM - liquid 0.30-0.55" - snow 3-6"
6AM-3PM: - liquid 0.40-0.60" - snow 1-2" 6-8AM mixing with rain 0.05-0.15" then 8AM mixing w/freezing rain (.10-.20" ice)
3PM-6PM: - liquid 0.02-.0.09" - snow 0.25-0.50" mixing w/freezing rain (.02-.10" ice)
6PM-9PM: - liquid <.05" - snow <.50"
totals: 4-7" snow before mix, trace snow after
-Mike Merin
Current storm. It'll get more mixed in around 24 hours.
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