The powerful storm shown below that brought severe thunderstorms, tornado warnings and waterspouts to Florida, heavy downpours to the deep south, and snowfall and freezing wintry mixes all the way through the Carolinas, will JUST be missing us. As I said yesterday, it's the difference only 40 miles makes. Tonight on the east end of Long Island and the southeast tip New England may see some passing drizzles or flurries, but other than that much of Long Island and especially the NY metro area should be in the clear.
Here's what that storm currently looks like (click to enlarge) as it crawls up the eastern seaboard but still just out of reach of us.
Here's what that storm currently looks like (click to enlarge) as it crawls up the eastern seaboard but still just out of reach of us.
As far as for something else out of reach for now but may be affecting us in the future, yesterday NOAA issued a statement that there's a 50% chance of an El Niño event happening this year, mainly in the Summer and Fall.
If you don't know what El Niño is, it's the major and widespread warming of the central and eastern pacific, not just the water temperature but the air around it as well. This creates a big shift in weather patterns across the pacific, but this is such a large scale that it can affect weather patterns across the globe.
Not it's only half a degree C° (or around 1°F) above average for three consecutive months, but it means that there is more warming of the atmosphere which leads to instability and therefore thunderstorms.
But another major change is in the jet stream. The lower jetstream ends up moving well north in the pacific, actually above Hawaii (giving them abnormally high temps), and extends all the way across the US mainly in the west and south.
But another major change is in the jet stream. The lower jetstream ends up moving well north in the pacific, actually above Hawaii (giving them abnormally high temps), and extends all the way across the US mainly in the west and south.
This would great for California, as the large amounts of precip would literally be shipped right to their front door and help combat their drought conditions.
There is another side-effect of this as well, and it's in the Atlantic. Because the thunderstorms lead out into the Western Atlantic, that means there's higher winds which means that they literally kill tropical storms before they have a chance to form. The term is called wind shear, which are cross winds that destabilize cyclones like hurricanes. Think of a pinwheel and it blowing in the wind, then go up to it and blow on it in another direction, it'll slow down or shake until it stops because the wind can't properly rotate it. That's what happens on a larger scale
We'll have to see if this prediction comes through as right now it's a 50/50 chance of happening. If it does though we'll notice the difference well across the US.
-Mike Merin
There is another side-effect of this as well, and it's in the Atlantic. Because the thunderstorms lead out into the Western Atlantic, that means there's higher winds which means that they literally kill tropical storms before they have a chance to form. The term is called wind shear, which are cross winds that destabilize cyclones like hurricanes. Think of a pinwheel and it blowing in the wind, then go up to it and blow on it in another direction, it'll slow down or shake until it stops because the wind can't properly rotate it. That's what happens on a larger scale
We'll have to see if this prediction comes through as right now it's a 50/50 chance of happening. If it does though we'll notice the difference well across the US.
-Mike Merin
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