Not to fret, no major weather on the way for the NY metro area, but there will be some snow Tuesday night for Long Island and especially in Connecticut and northward. Going throughout the week up to that point though:

Today's great weather with a mix of sun and clouds. You can see below that even the clouds for today won't be that thick so the sunshine will still prevail.

Tonight there's a slight chance of passing showers, and they'll be trace amounts. In fact most of the precip will be very scattered and well under .05".


Monday will still be warm, with the clouds turning to partly sunny akies in the afternoon. The scattering precip trend will continue tomorrow night as well but will be even less amounts. Below shows just how much the precip will break apart.

Going into Tuesday however, we'll see a small amount of precip at night. You can see where the blue line is designating where snow will start to fall rather than rain, but even then the temps will be fairly warm in the southern parts of that line so no snow will stick. For many areas, the snow will turn back into rain after some time. The line will be more north of Monday night's line.

It's going to be a mess starting tonight into Monday night. Along with high winds, many areas above central CT (or above NJ as you go more west, just follow the line in the map above) will be getting snow. Unfortunately as you go along that line and just south of it many areas will get widespread sleet, and freezing rain towards sunrise which can cause some ice for the morning commute. Below is what the precip looks like at the moment as well as what the fronts on the system looks like.

As that low moves east across the Great Lakes and pulls the cold front along with it, it will pick up speed and energy bringing heavy rain overnight, or heavy mixed or wintry precip as you go more north. Why the sudden burst? Take a look at the jetstream and you'll see why.

The current watches and warnings are below. White are for winter weather, the light green are for flood warnings, and the blue near Cape Cod are wind warnings.

As we go into the week, there's a large cold front extending across much of the northern US that will be causing quite a few problems. Below is what the current precip looks like.

The precip above will intensify as the storm funnels into a tighter area. This means that less areas will see precip, but those in the heart of it will have quite the headache. Places like St. Cloud MN for example will be seeing 11-15" of snow Monday. Below shows Monday mid-day and how the storm will become narrow but heavy.

Thanks to the low pressure systems just to the east of LI and off the coast of NC, we'll be seeing plenty of rain into tonight for the NY metro area, however once that NC low moves northward up the coast we'll REALLY start to winds kicking in.

Currently we're seeing Northerly winds 15-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH, but starting around 5AM tomorrow morning those will look more like:

NYC 20-25 MPH G40
Islip 30-35 MPH G45
Montauk 30-40 MPH G50
Cape Cod 30-40 MPH G55

The image above shows why as you go more east you'll have more winds for tomorrow morning. This is all due to how tight the pressure gradients are. The low with a pressure of 992mb will have the 1012mb line only 100 miles away, so around 1mb per 5 miles on average, fairly high for a non-tropical system.

So as the NY marathon starts out tomorrow morning, runners will have a very tough time for most of the race. Starting out in Staten Island and heading North, they'll have to run for 21 miles and travel through the Bronx before they can have the winds at their backs going south down 5th Avenue and through Central Park. At least they'll get their sec- okay I'll save you the pun.

I'll leave you with the map for tomorrow's race.

-Mike Merin