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Entering December: the week ahead

11/30/2014

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Not to fret, no major weather on the way for the NY metro area, but there will be some snow Tuesday night for Long Island and especially in Connecticut and northward. Going throughout the week up to that point though:

Today's great weather with a mix of sun and clouds. You can see below that even the clouds for today won't be that thick so the sunshine will still prevail.
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Tonight there's a slight chance of passing showers, and they'll be trace amounts. In fact most of the precip will be very scattered and well under .05".


Monday will still be warm, with the clouds turning to partly sunny akies in the afternoon. The scattering precip trend will continue tomorrow night as well but will be even less amounts. Below shows just how much the precip will break apart.
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Going into Tuesday however, we'll see a small amount of precip at night. You can see where the blue line is designating where snow will start to fall rather than rain, but even then the temps will be fairly warm in the southern parts of that line so no snow will stick. For many areas, the snow will turn back into rain after some time. The line will be more north of Monday night's line.
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White turkey for parts of The East....California to get rain.........

11/26/2014

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Storm moving up the East coast....6-10" from Appalachians thru Eastern Pa...into interior New England. Big cities will get rain...some sleet then some snow...but should escape the big snows.  The line between heavy snow and rain will be very close...and should storm shift 30-40 miles east... then more snow from Washington DC to Boston. Good news is that the storm moves out late tonight and little if any precip. should fall on Thanksgiving Day. Flurries will continue over Great Lakes as you can see that energy diving down the Plains.
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Map is valid for early this evening. Coastal storm is
south of Cape Cod...and that all important rain - snow line runs from Boston to NYC to Washington DC. Again..if that
storm jogs 25 miles to the east...then the snow line also
moves east. Time will tell.
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Above - storm track. The green..red...yellow colors show the positioning of other models...all of which are clustered in same area....agreement !
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Above...probability of 4" or more of snow. Notice the distance in the big cities between 10% (blue) and red (70%),
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Above....daytime temperatures expected next Wednesday.
Eastern half warms up..west cools down while California
get much needed rain....but with that will come mud slides and floods.  Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving .
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East Coast Storm to impact holiday travel Nationwide Wednesday.

11/25/2014

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Moisture along the east coast represents a frontal boundary. It is this front that will spawn a storm that will travel up the east coast Wednesday...fired by energy you see dropping down the Rockies.  Heavy wet snow will fall west of the I95 Corridor from DCA to Boston...where 8" +are possible. Close to the big cities...cold rain..mixes with wet snow and goes over to snow at night with accumulations there 1"-3".  Along the coast from NJ to Cape Cod...1" or less expected. 
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Map above valid for Wednesday a.m.  Storm off Carolinas heading north. Pink represents rain/snow line...over major cities.
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Above...timing and position of storm track along coast.
Clipper low in Plains will get absorbed by coastal storm.
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Map above is GFS model for next Monday. Notice the green in California. That's rain !  Finally....all of California will begin to get some rain...but certainly will not be a drought buster.  Be safe.  Later.
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Indian summer - east - then cold/white turkey ?

11/24/2014

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A wet windy front will lift into New England this morning...paving the way of a record breaking warm day for much of the Eastern Seaboard.  Energy diving down the Rockies will spark a storm in Gulf ...and that's trouble for The East.
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A windy front moves through The East late today. Lake effect snow for Great Lakes. Fair and colder much of the Nation. 
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This map is for Wednesday. Two players...one in Midwest..other along the Carolinas. The Carolina low will become the major storm and the system in Midwest will feed it..allowing it to move up the coast with a cold rain and wind going to snow. Many places west of the major cities
from DCA to BOS will get 4"-6".  The Big cities may also
result in some accumulation. All moving out by Thanksgiving morning.
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Amounts of precipitation that will fall Wed- Wed nite.
If all the precip were to be snow...the Northeast could
easily get 6"- 10".....but that will not be the case and since it will be wet snow...much less is expected.
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Probability of snow with Wednesday's storm. The red indicates the best possibility of 4" or more...green is
a moderate chance....blue is a slight chance. Good luck.
Be safe. Later.
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A Touch of Indian Summer ......

11/21/2014

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The jet is still far south but will change and head north allowing for temps to moderate over much of the Nation before cold air returns late next week.  
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Latest weather map shows high pressure in control...dry.
Low over Nevada will head east and grab moisture from the Gulf over the weekend.
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Canadian Model for Thanksgiving: Back on Monday is was showing a nor'easter for The East Coast....now...nothing.
Cold front in upper Lakes about the only thing...which could bring snow to that area.  Elsewhere...not bad...as per this model.  
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A Temperature Roller Coaster.....

11/20/2014

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Map above is valid for late today. More lake effect for the Great Lakes. Cold air east of The Rockies. Rain for west coast.
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Satellite shows the jet stream carved out thru much of the nation. Remember the dark areas are dry.....colors reflect
denser clouds and possible rain and snow. This pattern will change for a short time early next week and then revert right back to a cold one by Thanksgiving.
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This is the Euro Model for next Saturday. Only one of the long range models indicating a Northeast Storm and cold wave.  GFS model wants to bring snow to the Northeast on Black Friday....followed by cold air.  In any event, Thanksgiving Day thru much of the nation should be relatively quiet...cold.  More on that later.  Be safe.
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More mid-winter cold.....

11/19/2014

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Satellite shows how the jet stream continues to carve out much of the nation east of The Rockies. Lake effect snows will continue ...places like Buffalo/Hamburg NY have already received 4ft + and they will get another 1-2 ft.
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A reenforcing shot cold air heads across The Gt. Lakes today with more lake effect.  Showers So. Florida, rain along west coast.  Below...models for Thanksgiving Day.
All indicating about the same.
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Above..Canadian. Yesterday - forecasting a nor-easter for The East...today...Sunny and cold. A winter storm in Central Plains would mean bad weather there into Midwest...otherwise dry.
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Above - Euro Model - fair - dry - cold east. A strip of wintry precip from Gt. Lks to Midwest to Southern and Central Plains. 
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Above - GFS Model - dry weather most of the Nation...their version. Snow in upper Great Lakes otherwise cold for East...mild for west.   They will all come together by early next week. Be safe.....stay warm.
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Cold.....the weather word.

11/18/2014

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Satellite shows arctic cold front off east coast- yet to pass So. Florida. Lake effect snow over the Great Lakes otherwise dry.
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Map is valid for late today. Aside from the lake effect snow in the Great Lakes...it is a quiet cold time for much of the Nation. Below....models for NEXT Wednesday - Thanksgiving Eve. Top...Canadian - wants to bring a wintry nor'easter up the coast. Below...Euro Model - also shows a storm but keeps it far enough offshore.  Keep in mind that yesterday the thinking was mild.  Toss a coin...hard to call this far out.  Be safe...later.
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Arctic floodgates open up in The East.....

11/17/2014

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The black stripe from Pacific Northwest to Texas to Ohio Valley indicated the jet stream which is bringing down the next blast of arctic air...this one making it to the East Coast.
The array of colors in The East is rain....snow over Ohio Valley into Northern New England.  Notice the storms swirling off the west coast.  If any of those break through the ridge...it could be big trouble - winter-wise for the Nation.
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Map above - for late today. Arctic cold front moving off
East coast taking the rain with it. Lake effect snows will continue to fly downwind of the lakes...where a foot or more is possible over the next couple of days. Fair..cold..dry for the rest of the nation.
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Above....low temperature for next Monday. Notice how it is getting warmer in the East as we move into Thanksgiving week.  Long range....but our GFS model wants to make it sunny and mild for East by Thanksgiving ......could it happen...yes......will it happen, anyone's guess. Below...the GFS model for Thanksgiving Day.
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Above - GFS Model - shows mild for West and East Coasts...but cold central.  Snow for Upper Midwest and Great Lakes....rain Texas....Place your bets....!  Could almost guarantee it will change.  Be safe...late.
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A messy 36 hours for the Northeast

11/16/2014

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It's going to be a mess starting tonight into Monday night. Along with high winds, many areas above central CT (or above NJ as you go more west, just follow the line in the map above) will be getting snow. Unfortunately as you go along that line and just south of it many areas will get widespread sleet, and freezing rain towards sunrise which can cause some ice for the morning commute. Below is what the precip looks like at the moment as well as what the fronts on the system looks like.
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As that low moves east across the Great Lakes and pulls the cold front along with it, it will pick up speed and energy bringing heavy rain overnight, or heavy mixed or wintry precip as you go more north. Why the sudden burst? Take a look at the jetstream and you'll see why.
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The current watches and warnings are below. White are for winter weather, the light green are for flood warnings, and the blue near Cape Cod are wind warnings.
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Cold now....even colder next week !

11/14/2014

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You can see how the jet carved out s nice chunk of the nation from Pacific Northwest to Carolinas. The blue showing up off New England will be moving out this morning as rain and snow. The blue's out west will be the next storm to move east arriving on the east coast Monday only to be followed by a blast of arctic air. 
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This map is valid for Saturday evening. Storm moving thru Rockies producing rain ahead of it...snow with it. That's the system to bring inclement weather east early next week.
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This is the Canadian model valid for next Wednesday. Pretty similar to it's run yesterday showing arctic air flooding the East....with gusty winds and lake effect snows.
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This map shows how high (day) temperatures will average over the next 5 days. Blue = cold - which shows almost the entire nation below normal except out west. Have a safe weekend. 
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Wintry weather heads east.....

11/13/2014

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Follow the thin black line from the Rockies thru Plains up thru The Great Lakes.....that's the jet stream.  The white veil of moisture coming out of The Gulf of Mexico will combine and jet and produce a period of rain and snow from mid Atlantic to New England tonight. Some places from Eastern Pa...into interior New England will get 1-3" of snow..while near the coast....the first dusting is possible. 
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This map is valid for late tonight. Storm offshore will produce that rain and snow over Northeast...while lake effect snow will cover all of the Great Lakes and many places...dow-wind from lakes will pick up 4"-8" of snow. 
Rain and snow from Cascades into Rockies...higher elevations will see heavy snow. 
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Canadian model for next Wednesday. Very cold air...(blue shading) from upper Midwest to Mid Atlantic....I mean cold...like January.
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Map above shows low temperatures for next Wednesday.
Map below shows high temperatures for Wednesday...and that may be too warm.  Looks like mid next week will be the coldest for this entire cold wave pattern for The East.
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A little colder east, next week, alot colder.

11/12/2014

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Cold front moves off east coast today...but the sting remains out west. Aside from the Great Lakes...it is dry.
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Satellite shows polar vortex spinning away over Northern Plains...not likely to retreat back to Canada until mid next week.
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Upper air map over satellite clearly shows the polar low over North Dakota....taking up much of the nation. Another system should affect The East next Monday followed by a good punch of cold air. Until then....on the quiet side. Be Safe.
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Cold Stings Central....Pinches in the East

11/11/2014

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Small storm seen off The Georgia coast will moving northeast and should stay in Ocean. Cold front moving across The Great Lakes will usher in colder air late week for The East but not as bad as Central sections. 
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Map above shows cold front by late today...most of the snow north - Great Lakes into Canada.
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Map above shows sea surface temperatures. Far right you will see Mexico and Central America.  This shows a band of warmer temps. which could be a weak el nino....could be a big factor in the winter ahead.
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Map above shows how temperatures will average Nov. 16-20.....blue = cold / red = warm, below map for Nov. 18- 24.
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Above, upper air map for Sunday. Jet stream flows down The Rockies and back up The Appalachians. The dip represents where the coldest air will be (center)...all of which should change and shift east next week.  Until then...be safe. 
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Snowstorm North Central heralds in "The Arctic Express".

11/10/2014

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Storm in Iowa late today will bring 6"-12" of snow to upper Midwest and Great Lakes. As it races into Canada....mid winter cold will seep south into The Central U.S. and then slowly move east reaching the East Coast by late week in modified form.
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The blues and greens on satellite show the winter storm followed by a strong jet dropping down the Rockies. 
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Red lined area shows the best chance of 4" + snow in next 24 hours. 
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Above...expected nighttime temps for Friday. Below...expected daytime temps for Friday.
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Below....The Canadian and Euro Models for next
Wednesday ....over 1 week away.  Both showing more cold air .....will there be any snow with that ?   Stay tuned. Be safe.
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The week ahead: NE Sunny, Central-North Blizzards

11/9/2014

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As we go into the week, there's a large cold front extending across much of the northern US that will be causing quite a few problems. Below is what the current precip looks like.
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The precip above will intensify as the storm funnels into a tighter area. This means that less areas will see precip, but those in the heart of it will have quite the headache. Places like St. Cloud MN for example will be seeing 11-15" of snow Monday. Below shows Monday mid-day and how the storm will become narrow but heavy.
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Next week: First Cold Wave of the Season !

11/7/2014

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Next front moving through Plains...will be off east coast Sunday.  Way up in NW Canada....arctic cold front pushing south...will be in Northern Plains Tuesday and off east coast Thursday next week.
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Weather map for late Saturday. Cold front over Ohio Valley will speed off east coast. Low over North Dakota will drag arctic air south so by late next week...be ready.
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Above....projected low for next Friday in the arctic air.
Below...projected highs for next Friday.
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This map shows how daytime temps will average next week. Blue is below normal - cold - red is above - warm.
Have a nice - safe weekend.
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Slowing getting more winterlike......

11/6/2014

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Cold front bringing rain and some thunder in the East. Next front moving in to the Pacific Northwest.  Notice the swirl near Haiti. That is semi tropical.....but the black and brown in the circulation showing dry air moving into system so it should not become tropical and will stay in Atlantic.
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Map is for late today.  Storm in east with rain. Central nation- fair and dry.  Front in west with showers.
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Canadian model for next Thur. night. The green and blue indicate cold.....taking up much of The Nation.
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Above....high temperatures for next Thursday.  Below...low temperatures for next Friday morning.   Stay safe.
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Changes are plenty............

11/5/2014

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Cold front stretches from Western New York to Texas. The enhanced colors south of Texas is what's left to Vance. His moisture being pulled northeast by cold front. System over The Dakotas will merge with the front and produce wet weather in The East Thursday.....moving out Friday.
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This map shows temperature change in last 24 hours. Click on map to enlarge. You will notice that the blue/purple indicate a turn to colder....which ties in perfect with the front.
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This map is valid for late Wednesday. Wettest weather from
Texas to Appalachians.
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Amounts of rain expected Thursday ----> Friday. Heaviest will be Northeast...Northwest....and So. Texas. There is still a big question as to whether a storm in the Gulf of Mexico will travel up the Eastern Seaboard Sunday with more rain. Next week will see a record breaking cold air mass drop into the mid section of the nation and then move east. Be safe.....later.
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Warm wins out west....Victory for chilly east

11/4/2014

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Satellite above shows front from Great Lakes to Texas.
Moisture from Hurricane Vance ( Mexico) will get involved and heavy rains are possible up and down the front.
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Vance is losing it's definition...but another area of moisture to the southeast shows signs of injecting energy into the system before  hitting Mexico.  Track below. 
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While this surface map does not draw in the fronts...you can clearly see where it is by the rainfall plotted ( green).

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Above - The Japan model showing how much rain could fall Thurs/Friday.  It is wetter than most models...but may very well be right.
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Map above produced by our U.S. models...averaging 
about 1/2 of what the Japan model indicates.
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This is what the upper flow will look like by late week.
Ridge out west - warm - dry......trof East - chilly and unsettled.  Have a nice day....be safe.
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Quick changes all week.....

11/3/2014

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Next front moving into Plains. Notice the dip in the jet from The Pacific all the way down into Baja California. Off Mexico is Hurricane Vance.  Jet should pick moisture up from Vanace and send it east by end of week to east coast.
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High pressure over Carolinas will bring milder weather to East thru mid week. Front in Plains brings showery weather to center nation while another front continues the wet weather in the Pacific Northwest.
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This a picture of Hurricane Vance....105 mph winds off Mexico in Pacific. Storm will weaken and curve toward Mexico....as you can see in track below.
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Amounts of rain expected Thursday and Friday. Amounts may be underplayed in Northeast is moisture from Vance gets involved.
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Here is a shot of the part of the office that I personally work out of each weekday.  Any questions, just email me. Stay safe...later.
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Wet weather's here, and the wind's a-comin'

11/1/2014

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Thanks to the low pressure systems just to the east of LI and off the coast of NC, we'll be seeing plenty of rain into tonight for the NY metro area, however once that NC low moves northward up the coast we'll REALLY start to winds kicking in.

Currently we're seeing Northerly winds 15-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH, but starting around 5AM tomorrow morning those will look more like:

NYC 20-25 MPH G40
Islip 30-35 MPH G45
Montauk 30-40 MPH G50
Cape Cod 30-40 MPH G55
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The image above shows why as you go more east you'll have more winds for tomorrow morning. This is all due to how tight the pressure gradients are. The low with a pressure of 992mb will have the 1012mb line only 100 miles away, so around 1mb per 5 miles on average, fairly high for a non-tropical system.

So as the NY marathon starts out tomorrow morning, runners will have a very tough time for most of the race. Starting out in Staten Island and heading North, they'll have to run for 21 miles and travel through the Bronx before they can have the winds at their backs going south down 5th Avenue and through Central Park. At least they'll get their sec- okay I'll save you the pun.

I'll leave you with the map for tomorrow's race.

-Mike Merin
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    Genesis of a Tornado
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    Mike Merin

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