of Joaquin may move north to affect New England on Sunday or Monday.
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Joaquin is just about a hurricane east of Bahamas. The track is anything but sure. Most likely he will head toward the mid Atlantic Coast on Saturday. Below is the track by the hurricane center. Below....the various computer models and how they think he will track. Our thinking is Virginia.....and then the ghost of Joaquin may move north to affect New England on Sunday or Monday. The current map shows the cold front producing the rain in the East. Below that...the amount of rain expected over the next 7 days. Lastly...the early satellite/radar picture showing how the worst weather is in the east. Will continue to update as necessary. Stay safe.
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Cold front over Great Lakes with rain and storms. Tropical moisture sailing north from Gulf of Mexico promises to keep East wet all week. Below....surface map for this evening. Satellite pix of Tropical Storm Joaquin. He has 40 mph winds and is drifting west. Below...track expected by Hurricane Center. Below...track projected by hurricane models. Hard to say if any of these will be correct....will wait and watch. Rainfall expected today and tonight. Below...maps showing what each of the computer models are doing with Joaquin for this Saturday night. Good luck.
Be safe. Swirling low over the Carolinas will bring wind and wet weather to Mid Atlantic all weekend. Showers in Northwest. Map is for Saturday evening. Most of the nation's wet weather over Mid Atlantic and Southeast. Above...amount of rain expected over next 7 days. Below..how daytime temperatures will average over the next week.....mostly above normal. Above...track of tropical depression Ida....below...her poor satellite structure. FYI....The European Model - for first time - wants to form and bring a tropical system into the Mid Atlantic coast next weekend. First....it's way early.....Second - this is only the first time and we will need to see future runs of model and Third - the model has not done that well this season overall.
Below..I show it's prediction for Next Saturday and Sunday. Willing to bet that changes next week ( at least I hope so). Have a safe weekend. Moisture will continue for Mid Atlantic and Southeast. Wet weather upper Midwest heads into Canada. Unsettled for the Pacific NW. Map below shows how this moisture relates to weather systems. This pattern not expected to change much through the weekend. Below...track of Ida and her latest picture which does not indicate anything too healthy. In time...something will form in Gulf and we will take a look at that. Below...the UKMET - 5 days out....The Canadian -10 days out. Both showing some tropical system for Gulf but the Canadian is quite strong....sooner or later it will be right.
Be safe. Low off the Carolinas will produce locally heavy rain there through this weekend. Showers and storms coming out of the Rockies will hit the upper Midwest. Map above is for this evening. As explained above...low off SE Coast and in Plains are 2 wet weather makers. Most other places not bad for this...the first day of fall. Amounts of rain over the next 7 days include over 6" for N.Carolina. Tropical Storm Ida with 45 mph winds still meandering in Atlantic. Below...her satellite picture...rather healthy. Canadian model insisting on some sort of tropical system hitting Gulf Coast by Oct. 1st. Below that...the upper air map expected for early next week...which indicates a zonal flow and relatively mild temps.
Light showers ober Northeast...heavier rain over southeast. Locally heavy rain in the southwest. Storms in Northern Plains could become severe today. Below...see dark green areas for possibility for severe. Map above valid for this evening. High pressure controls much of the east. Low off the east coast bringing clouds and some rain for southeast coast and down across Fla. Cold front moving through Great Lakes...basically dry...some showers upper Midwest. Southwest gets soaked due to left over moisture from a tropical depression. Tropical Storm Ida with 40-mph winds just meandering and that expected into this weekend. Below...Canadian model trying to produce another tropical system in the Gulf 10 days out. It has been tropical-happy all season...none of which have panned out. Be safe. FYI.....Satellite pix of Ida.
Low off the southeast coast looks almost tropical...nevertheless it should moving northeast. Cold front in Midwest causing storms there...followed by more storms in Plains. Dark green and yellow indicate places where storms may be severe today. Tropical Atlantic: # 1 - shows best chances of forming into a tropical storm but a long ways away. Depression # 9 weak and moving north. Disturbance #2 - could become better organized but moving northeast. Below...pictures of Nine and # 1. Have a nice ans safe weekend.
The southeast will continue to be wet next couple...as well as the Northern Plains and Midwest....and Pacific Northwest. Below...today's risk of severe weather in dark green and yellow....which correlates nicely with radar above. Below...map valid for this evening....showing cold front moving through Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts expected over the next 7 days. Florida gets over 3".....while Great Lakes down to Southern Plains receive over 2". Tropical Depression # 9 has 35 mph winds but not expected to become a storm. Below..a satellite picture showing
it...as well as another disturbance to it's east. Be safe. Satellite/radar composite shows large area of wet weather over Florida associated with upper air disturbance. Showers in upper Midwest with a front....as well as showers coming into The Rockies. Weather map illustrates what we have just covered above. Below...dark green indicates areas today that may get some severe storms. Below...2 satellite pictures showing the tropical Atlantic. The 2 disturbances highlighted are given high chances of forming into depressions or storms...so we will be watching those....otherwise.... be safe and enjoy.
Not much to talk about....showers in Northeast moving out....some storms from southwest into southern plains. Map above for this evening. Most the wet weather western third of the Nation...and Florida. Red "x" next possible tropical system...although satellite pix this morning looks weak and ill defined. This is how temperatures will average over the next 7 days.
Red = above normal....etc. Below....average rainfall for the next 7 days. Be safe. Radar - satellite shows one front moving off New England with the next front over the MIssissippi Valley. That could mess things up in the Northeast Saturday. Elsewhere....quiet. Below...Amounts of rain expected across the NAtion on Saturday. Below...map for Saturday...showing cold front and low bearing down on East. Tropical Storm Henri in Atlantic and moving away as it weakens. Lastly, prayers for all the families that lost their loved ones of this tragic day when the World Trade Center crumbled.Being in New York City when it happened, I will never forget the fright and fear.....which was nothing compared to those who gave up their lives. Be safe.
Satellite/radar shows front #1 bearing down on the east with rain.....while front # 2 moves across the Gt. Lakes. Moisture from "Linda" is over the southwest. Map valid for Thursday night....showing one front east coast...other going through the Midwest. Below...risk of severe weather today in dark green and yellow. Below....newly formed Tropical storm Henri....east of Bermuda and moving north.......then Storm Linda...off
Baja Ca., moving west. Be safe. Map for this evening shows cold front moving toward east coast with needed rain and storms. Cool air continues to move into Northern Plains. Satellite and radar show cold front moving through Ohio Valley as moisture from Linda in Pacific gets dragged along. Below...risk of severe weather today in dark green. Below...amounts of rain expected Thursday. Below...track and satellites for the following in this order:
first - Hurricane Linda in the Pacific off Baja. Second - tropical depression Grace in Atlantic moving toward Leeward Island. Third - new tropical depression east of Bermuda moving north. Be safe. Satellite/radar shows showers from New England to Upper Midwest . This front will head east and not make it to the East Coast until Friday. Ahead of it...hot - humid- in back of it...cool and dry....along it...showers and storms. Below...today's risk for severe weather in dark green. Below...amounts of rain expected with the front for late week. Above...tropical Atlantic - showing Grace - tropical storm...and 2 other disturbances that show little promise of intensifying. Below...Grace and her track. Below...Hurricane Linda - off Baja California and her track.
Be safe. Wet weather Northern Rockies and Plains.....right through weekend. Map for this evening. Wet weather confined to southeast, Rockies and Northern-tier. Below...risk of severe today in dark green and yellow. Below...what the maps will look like for the next week. Front out west does not make it to the east until next Thursday. Below....map showing the Atlantic: Fred ...who will stay out in Atlantic...new disturbance coming off Africa looks like it could already be a tropical storm. If so...it will be given the name Grace....track by models also below. Have a safe weekend.
Storms in Great Lakes....Gulf States....Southwest and Northwest....rest of the nation....quiet. Cold front will shave off the humidity in The Northeast....staying Hot and Humid in the south. Cold front moving out of the Rockies will bring wet weather from the Southwest through the Rockies and into the Plains this holiday weekend. Be safe.
Strong storms in upper Midwest....across Louisiana...otherwise wetter and cooler for Pacific Northwest. Below....severe threat today....dark green. Below...weather map for late today. Cold front coming down from Canada will bring a break in heat and humidity to Northeast and Mid Atlantic this weekend. Chart below shows rainfall amounts over the next 7 days. Below...high temperatures for next Wednesday....announcing a cool down. Above...Fred is still a tropical storm and will stay in the Atlantic. Below....tropical depression south of Baja Ca.,
will head north. Will it bring needed rain to California....need to wait and see. Be safe. Fred has weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds and will continue to weaken today. Below...expected track which keeps him at sea. Hurricane Jimena will continue to move west - northwest and should stay away from Hawaii. Track below. Below...current satellite and radar which shows quiet weather over much of the Nation. Below...how temperatures are expected to average through Sept. 14...coolest weather in the Plains. Be safe.
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We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.
Pat Pagano,
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