Satellite shows a band of moisture in the Central US driven by a storm in Plains. It will move east and reach the East Coast on Friday. The plume of moisture in the Pacific rising over Alaska and headed south will produce several systems in the North this weekend and early next week...some of which will bring heavy snow to Great Lakes and Northeast. Below...weather map for tonight...depicting the above. Following that map...today's outlook for severe weather in green and yellow. Below...the various models and their thinking for a clipper storm in the East next Monday/ Tuesday. As you can see ...the track differs greatly and that will affect what it produces. No doubt...New England will get white...but how white ? Stay tuned and stay safe.
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Satellite radar shows powerful storm off New England with strong winds there today. Large area of wet weather in Gulf heads for Florida...even though it is their dry season. Next system in Rockies could be a major spring storm for much of the nation rest of this week. Map for this evening shows next Spring storm gathering strength in Rockies. Below...various models depicting the burst of cold air for the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Picture of ash plume from Alaskan volcano stretching for over 400 miles. As long as it calms down it should not affect weather patterns. Be safe.
Satellite - radar shows a front moving across the East Coast. It will stall in the south. Another front in Rockies will head east to affect the East by Monday. Map above is for Easter Sunday. Wet weather over the Gulf States...Ohio Valley and Midwest. Rain and snowshowers for the Great Lakes. More rain and snow in the Northwest. Above....current upper air map showing jet stream over the Midwest. Below ...upper air map projected for end of March. This upper air map indicates fair and warmer for the East...unsettled for Rockies and Plains. Below...models still indicating cold for the East for start of April. Aim - Great Lakes and Northeast. Have a happy and safe Easter Weekend.
Satellite shows intense storm in Missouri bringing blizzard conditions to Plains....and potential severe thunderstorms to Gulf States. Map is valid for Thursday afternoon with a wintry mix in Northern New England....Great Lakes. Rain and storms over Ohio Valley and south. More rain and snow in the Northwest and Rockies. Threat of severe weather in dark green and yellow above. Above...GFS Model for Easter Sunday afternoon. Green indicates rain.....blue indicate snow. Below...the 3 major models all predicting some very cold air trying to come south out of Canada for next weekend. So much for the ground hog. Be safe.
Map above for Wednesday evening. Storm in Central Plains will cause wet weather from Midwest to Northeast with snow and sleet on northern edge. Thunderstorms across the Mississippi Valley. Scattered snow in Rockies...showers in the Northwest. Below...Satellite - radar shows it very well. Below are the different models and their projections for Easter Sunday. Almost all indicating wet weather for the Central U.S. while both coasts are dry. Below...plain old map of how we think it will look on Easter Sunday as well as afternoon temperatures. Finally...the Euro for next weekend......depicting an unseasonable storm for the East. We shall see. Stay safe.
Satellite shows next system in Rockies headed out through the Plains. This system will reach East Coast early Friday. Map above for Tuesday evening. Storm in Central Plains will bring lots of wind to the Plains....snow to Rockies...rain elsewhere. ABove....temperatures expected for this Easter Sunday. Below...various computer models for Easter Sunday. Most showing the same thing....wet Central....Fair East and West.
Be safe. Snow in the Northeast moving out today with sun coming in and melting anything that falls. System in West will head east and bring showery - windy weather to Plains then east coast by end of week. Weather map for Monday evening. Snow event moving out of New England. System out west heads east and will move off
East coast by Friday. Most of the models indicating a fair pattern for this Sunday, Easter. GFS wants to make it rain for the East. Below...various models and their predictions. Stay safe. For the fourth model in a row the start time has been delayed. They have also agreed it will start as mixed precipitation before turning to all snow around 9PM for NYC, 7PM for Long Island.
They've also finally agreed that there will be almost no precipitation to start but primary at night, then tapering off again towards the morning. The end time has been extended by an hour, however temperatures will already increase well above freezing and will be a mix of rain/snow. At the onset, temperatures will be around 37-39°F causing the mixed precip. Around sundown around 9PM temps will still be around 34-36°, and temperatures won't be dipping to the freezing mark around 3-5AM for NYC, 1AM for Long Island. Unpaved surfaces will have slightly less accumulations, paved surfaces will retain the higher temperatures longer so they'll have less accumulations shown below. Our current estimate for snowfall and actual accumulation, and start/end times: NY metro area: 1-2" falling, .50-1" less accumulating 8PM - 8AM Inland Northern NJ, Lower Hudson Valley .50-1.5" falling, .50" less accumulating 7PM - 8AM West/Central Connecticut: 1-2" falling, most accumulating 7PM - 8AM Eastern Connecticut: 4-7" falling, .50-1" less accumulating 8PM - 11AM Nassau: 3-4" falling, 1-2" less accumulating 7PM - 10AM Suffolk: 4-5" falling, 1-3" less accumulating 7PM - 10AM East Suffolk/Montauk: 5-7" falling, 1-3" less accumulating 7PM - 11AM NYC Snowfall Timeline (again, less will accumulate with temps above freezing): 9PM to 12AM: .50-1" possible, mainly on unpaved surfaces, will be slushy 12AM to 8AM: .50-1" possible, most accumulations happening after 3AM when temps drop to the freezing mark Sunday temps 37-39°, Sunday night temps 34-36° before 3AM, down to 32° around 5AM Monday morning: up to 35°F around sunrise at 7AM, then gradually up to 48°F, snow should be all gone by Monday night for NYC, for accumulations above 3" possibly Tuesday. -Mike Merin Minimal accumulation changes at this time from last night, lowering the values ever so slightly by an average of 0.50".
They have also raised the temperatures up by 1° meaning for the NY metro area which will see 35° there will be less initial accumulation of snow as it will melt instead, and there may be slight mixing with sleet/rain. Slightly more will accumulate on onpaved surfaces. However the bigger change is how the storm will be moving, which is slightly more south. This means that NYC may see less with long island (especially east) still seeing similar values. The GFS moved the storm 10-20 miles SE, the NAM is remaining well south with far less accumulations, and the EURO has started to also track south slightly. The common theme is a first snowfall time on Sunday between 11am-1pm, ending at night between 6am-8am Our current estimate for snowfall and actual accumulation, and start/end times: NY metro area: 2-3" falling, .50-1" less accumulating SUN 12PM - MON 7AM Inland Northern NJ, Lower Hudson Valley 1-2" falling, .50" less accumulating SUN 12PM - MON 5AM Connecticut: 1-3" falling, most accumulating SUN 12PM - MON 5AM Eastern Connecticut: 3-4" falling, .50" less accumulating SUN 1PM - MON 9AM Long Island: 3-5" falling, 1-2" less accumulating SUN 12PM - MON 8AM NYC Snowfall Timeline (again, less will accumulate with temps above freezing): Little if any accumulation up to 2PM. 2PM to 6PM: .50-1" possible, mainly on unpaved surfaces 6PM to 2AM: 1-2" possible 2AM to 8AM: .50 possible Sunday temps 33-35°, Sunday night temps 33-35° before 2AM, down to 31° around 5AM, Monday temps to 45° Old front is draped over the south and satellite shows moisture from Gulf to Carolinas.....fact # 1. Energy is seen in Central Plains - fact #2. Cold air is moving across the Lakes into the Northeast - fact #3. Map above for Saturday evening. Duo storm system in the southeast spreading snow to Mid Atlantic. While I don't see this storm becoming a monster...it may loop more northward and hit the Northeast will a plume of moisture that could result in heavy snowfall Sunday- Sunday night. On the other hand...if it stays just offshore...only light snow is possible. You will notice in all of the models below...that the majority has the storm closer to the coast as compared to further away. Very Interesting ! This map would lean toward heavy snow for much of the Northeast of 6" or more. Below.....upper air maps which show enough energy for this low to pack a punch. I don't see the trof taking on negative tilt until Monday...as which time it will be off Nova Scotia. Finally...the models. Notice how the majority keep storm closer to the coast. Northeast ......keep the shovel handy. Have a nice weekend and Spring arrives at 12:30 am SUnday.
Another front moving out of Great Lakes will touch off some showers for St. Patty's Day into the Northeast. New England may even have a thunderstorm. Threat of severe weather today in dark green and yellow. Today's map shows unsettled weather all across the Northern-tier of the U.S....and in the south. That wavy front in the south will produce a storm this weekend....which should get taken up along the east coast Sunday - into Monday. Heavy wet snow is possible from the Northern Appalachians into New England. Many places may see a few inches of wet snow....with the heaviest across New England...depending on how the storm tracks. This is March and anything can happen....so hopefully we will have this fine tuned tomorrow. Below...the various models and how they are predicting this storm for Sunday in the East. Be safe and Happy St. Patty's Day. Here is a look of what temperatures will be like this Sunday...the first day of spring.
An intense storm in Great Lakes will bring high winds to that region today...over 55 mph. Showers moving out ahead of that storm. Colder air moving in behind that storm. System in Gulf Of Alaska will dive southeast and will result in a east coast storm Monday. Models all over the place with it...but could bring some snow to Northeast. Big wind storm in Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. Showers in Northeast...Gulf States. Snow in No. Rockies...and
upper Midwest. Below...the various models of what they think of the storm this coming Monday for the East Coast.....a miss or hit ? You take your pick. Be safe. Potent system in Plains will give them a good smack...but it will weaken as it moves east. Colder air will be following to the east coast this weekend....but right now...any big storm is off as compared to yesterday's on. Storm in Midwest will turn into a wind maker for Great Lakes...while snow flies in The Rockies. Above - how daytime temperatures will average through next Tuesday. Blue - colder...red - warmer. Below...amounts of
precip. through next Tuesday. Spring arrives this Sunday. Be safe. Weather systems are just flying across the Nation. One in the East...Another in Great Lakes...and a third coming into the Rockies. Map above is for Monday evening. Most of the weather systems - liquid...except for the Northern Rockies which will have cold air and snow associated with it. Rainfall - mostly - for today and tonight. Below...the different models and their [projection for a large storm this coming Sunday in the East. Amazingly...they are all similar...so far in advance. Be safe.
Satellite shows plume of moisture still hammering the Gulf States while the next band of rain heads in along the west coast. Map above is for today. Wet weather continues in the south. Dry and pleasant Great Lakes and east...as well as Plains Another wet system for the West Coast. Above map is for 10 days away...and shows upper air. Light blue shows falling pressure....red - rising. The rising red indicates a ridge which usually mean dry....while blue is just the opposite. Models are indicating a turn back to winter for the East in next 10 days or so.
Below...3 models for next weekend: GFS and Euro want to bring a storm into the east for weekend - 3-18-19......while the Canadian says....too fast - it will wait for Monday. We shall see. Have a nice and safe weekend. Satellite shows jet stream coming from Hawaii...down into Mexico and then turning north across Texas....producing the excessive rain and severe weather. This pattern will not change much of the next couple. Map is for this evening showing slow moving front in Central U.S. with all of the rain. Another system moving into the Pacific NW. Below...threat of severe weather today in dark green and yellow.... right over Texas. Map below....amounts of rain expected today. In southeast Texas....over 6" expected. Above....upper air map for March 24th. This indicates that the moisture gets bumped east as a ridge builds over the Rockies and Plains. That leaves a trof to intensify over the East which can not only lead to wet weather...but colder weather. Ummmmm! Be safe.
Early morning temperatures: notice the warming in central third. That's headed east. Below...today's weather map....notice the rains and snows cover the western third. Even though some of that moisture will head east...alot of it will weaken upon reaching the east later this week. Above...amounts of rain projected today. So. California and Texas and Oklahoma are the target spots. BE safe.
System crossing Midwest reach the east tonight ...mainly as rain. System in West will reach east coast Friday with some snow and rain. Map for this evening showing system # 1 moving out of Ohio Valley with mainly rain. System # 2 out west. Above...map for Friday showing a storm off N.Carolina....elsewhere- relatively quiet. Below...daytime temperatures expected for next Tuesday......can you see the warm up ? Below...the upper air map for early next week. Fits nicely with the temperature projection above. Stay safe.
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We'll have daily weather discussions, talking about major systems on the horizon along with anything noteworthy that pops up on our radar.
Pat Pagano,
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