Yellow area...from New Jersey thru NYC/ Long ISland and Conn. are under the gun for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday night - after midnight.
Satellite picture shows double-barreled jet stream over The Great Lakes headed east.....while tropical storm Simon brings heavy rains to Baja, Ca. and then Arizona and New Mexico.
Map above is valid for Tuesday evening. Cold front moving into Appalachians with rain and storms...while Simon heads for The Southwest. Below...amounts of rainfall expected today and tonight.
This is the Canadian Model: sooner of later this model will be right as per the tropics. Focus your attention on Florida...where this model wants to bring a tropical storm or hurricane to the Sunshine State by mid next week. The Low over the Northeast is not tropical but could be a trouble maker there. Stay safe. Later.